Flax acres are estimated to be the same as last year, but with an improvement to the 5-year average yield, the 2020 crop would be 50-60,000 tonnes larger than the 2019 crop. Product left in the bins consists of mostly lower quality, which has kept prices supported. Milling flax is still indicating $16.00/bu FOB, while #1, on average, is sitting around $15.00/bu picked up. New crop brown flax can be signed up at $13.00/bu, FOB farm with act of God. The Black Sea region is signaling an increase in flax acres for 2020 and the growing conditions in Kazakhstan have been favorable. The US will continue their demand until new crop is available and will continue to be a dominant market for Canadian supplies as US crushers also have short supply south of the border.
The yellow pea market has softened a bit to start the week. Off their highs of the year, yellows are currently being bid at $7.50/bu FOB farm location dependent. Green peas are holding steady though, with bids still ranging from $10.50 – $11.00/bu FOB. A review of our exports show that China has been the main importer of Canadian peas for their expansion into the fractionation industry. Next year’s exports are going to depend heavily on China and as long as they remain an active buyer, we will see our supplies tighten up, which is should be supportive to pricing. New crop bids are at $7.00/bu FOB on yellows and $9.00/bu FOB on green peas. Maple peas are still holding steady at $9.00/bu on both old and new crop bids.
Feed barley prices remain propped up this week, as we’ve seen for the last little while. One concern always in the back of our mind: How high can these values go before feed lots will start to buy corn? Luckily, our weak Canadian dollar is likely making that purchase a bit tough, but at some point values will warrant the use of US corn. For now, we enjoy the strong market and continue to suggest making sales. Some of the reason we see these steady values is lack of producer sales over harvesting the remaining crop and seeding. We could see an influx of product now that many are wrapping up. With that being said, feed barley prices have range between $4.00 to $4.50/bu FOB depending on location.
Chickpeas saw a bump last week for a brief period with current crop trading at $0.29-$0.30/lb location dependant. The nearby market has been experiencing a yoyo effect for the last several months with no end in sight. Prices flatlined and then, boom, here’s $0.03/lb to fill a need. Wait 5 mins, prices go back down. A relatively large depletion in carry is the correction needed to change this pattern. Growers who have been placing targets are the ones that benefit from this style of market movement. Buyers see the opportunity, take the bait and quietly go about their business. No ripples in the water to bull up the market. New crop chickpeas have been unseasonably quiet for the same reason, over supply, under demand. Buyers have very little on the books so either they take positions relatively soon or continue with this yoyo marketing as we move through summer and fall.
Oats continues to hold their own in the market, with feed prices hanging tight at $2.65 – $3.00/bu FOB farm with the latter more so attainable in eastern and southern Saskatchewan. Old crop milling values are also staying strong with $4.55/bu delivered into Manitoba for June/July movement. So, in the right locations, watch for very attractive FOB farm values. New crop values are around, but the strength once again reigns supreme near the Sask/Man boarder with $3.00/bu FOB farm attainable. Call you Rayglen merchant for pricing specifics in your area.
July canola futures remain very flat this week after taking a big dive two weeks ago. Most of those losses came directly from soybean price drops due to trade issues between the U.S. and China. Little movement keeps the July futures price for canola at $460.70/MT at time of writing, compared to $462/MT at the same time a week ago. Local basis levels will vary as always but these futures put us around $9.75-$10/bu delivered into the plant. There isn’t much in the way of carry when looking into the November futures, which are sitting at $468/MT today.
Most of the mustard seems to be planted at this point. We are hearing some reports of severe flea beetle damage in mustard and canola in dry areas in the central south of the province. Prices though, have remained fairly neutral over the past week. It might be a good time to put some new crop on the books at 10 bushels per acre with act of god as there are still some great contracts available. Spot oriental mustard sits at 27 cents for Forge and 25 cents for Cutlass, for summer movement from June to July. New crop is sitting at 29 cents FOB for Forge or Vulcan and 27 cents now for Cutlass. Yellow mustard remains around 36 to 37 cents for spot and new crop. Brown trades at 27 to 28 cents FOB for spot and as high as 30 cents for new crop. Call your merchant with any offers and to talk possible targets.
The canary market has been getting a bit stronger in recent weeks. On the new crop side of things, bids from a few buyers have firmed back up to 25 cents FOB farm with an act of God. We have even saw a few grower targets catch a little better deal, so make sure you use those targets! Spot prices have still been trading in the 27 to 29 cent/lb range depending on area, movement timelines and quality of product. Usually, this time of year we would see prices trail off some, but they still have held up despite not too many buyers queuing up to purchase. Supply is tighter than we have seen in quite a while, but you can still find product around and the seeded acres are slightly up from the lows of last year. The growing season will tell a lot about what this price does going into the fall but there is not a lot of room for error with this crop so things may be interesting if hot and windy is the summer climate.
Lentils markets received good news out of India with the government relaxing lentil tariffs over summer month shipments. The tariff exemption expires on the 31st of August and we will have to wait and see if they continue the exemption into the new crop year. This news brought on an increase in red lentil bids, but those prices did not last long. Reds hit as high as 33 cents delivered yesterday, but now are hovering around the 31-cent market. New crop reds remain in the 25-27 cent range. Spot large green lentil prices have not changed since last week, while new crop large greens seem to be priced all over the place. Bids on #1’s are 30-32 cents with #2’s at 28-30 cents. With all the price fluctuations this week, having targets in place is a perfect way to take advantage of the spikes.
The feed wheat market remains steady this week no change in pricing. Product continues to trade at $5.10-$5.50/bu FOB farm depending on location. Strongest prices are further west with most product heading to southern Alberta. If you have feed wheat and looking to have it moved before harvest now is a great time to get booked as most buyers are booking for June/July movement. These prices are based on minimum 58 lb wheat with a maximum moisture of 14.8%. We do have homes for product not meeting those specs, with discounts to apply. Good #1 spring wheat with a 13.5% protein is sitting between $6.30-$6.40 delivered elevator. New crop sits about 10 cent lower for September delivery. October pricing is trading at $6.35-$6.40.
Soybean prices remained firm on recent Chines purchases, slow farmer sales as growers continued to be preoccupied with spring fieldwork and some support from the biodiesel sector. Local soybean bids continue to hover around $10.00/bu picked up depending on location. Faba export demand is limited with small opportunities at $9.00 picked up. Faba feed bids still hanging on near $6 picked up. Firm prices available for any old crop dry bean inventory based on last year’s North American production shortfall. New largely contracted and acres are anticipated to be up 12% year over year.
Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.