Barley appears to be coming back around again over the last week with bids adding a few cents on top of some already historically high feed prices. Old crop feed barley now ranges from $8.50 – $9.00/bu FOB farm depending on freight area and timeframe of delivery. These are very good numbers to empty the bins out in preparation for the 2022 harvest season. Old crop malt still seems rather quiet to date, but if you have something firm, we highly suggest calling in to discuss target options. On new crop malt, interest still exists around $9.00/bu FOB, or a touch better, with an act of God. New crop feed barley seems to be ranging anywhere from $8.00 up to $8.75/bu, all depending on area and timeframe of delivery. We suggest getting a percentage of expected product locked up at these amazing values to hedge against a market correction! Those with targets above market postings should call in to place a firm offer!
Spot pea markets had some pull back in value this week, which could indicate the start of a seasonal decline to close the gap between old and new crop prices. Yellow peas are priced at $16.50 – 17.00/bu, while green peas show bids no higher than $14.00/bu. Maple peas have seldom bids around $16.00/bu this week with seemingly less interest than weeks prior. All spot pea bids are quoted as FOB farm and based on a #2 quality. StatsCan shows that pea acres will decrease roughly 7% year over year, with the majority of the decline coming from green peas. New crop prices have firmed up on both yellow and greens this week with indications at $14.00/bu and $13.50/bu FOB farm with an act of God respectively. New crop maple peas are showing bids around $14.00/bu delivered with very little uptake thus far. It looks as though Canadian new crop yellow bids are priced to sell into China’s fractionation market but are too high for their feed market according to reports. Therefore, we will most likely see Russian peas filling this market if trade barriers are sorted out. It is also doubtful that we will see India come back into the market for peas, so locking in 10bu/acre on your yellow peas seems like a good play at these current values.
The wheat market continues to hold values over $14.65/bu delivered on a #1, 13.5% protein into May and June. New crop values are lower and fluctuate pending location, so call our office to get a price out of your area. On the feed side of things, values remain strong with feed wheat bid at $13.00/bu plus in many areas. Durum markets remain unchanged over the last several weeks despite an Algerian tender, which appears to be largely covered by Mexican crop. With StatsCan projecting durum acres at a 12.5% increase from last year and the USDA estimating a 17% incline, we suspect that durum values stay flat until the trade can gather what is accurate. Call your Rayglen merchant to make sure you are set up to receive our alerts and keep up to date on any rallies that pop up.
Flax prices have slowly crept up from a few weeks ago and are now sitting at $38.00/bu FOB into the summer months. New crop prices are also very strong with $28.00/bu picked up being quoted with an act of God in most areas. There are still unknowns in the overseas market, but some analysts expect that the Black Sea conflict could shift more European flax demand to the Canadian market where there is already limited supply. This is keeping old crop bids supported as we head into new crop, although it is anticipated that prices will eventually start to converge. If there are no real weather threats, expect those prices to shift to the new crop values. There will be heavy competition from Russian flax heading into China, so expect exports on that front to see minimal change.
Chickpeas acres are predicted by StatsCan to see a slight reduction from last year, but not enough to markedly make an impact on values today. Todays old and new crop bids remain unchanged and almost par with each other around 50 cents/lb FOB farm. Mexico has released initial reports of lower-than-expected yields and despite a 20% increase in acre production, may be similar to last year at 159,000MTS. Indian exports are also reported as the lowest they’ve been since 2017/18 crop year for the same time period. Despite that, the Indian production is estimated to be up by 17% from last year at 300,000MTS, made up mostly of large Kabulis to be exported. With all of the above information as leverage, one might assume we see another bump or upwards trend on chickpeas from North America; especially if Russia struggles to export in the coming months. Prices today are sideways and that does not expect to change in the nearby.
The oats market has been pretty tame as of late. Old crop milling bids are not easy to track down right now as a lot of buyers have covered their needs and are no bid for the time being. This is not to say that everything is shut down for opportunities, but we need to do some looking to make sales. If you need to get something marketed yet this crop year, let your merchant know what you have and what you’re looking for so we can keep an eye out for opportunities that may pop up. Bids are showing the mid 8’s as a delivered plant price on a #2 quality milling oat. Fall prices on milling oats are a little north of $6/bu in most areas of the province, but some buyers are full until 2023 at this point. Feed oats are still seeing sales options for anywhere from $6/bu to $7/bu picked up on farm depending on what the downgrading factors are; low bushel weight seems to lean to a heavier discount at this point.
Canola keeps climbing again this week with little deterrence. StatsCan numbers helped the cause as the forecasted acreage number bumps close to 21,000,000 acres, down from last years roughly 22,500,000 acres. Pile on dry conditions in Western SK and AB, and this will adversely affect yield potential. Though it’s still early, it’s definitely something to keep an eye on. Tight stock, coupled with world oil volatility (war in Ukraine & Indonesia export ban) and this commodity keeps pressing upward. May prices sit at $1214.70/MT up from last week $1163.2/MT with July futures running at 1205.10/MT respectively. New crop bids are pushing past $25/bu delivered in some locations, with November futures, as of writing, coming in at $1109.10/MT. There has also been some interest in 2023 new crop at $20/bu picked up on the farm. We have predominately seen this in southeast SK, but this may work in other locations. Call your Rayglen merchant to discuss your options.
StatsCan has released the latest mustard projected acres and they are up considerably this year over last. That’s not a huge surprise with prices being where they are, but this number looks a little high to us. We will see if this has any effect on pricing going forward, but so far things remain unchanged. Prices remain strong this week as spot levels still show $2.00/lb on yellow, up to $2.30/lb on brown and $1.10/lb on oriental mustard in the bin. Aggressive new crop values continue as well with oriental sitting at 90 cents/lb, and 92-95 cents on brown and yellow FOB farm with act of God, including drought. Some seed may still be available, please talk to your merchant as soon as possible.
Canary pricing remains the same as last week, 48 cents FOB farm for old crop and 40 cents FOB farm for new crop with an AOG clause. The first StatsCan report came out suggesting that canary acres could be reduced as much 15% year over year, which will keep pressure on prices. If conditions remain dry, there may be further reduction in seed acres as farmers choose more drought tolerant crops. Old crop prices will likely remain strong as farmers hold out for a little more and buyers try and cover remaining sales. Once the buyers secure enough product to cover their commitments, expect old crop and new crop pricing to converge.
This week, large green lentils seems to be all over the place in terms of pricing, showing the quite the range depending on location and buyer. Some buyers still have little to no interest in purchasing, quoting values around 52 cents, while others are actively hunting and willing to pay between 54-55 cents FOB farm on large green lentils. This is a perfect example of why it’s pertinent to keep in touch with the market. New crop large greens are in light trade but quoted around 42-44 cents/lb pending location. Red lentils show a bit more stability with strong bids quoted in the 41-42 cent range FOB farm on old crop with a few buyers on the hunt. New crop red lentil values are attractive as well quoted at 37 cents/lb FOB Farm or higher on firm offer. StatsCan’s first report suggests a slight increase in acres, which at this point, will not drastically affect the markets based on world stocks. The actual seed acres will likely have more of an effect on prices later in the year. Niche lentils such as French greens and belugas still have buyer interest on both old and new crop, so please let us know if you’re interested in making sales!
The soybean market has found recent strength from an ever-tightening supply of global veg oil. Furthermore, the recent StatsCan report indicates a 7% year over year reduction in canola acres to a total of 20.9 million. Local bids are location dependent and range from $17.50 -$18.25/bu FOB farm. The StatsCan report also substantiated the expected dry bean acre decrease. New crop specialty dry beans bids are between 50¢-60¢/lb delivered. The faba market continues to take its lead from local feed values. New crop faba bids showing up around $15.00/bu FOB farm for a #2. Old crop feed faba bids are near $13/bu FOB farm and those with old crop #2 quality are encouraged to call in so we can track down a firm value in your yard.
Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.