This week, canola markets can be compared to riding an elevator with a 4-year-old child at the controls: up, down, up, down. At the time of writing, the futures posted for May canola are around $782.80/MT with a slight decrease pushing into July. Although there was a bit of a late run yesterday afternoon, Wednesday morning seems to have mixed feelings on where the market should be. With the anticipation of a spring snowfall throughout the prairies, we suspect this might have a bit of impact on the pricing, as late moisture now might be a good kick start to get that canola coming out of the ground this year. If you are sitting with old crop in the bin, it’s highly suggested moving it into the markets that we are seeing. With seeding, and ultimately harvest, not as far away as we think, we suspect the planned acreage of canola this year might start impacting the prices we are seeing today. For sales targets over and above posted values, we suggest placing a firm offer online to catch any potential price spikes in the market!
A glimmer of hope could be seen for the flax market as the Thunder Bay Port has begun welcoming export vessels. Three weeks ago, the port saw its first lake boat take a shipment of canola, and last week docked its first ocean vessel to begin loading Canadian wheat. This is seen in a positive light as past years have shown a spring peak in flax pricing thanks to the additional shipping capacity out of Thunder Bay’s port. Currently, local flax prices sit around $14/bu FOB (delivered in certain locations), with the odd opportunity triggering slightly higher in the right location at $14.50/bu FOB farm. Yellow flax stays quiet, with few trades occurring, and in the range of $22/bu delivered SK. There are mixed opinions on new crop, with some buyers seeing an opportunity as Canadian flax acres are expected to go down, while others view flax markets on an international scale, not only seeing comfortable supplies in Canada, but in Western Europe and Kazakhstan as well, despite a drop in domestic acres. It is expected that Kazakhstan has the supplies to maintain sizeable levels into China, Afghanistan, and Europe well into 2023. With that being said, new crop opportunities for brown sit around $14/bu FOB/delivered throughout SK including an act of God. New crop yellow flax bids are quiet, but our merchants can always touch base with buyers for real time information.
Spot mustard markets maintain historically strong values for nearby movement, while production contracts show continued slippage on the expectation of huge acres for the coming season. Despite a poorer production year, exports have been exceptional with shipments being the highest since May of 2010. The areas in Canada that have the highest density of mustard production are reporting dry conditions, thus far, for the coming seeding season, but recent late season snow may help alleviate some concern. While the reports may seem problematic, it is a marked improvement over last year. It is still far too early to speculate how the year will go and with the massive spread between old and new crop prices, there is sure to be some excitement in the market for the coming marketing year. While buyers have been far more cautious in their purchasing of new crop acres there is still interest in signing up full AOG contracts. Old crop is still in demand as well with buyers looking for all qualities of product. Due to the daily fluctuations in value, it is best to call your merchant for up-to-date bids. If you are thinking of putting mustard in the ground this year, we have availability of certified seed which may still be delivered to your door in time for seeding.
Feed barley values seem to be slightly increasing this week with a decent amount of trade hitting the books. Previously, oat rations helped ease barley bids, but we are once again starting to see values in the $7.50-$8.00/bu range picked up in most areas of Saskatchewan. Growers are encouraged to take some product off the table as this could be a short-term rally before the summer months start approaching and new crop comes into play. As temperatures warm and feedlots cover their summer needs, we might expect to see further downside risk. New crop feed prices remain attractive as well and are still indicated in the $6.30-$6.50/bu picked up range. These production contracts do not include an act of God, but conservative sales are suggested at these historically strong values to hedge yourself against possible value loss. These recommendations do not come lightly especially with Australia and China seemingly on better terms, and still working out trade disputes, and the possible lift on tariffs. If the barley tariff is lifted, we expect new crop prices to decline further.
The chickpea debate persists around the topic of how many acres will be planted in North America. Canada and the U.S. continue to see some backpedaling on the year over year percentage increase originally predicted. This reiteration of last week’s comments should be noted as we are seeing possible inconsistencies throughout our day-to-day operations as well. Only time will tell what the total number of acres is, so for now, we wait. The heavy moisture now impacting southern Saskatchewan likely doesn’t swing last minute decisions on planting as most growers seem fairly set in their plan. Buyers have been more willing to hear new crop offers on chickpeas with targets being hit slightly above advertised bids. New crop indications range from $0.45-$0.48/lb FOB farm with AOG and Sep-Dec movement, with the latter seen trading on firm target in select areas. Bids continue to carry different terms, depending on the buyer and should be reviewed with your merchant prior to any signings. Old crop values range from no bid with a few purchasers up to $0.53/lb FOB farm with May-June movement. Targets are welcome here too, as this could trigger a nice trade.
Lentil markets are mixed this week with some purchasers’ bids slipping, others ramping up, and some content to sit where they are for the time being, just trying to understand just where things are at. Current pricing shows small greens with some spot interest at 50 cents/lb and new crop quoted up to 45 cents/lb. Red lentils show bids at 37 to 37.5 cents/lb delivered on #2 in the spot market, while 35 cents/lb with an act of God, picked up on farm has traded on new crop. Bids on large green lentils are at 56 cents/lb for #2 and growers might still catch a new crop opportunity at 47, possibly 48 cents/lb on a #2OB contract picked up with act of God. The strongest priced lentils type remains the French green which can be sold still at a buck a pound on old crop with new crop up to 65 cents at the yard with AOG, if you have seed, which is not readily attainable. We are still in wait and seed mode for where the new crop acres will come in, but maybe lentils will play the same game they often do: the story is that acres will be much lower and at the last-minute prices pop and the lentils still get their due. As late winter stretching its legs one last time, it should keep things in a standstill for now.
Soybean futures followed the herd in a general commodity sell-off. The market is eagerly watching early U.S. planting progress, which is off to a good start and running ahead of schedule. That said, the market has not lost sight of the poor Argentinian crop and burgeoning Brazilian soybean harvest. Local bids are still holding up quite well at $18.50-$19.00/bu FOB farm, location dependent. The dry bean market is stubbornly static. Inventories are well-heeled and thus far are off setting an expected drop in Latin American production. However, couple lower Latin American production with lower intended acres in CAN/US, and late season market support could be a reality. Current indications lean towards fewer fabas being planted this spring. Feed quality fabas continue to be supported by pet food values. Local bids with export quality #2 faba bids being in the range of $13.50-$14.00/bu FOB farm and feed quality values are near $10.00-$10.50/bu FOB farm, both location dependent.
Wheat has been no exception to the recent commodity sell-off. The board is red with double digit reductions in all three major traded classes. Wheat’s big story is the fate of the Black Sea shipping deal, up for renewal in less than a month. U.S. winter wheat crops continue to receive very poor condition scores. It’s too early to bank on that one yet though, as the HRW crop can recover if significant spring rains develop. Countries neighbouring Ukraine are expressing concern over Ukrainian wheat being dumped within their borders and suppressing local price. The EU will be offering a financial remedy to bordering countries along with restrictions on Ukrainian grain exports. Local spring wheat bids are hovering in the range of $10.50/bu delivered and feed wheat bids are in the range of $9.75 – $10.50/bu FOB farm, location dependent. The durum market continues to look for signs of life as bids remain in the range of $11.75 – $12.00/bu delivered. Western Prairie seeded acres are forecasted to increase for durum wheat for #plant2023.
Canadian exports on peas are lagging behind the 5-year average as there is minimal demand, especially from Chinese markets, with Canada remaining heavily dependent on them. Stormy waters continue on old crop yellow peas with bids sitting around $10.50-$11/bu picked up on farm with new crop $1/bu difference on the negative. So, when you find a price of $13-$14/bu delivered into Southern Alberta on a yellow pea premium program with an AOG, it’s worth an inquiry to your merchant. Green peas are holding value at $13.50-$14/bu FOB depending on farm location. We are seeing new crop values around $12/bu picked up on the farm with an AOG. Maples are still trading the strongest of the three with bids holding down at $17-$17.50/bu delivered in with the latter pricing for Acer variety. New crop maples are ranging around that $15-$15.50/bu delivered in with an AOG. Again, Acer variety is most sought-after. Overall, pea supply is tighter going into this upcoming year. Next week’s StatsCan report should reiterate what has been talked about for a while (the pull back of said acres). Could we see a price perk?
Canaryseed bids keeps bumping its head against the metaphorical price ceiling of $0.40/lb delivered in. Trades continue to trickle in at these levels with purchasers unwilling to budge higher; assumption is the market continues to be covering its need, with the majority of Canadian origin product finding a home in Mexico. Flipping to new crop, values continue to hold at $0.35/lb with an AOG. Looking globally, India’s nigerseed crop is in tight supply, with the next harvest 5-6 months down the road. Does the market see potential for an increase in pricing? This may be something to keep an eye on.
Oat news is stuck on repeat with nothing new of significance to report. Feed markets seem to have the best shipping window, compared to the milling market where shipping is pushing out until fall or later. Common pricing has been in that $3.25-$3.75/bu range picked up on farm for feed quality with good weight. A bonus to selling into the feed market is, normally, dockage is not deductible. There has been the odd trade slightly higher than advertised pricing when put out on a firm target. Outside of the “status quo,” the only new news of significance to report is that late last week a buyer popped up looking for oats out of Southeast Saskatchewan or Southern Manitoba, who would even entertain lighter weight product. If you’ve got oats that may fit the bill, call for details! All in all, growers will have to remain patient as buyers try to eat their way through this surplus.
Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.