Canaryseed experienced a slight uptick in old crop value this week, with trades occurring in the range of $0.41/lb FOB farm for spring shipment. However, new crop bids weren’t as active and remain unchanged and at $0.35/lb FOB farm, including an act of God clause. It seems the majority of buyers are still content with current values, hinting their coverage on both old and new crop has left them mostly satisfied in their positions. This is not to say they won’t take on additional sales, rather their willingness to increase bids seems unlikely. That said, there is always a chance to negotiate an additional cent or two back into the farm by having slightly higher offers posted for any potential short covering opportunity and/or if new pockets of demand emerge.

Green pea markets experienced some action this week with new crop offers trading at $13.50 – $14/bu picked up with an act of God (AOG) and old crop hitting the books at $19.00 – $19.50/bu FOB farm or $20.00/bu delivered. Old crop yellow peas bids are firm as well, now quoted at $13.00/bu picked up or higher in some areas, while new crop trades at $10.00 – $10.50/bu picked up with AOG, depending on location. Maple peas continue to hold strong at $25 – $26/bu for old crop and $19-$20/bu for new crop (variety dependent). Supplies are becoming limited across all pea varieties, which may lead to strengthening numbers. However, reports suggest that Russian peas will potentially limit some upside potential. Pea acres are expected to increase in Russia and Ukraine to prewar levels, adding competition in Europe and China. If you have a target price for old or new crop peas, we highly recommend exploring firm offer options, as they seem to have garnered the most interest over the past week.

Chickpea exports remain strong for yet another week, with significant shipments directed primarily to Turkey and the US. Statistics Canada reported a production number of 142,000 metric tons and year-to-date exports total 137,000 metric tons, suggesting Canada should be nearly depleted of supply. As values persist at stagnant and unattractive levels for both old and new crop and growers continue to show reluctancy to sell, it poses the question: where is the supply coming from? Looking ahead, noteworthy rainfall in Southwest Saskatchewan, although not extending as far east into the chickpea growing area as some hoped, sets up part of the region for favorable planting conditions. On the global scale, Mexico is poised to commence its harvest soon, while Australian exports, although below average, remain steady, exerting continued pressure on North American values. Presently, statistical data may be unreliable, but market sentiment suggests an ample supply remaining in the bins, thereby keeping values stable.

The green lentil market continues carrying its bearish sentiment this week as anticipation builds for a larger 2024-25 harvest. Old crop stocks of large and small green lentils have dwindled to what seems to be bin bottoms, which is helping maintain spot values, although most purchasers aren’t quite as strong as they once were. Those with green lentils on hand may still be in luck though, as light trade still takes place at 81-82 cents/lb FOB on large green varieties and 80 cents/lb on smalls. However, new crop markets have seen an overall decrease in value, with large greens trading at 53 cents FOB and small greens now trading at 46 cents FOB, both with an Act of God. These prices still present favorable hedging opportunities and with acres increasing in both Canada and the US, markets are expected to continue softening as seeding progresses. Meanwhile, the red lentil market remains stable with old crop trading at 34 cents/lb FOB farm and new crop indicated at 32-33 cents FOB farm with an Act of God clause. A positive aspect for red lentils is that India is nearing the conclusion of its Rabi harvest, and there appears to be minimal harvest pressure on pricing, which means we could see continued stability.

The barley market has been relatively quiet this week, with producers turning their attention to seeding preparation amid better weather conditions. Current values are hovering around the $5/bu range in the central part of Saskatchewan, with slightly lower bids to the east and stronger bids to the west, ranging from $5.25 to $5.35/bu FOB farm along the western border of Sask. As is normally the case, buyers continue to show stronger numbers in southern Alberta due to the proximity of feedlot alley. Targets have proven effective in soliciting better bids in the eastern part of the province, so it’s worth considering when seeking prices. New crop prices are generally consistent with spot bids, indicating a sideways trend in pricing for the foreseeable future, although unexpected developments could always arise to disrupt this pattern.

The mustard market remains stable this week, with prices holding steady and buyers showing interest in small tonnages. Prices have returned to levels seen in 2021/2022 after the volatility experienced previously. New crop yellow mustard continues to trade at $0.50/lb to $0.52/lb, including an Act of God clause, while old crop prices generally range in the low $0.50s, though some product has moved as high as $0.60/lb delivered plant. Considering the potential for higher values, it may be wise to place an offer on spot yellow mustard—please discuss this option with your merchant. Oriental and brown mustard are trading in the low $0.40/lb range FOB farm for both old and new crop, with limited acres available at $0.42/lb for new crop brown mustard. Bookings have increased recently as prices have stabilized on the new crop front. While there’s still a decent supply of certified mustard available, deliveries are currently underway. Those in need of last-minute mustard seed are advised to contact us as soon as possible so we can try to arrange delivery to your farm.

Soybean prices experienced a downturn this morning as traders await the USDA’s WASDE and export sales reports, both scheduled for release on Thursday morning. Analysts in Brazil are revising their current month soybean export volumes upwards. Local prices are currently ranging from $13.90 to $14.40/bu FOB farm, with variations depending on location. There is anticipation of an increase in new crop Canadian faba acres this coming season, with bids for #2 quality tannin varieties hovering around $10 FOB farm. Old crop #2 faba bids range from $10.00 to $10.50/bu FOB farm, while feed quality values are approximately $9.50 to $10.00/bu FOB farm, varying by location. Dry bean exports to Mexico have contributed to market strength, particularly for pinto and black beans, with black beans leading the way for attractive bids and pintos responding slightly slower. New crop opportunities for great northern beans exist in the low 60¢ range, picked up on farm with an Act of God clause.

Canola futures have benefited from strong crude oil markets and the related demand for biodiesel. Forecasted low canola exports are expected to lead to higher carryout. The relatively high price of Canadian canola has prompted international buyers to seek alternatives from other global suppliers. Uncertainty persists regarding soybean production numbers from South America, compounded by ongoing conflicts in the Middle East. These factors are providing support for both crude oil and vegetable oil markets. Local canola bids are currently in the range of $13.00 to $13.50 FOB farm for April/May shipping.

Oat prices have remained steady, with values holding at around $4.50/bu delivered to select areas. Despite global supplies being considered relatively tight, there haven’t been any significant rallies reflecting the small cushion of available stocks. In the US, oat prices have also remained relatively stable, with domestic supplies slowly entering the market. This stability is more reflective of demand dynamics than supply. Prices are expected to continue moving sideways until there is greater clarity on seeded acreage and how weather patterns unfold heading into the 2024/25 crop year. Early reports suggest that acreage is expected to increase in the UK, EU, Australia, and Canada.

Flax prices have held relatively firm, although the momentum seen in previous weeks has tapered off. Firm offers around $16.00/bu picked up may still be attainable if freight costs align, however, it seems bids are slowly retracting from these levels. While new crop acres are anticipated to be significantly lower in 2024, the trajectory of prices will depend on factors such as consistent imports into China and Europe (or lack of) and what type of yields are experienced. Russian flax exports continue to dominate many markets, but discussions of a potential oilseed tariff from Europe may redirect Russian exports more heavily towards China. This could create opportunities for more Canadian flax to penetrate the European market, though consequently limiting Chinese market opportunities. The timing of these tariffs remains uncertain, so the situation warrants a wait-and-see approach for now.

In the wheat market, forecasts indicate that China is expected to increase its production by 1% compared to last year’s crop. With a 138 million MT crop in 22/23, this would add approximately 1.38 million MT to Chinese stocks. Additionally, corn prices in China are at historically low levels, which will replace feed rations of wheat. Given that China is Canada’s top wheat customer, monitoring Chinese demand will be crucial as their crop progresses through May and June. Locally, to begin the week, CWRS was trading in a range of up to $8.50/bu delivered to Saskatchewan plant, with CPSR at $8.10/bu and CWSWS at $8.35/bu. Durum prices were reported at $10.75/bu delivered to Saskatchewan plant for summer shipping in most cases though grower in Southeast SK may see that value as a FOB farm number. Feed wheat prices remain relatively unchanged, trading in a range of $7.00-7.50/bu FOB farm, depending on type, quality, and location. For those seeking fall wheat pricing, it is advisable to contact your merchant to explore available options in your area.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.