Barley market remains at about par with what we were seeing last week. Although recent values on old crop feed barley have softened from weeks past, the price is still historically strong, and growers shouldn’t disregard the opportunity present. Bids continue to come in around $8.00 – $8.50/bu FOB farm price for summertime movement. We suspect to see this number tally back in the upcoming weeks based on a couple factors; one, there are rumors that feedlots have over purchased on corn and are now trying to sell some of it off, and two, 2022 harvest is not as far away as it seems while the overall demand for purchasing feed barley at a premium seems soft. Shifting gears, old crop malt barley likely still triggers around that $11.00/bu FOB farm should the quality be up to spec. We encourage growers to show us any malt they have on farm and have a target price in mind. On the new crop side of things, not much is being thrown around for bids on either feed or malt, however firm targets and offers still gain interest. New crop malt likely trades around $9.00 – $9.50/bu FOB farm, while new crop feed barley may grab interest at $7.00/bu FOB farm.
Oat markets continue to slide along without much new to talk about. Old crop milling oats range around $8.50/bu, but shipment is pushing into the summer months. A few buyers are still poking around and looking for some off spec stuff as well, so your best bet is to call in with specs, or send us a sample, and let us do the leg work on finding the best value. The demand for new crop oats is still there but is accompanied with some delayed delivery (not off the combine). However, at $6.50/bu, bids pencil in well enough that you may be comfortable to hold product for a while. Don’t get yourself caught wishing you sold at $6.50 trying to hold out for $0.25/bu more. Should the demand come back it could go up by that amount, however, if the demand leaves us, expect a $0.50/bu drop off if not more.
While the US reported an estimated 18% reduction in Kabuli chickpeas acres, there is still a lot of speculation on what will be seeded in Canada for the coming year. The general belief is that even with a potential Canadian increase, there will still be a deficit of product availability. Canadian exports were the highest they have been in Feb since Aug, reaching above the 5-year average with the bulk of the support coming from Lebanon and the US. A disruption in the Russian supply chain should divert demand to Canada, in turn supporting, or even lifting current values. Indian Rabi has wrapped up and Kabuli prices are maintaining a firm and slight upward tone, while the desi crop values move sideways. The Rabi crop was reported as “favourable” and is likely to continue the tone of current for chickpea markets. Values are unchanged for the week. Call for further details, as well as seed if need be.
As we look at the pea market, we see very little changes this week. Old crop yellow bids remain at $17.00 – 17.50/bu picked up, while green peas are still showing little buyer interest at $14.00/bu picked up. The maple pea market has also had demand pull back and bids followed, dropping to $16.00/bu picked up in most cases. Eyes are still on the Black Sea region to see what crops will and won’t be planted this growing season. Canada has pegged yellow pea plantings up and green pea plantings down this coming year, which is expected as green peas haven’t shown a premium to yellows in quite some time. However, maybe a price bump can be expected in the future for green peas with supplies and acres going down. New crop bids for yellow peas are still at $13.00 – 14.00/bu picked up with act of God, the latter is for delayed movement, and in Southeast Sask. New crop green peas are at $13.00/bu delivered with act of God, with a slight chance to get $13.00 FOB in some areas.
New crop mustard bookings have continued strong this past week with the odd lot of old crop mustard coming to the table. We are seeing many bins being cleaned out at these record values, and buyers are happy to pick up any bits and pieces you may have left on farm. Old crop movement is also fairly quick so if you’re looking to get a bin cleaned up, now is the time. New crop is very hot and getting attention from most growers. Yellow and brown continue to be bid at $0.92/lb, while oriental is quoted around $0.86/lb or higher on target, all FOB farm with an act of God. Will trade restrictions affect Russian mustard from entering European markets next year? So many questions and much uncertainty are still seen around that fluid situation. Moving to old crop, yellow is bid around $2.00/lb again with brown mustard staying strong around $2.00-2.10/lb, and oriental trading up to $1.15/lb. These prices are quoted as FOB farm and based on a #1 quality in most locations. We may have some untreated and treated seed options left, just let us know as soon as possible as we can still possibly deliver to your yard.
Canola prices have been supported for the last several months. However, this week there has been some pricing pressure. Canola futures ended lower on Tuesday despite universal gains on other oilseeds. The canola market has been occupied by unusual supply-shift dynamics and with limited progress between Russia and Ukraine, there is still uncertainty in the market. Old crop prices this week range from $25-$25.50/bu picked up, and new crop sitting around $22.50/bu delivered. If the exports picked up again like they were in February, we would see very tight ending stocks.
Although flax acres are expected to have a slight increase from last year, the supply situation remains vulnerable with the low carry-over, especially if we have any weather issues. If the US has a decent flax crop, that will open up more opportunities for Canada to export to other countries in 2022/23. Data from February shows there was more flax imported to the US from Russia than from Canada. While there isn’t much information on the Russian flax crop right now, there are incentives for farmers to plant large acres. China has showed little reaction to the Black Sea situation and continues to be a buyer of Russian flax. Prices in Canada have come off their highs, but are still very strong. Old crop pricing has a possibility up to $37.00/bu for summer months and new crop remains sideways at $26.00/bu picked up with act of God.
The canary market perked up slightly on old crop this week as a couple buyers again showed interest in 48 cents FOB farm on sound quality canaryseed. Stocks are tight, but the canary market is not inelastic like mustard with huge potential upside, as canary users will just do without and use millet, sunflowers, or some other comparable birdseed. New crop prices are still sideways with buyer interest at the 36-cent level with an act of God, but grower interest has been minimal at those values. There seems to be just too many other good options to sway anyone to switch to canary at those levels, and the guys that are growing it so far seem content to see how things unfold.
The wheat market continues to ebb and flow with the everchanging and evolving war in Ukraine and lower than expected USDA winter wheat crop ratings, now pegged 10% worse than what analysts expected. Stress over drought conditions continue to mount in Western Canada as well, adding pressure to spring planting. There is still time for the drought ship to have a course correction in Canada and just sink (fingers crossed), but the start is not overly promising. Today wheat is trading in the red with bids sitting around $13.30/bu delivered in central Sask on a #1 HRSW with attractive new crop indications around $12.25/bu for fall movement. Switching gears to feed wheat, buyer appetite ranges around $11.25-$12/bu picked up on the farm with movement over the next couple months. Durum continues to maintain its ho-hum attitude with bids pegged around $16.75/bu delivered in. Buyers do have some appetite for new crop durum and will entertain an act of God, so call your Rayglen merchant for more details. On a side note, an interesting tidbit of information came out of Tunisia indicating an intention to plant an additional 1.9 million acres of durum.
Lentils markets seem to be unsettled this week as prices have been fluctuating for the past few days. Reds have traded as high as 43 cents/lb delivered and then back down to 41 cents delivered. Buyers seem to be coming to the table when they need coverage and once filled, they pull back their bids. Green lentils are much of the same story with #2 large size bids at 51-55 cents on old crop, while new crop hovers around 41-42. Small greens are indicated at 50-53 cents on old crop and 38-40 cents on new crop. When looking at our exports for the year it is kind of surprising that prices have stayed this strong. Last year, we shipped 1.42 MMT on lentils compared to 872,000 MT this year – that is a 48% drop in exports. The decrease in shipping has now pushed ending stocks out of the low end to the low to mid-range. With end stock numbers improving, Australian crop still available to purchase, and Canadian seeding right around the corner, these factors should keep lentils in check at least until later spring. Next major events to watch will be the actual seed acres and early crop conditions.
Soybean prices are lower following corn futures losses being driven by profit-taking. Rainfall in the US Northern Plains, just ahead of planting, has put additional pressure on the market. Local bids are location dependent and range from $17.75 -$18.50/bu FOB farm. Profitable cropping options are forecast to cut into dry bean planted acres for the upcoming season. Couple that with modest inventories, and dry beans may set a late season rally. New crop specialty dry beans bids are between 50¢-60¢/lb delivered. New crop faba bids showing up around $14.00/bu FOB farm for a #2. Old crop domestic feed market is propping up feed faba bids in that $13/bu FOB farm, and when old crop #2 demand periodically occurs, it is often near $15/bu FOB farm.
Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.