Chickpea overseas markets remain quiet with values scaling back to the Canadian grower around $0.24/lb off the farm. It seems the Indian election about to happen is buzz worthy news, but since desi chickpea values are cheaper than a kabuli today, there is little incentive for the Indian government to lift restrictions for trade. We have already been seeing the word “drought” be tossed around in weather predictions, but general feel is that it is premature. Expect old and new crop values to remain in the current range as there is a lot of global supply that needs to be worked through before we see any firm trend upwards.
The pea markets are showing a bunch of uncertainty for the future with India and China. Due to these constraints, buyers have been cautious with their bids. Unfortunately, we aren’t expecting a quick fix to these overseas markets either. Currently, yellow peas are trading at $6.25-6.50 FOB on old crop and new crop values are trading at $6/bu. However, we have seen some buyers push bids down into the 5’s. Green peas historically still sitting at favorable values of $8/bu FOB on new crop and old crop is trading at $14/bu delivered into the South West of Saskatchewan. Taking advantage of any old crop green pea sales would be beneficial as we have seen some buyers considering closing the gap between old crop and new.
This week we are seeing a bit of a pull back on barley. With this beautiful weather, southern Alberta has started seeding, which means new crop is only a few months away. At this point buyers are starting to get covered until new crop comes off, so they are not as “hungry” for barley. Corn is also trading for lower values, which in turn brings down our barley market. Spot contracts right now are sitting between $4.30-4.70/bu FOB farm, on min 42mt loads. If you are on road bans that may affect your price due to dead freight. New crop values are still available at $3.85/bu FOB farm with an act of God for Jan-Mar movement. New crop malt is also still available with prices ranging from $4.90-5.30/bu FOB farm depending on movement and freight.
Mustard remains stable this week. The problems with China and canola continue and it’s starting to look like a quick resolution will not be reached as once hoped. Will we see a last-minute shift into some mustard acres? A cheap to grow alternative with good returns? We will see how this pans out over the next couple of weeks. New crop bookings have been fairly steady as mustard is still one of the bright spots for the 2019 planting season. Contracts are available up to 36 cents on yellow, 30 cents on brown and 26 cents on new crop Forge or Vulcan type oriental. If you have Cutlass, new crop at 25 cents is available. Spot prices are at 35 cents on yellow, 30 cents on brown and 24 cents on oriental, depending on variety. Seed is pretty well wrapped up for the year and we thank you for your continued support!
Canola right now is in a whirlwind as we creep closer to seeding and China plays chicken with Canadian supply. There has definitely been a reaction from the industry by a reconsideration of oilseed rotation as well as a softening on the market on the buy side. There were several contracts written last week based off of $10/bu FOB farm offers for 4th quarter 2019 and first quarter 2020 as the uncertainty grows day by day. It is a general consensus that China will return to trade but when they do it will be on their terms and at what they feel the value is. Spot values hover at that $10-10.20/bu delivered facility and recommendation is to consider putting in targets for deferred delivery programs.
Milling wheat prices remain low this week as markets have not reacted much to recent news. Bids for #1 hard red spring wheat are ranging from mid-$6’s to low $7’s delivered to elevator with the latter being in light trade for high protein markets. Durum indications remain in the mid $6/bu territory as of late. Feed wheat bids are still touching the $6/bu mark in certain areas of the province where freight allows, which is why we are seeing lower quality wheat and durum getting moved into the feed market still. In less attractive freight areas the feed bids are closer to $5.50/bu range as of late. Depending how dry this spring carries on we may see some renewed feed interest as we move towards the summer.
Very little news on canary seed this week as bids have remained stagnant. Old crop canary seed is trading between 23-23.5 cents/lb FOB farm depending on location. We are in line with five-year average canary seed exports at 74,600 MT and with buyers not needing to reach up for product we may not be as tight on stocks as originally thought. New crop bids are still showing 21 cents/lb picked up on farm for a September – December movement. These contracts include a full Act of God clause, including drought, on the first 10 bu/acre.
There has been some movement of flax funnelling into the west coast indicating that the Chinese demand is still around. Though, many are cautious due to the recent trading circumstances. This coupled with a decreased supply level on the farm and underreported stock, Canadian supplies are becoming a bit more restricted thus providing some market support. Somewhat concerning is the recent USDA report that shows a large uptick in flax acres. The increased tonnage may be enough to reduce import requirements. As such, expect to see the bidding soften as Canada relies heavily on the US. Flax is currently trading at $13.50/bu delivered to multiple Saskatchewan locations.
As fast as lentils moved up in price it disappeared again. Lentils are just going to remain unstable until foreign markets start taking product. Most buyers are only buying what they need, so most bids are for a specific tonnage amount and once they fill, deal is done. We saw the price increase in the red lentil market last week due to a processing advantage, however, there are reports of increased Indian values, which drove the North American. This was speculation that the Indian harvest may not be producing as well as hoped. As the week went on the markets topped out and have now slipped again. The lentil market has a bunch of unknowns and until it’s sorted out we will remain to see fluctuations. Once the market gets a handle on actual yields in India, the outcome from the India elections and the Canadian seed acreage, we may have a clearer picture of future bids. With markets moving as much as they are, staying in touch with your merchant will give you the best information on what is taking place and when to take advantage of small rallies.
Steady as she goes in the oat market. Prices have not fluctuated very much in the past week. Oat prices have been trading between $2.50 – $2.65/bu based off feed quality specs. Good quality milling oats have been trading around $3.00/bu FOB the farm. Oat prices have not been affected by the overseas issues that have come up in the past few months. Of course, the closer you are to Manitoba the better the price will be due to freight advantages. There also are some buyers who will look at a bit of new crop; call your Rayglen merchant for details and a price in your area.
Soybeans are trading range-bound with the threat of trending lower. Lack of fresh export news out of China this week as trade talks continue has traders wondering how many more acres could move to beans on planting delays with corn and spring wheat. Old crop soybean carryout is still burdensome. USDA’s April report yesterday didn’t have any major surprises and more soybean acres are likely to be planted than the USDA indicated in the end of March report. Rallies on a trade deal with China are the best hope. Soybean local bids are trading at $10.15/bu picked up on farm. Old crop faba bean market remains the same with buyers on the lookout for scarcely remaining #2 quality with bids in that $11/bu delivered range and feed fabas are in the range of $6/bu picked up. European demand for Canadian white beans remains solid and should provide on-going new crop support.
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