Soybean futures received a noteworthy boost today due to unexpected usage data. Local bids are currently ranging between $18.25 and $18.50 per bushel FOB, depending on the farm’s location. Conversely, dry bean bids have remained stubbornly unchanged. Several analysts are now forecasting a Canadian crop that exceeds previous estimates, accompanied by a decrease in US dry bean production. Moreover, the demand for feed quality fabas remains driven by the values in the pet food sector. Export-quality #2 faba bids at the local level are situated between $13.50-$14.00 per bushel, while feed quality values hover around $10.00-$10.50 per bushel, contingent on the farm’s location.
Canaryseed prices have seen a slight increase this week, likely due to ongoing drought conditions impacting the crop. Bids currently stand at 43 cents/lb FOB farm in most locations. Growers are advised to consider firm targets to try and maximize returns from this market. Analysts anticipate lower stocks for the 2023/24 period compared to previous years, primarily due to flat export numbers and a smaller 2023 crop. While a full yield picture is still not clear, expectations lean towards weaker numbers and tighter supplies as buyers seek coverage for fall shipments. If you have canaryseed in the bin, please reach out to our office to explore available options.
The wheat markets are flat to slightly down this week, with milling bids hovering in the range of $9.50 to $10.00/bu, delivered to the plant. Interestingly, feed prices, in many instances, surpass milling bids and as corn moves into the feedlots, growers with wheat might consider pricing some product sooner than later. Durum markets remain mostly unchanged, quoting prices at $15 to $15.50/bu for various delivery points. Durum prices are likely to remain steady, influenced by Turkey’s export discussions with Italy and the US having already secured a significant portion of its coverage until early next year. Although drought conditions extend not only locally but also to regions like Argentina, durum prices could display volatility until comprehensive harvest reports become available.
Flax market activity has shown some movement this week as buyers seek coverage. Certain buyers have raised their bids to $15 per bushel for prompt shipping. Reduced production expectations in North America and the Black Sea region offer hope that the flax market may be waking up a little. Seeded acreage in Russia and Kazakhstan has declined by approximately 35% from the prior year, and we’re all aware of the acreage drop in North America. The impact of this reduction on overall production remains uncertain. Current crop ratings indicate subpar conditions in Alberta and Saskatchewan, further solidifying the thoughts of a weaker crop. The extent of China’s purchasing activity in the coming year remains a factor to watch, as they’ve made substantial recent purchases, likely anticipating the upcoming reduction. However, the question remains whether these purchases will adequately cover their needs.
Green lentil prices continue to demonstrate strength, with both large and small greens experiencing a slight increase in value to start the week. Our offer system has yielded success for growers, resulting in large greens trading between $0.58 to $0.59 per pound FOB farm, varying by location, and small greens trading at $0.57 per pound FOB farm. Medium green lentils are trading at $0.40 per pound USD FOB farm, with opportunities to deliver at $0.41 per pound USD into Montana. Red lentils have also experienced a positive uptick, with market bids at $0.35 per pound FOB farm. A handful of buyers have shown red bids at $0.36 per pound delivered for Central and SE Sask for those looking to self-haul. Since many growers are combining lentils early, it’s advisable to submit harvest samples for production contracts ASAP to get your foot in the door for shipping. Given the strong pricing and potential upside when using our offer system, we encourage growers considering lentil sales for cashflow to chat with their merchant on pricing and delivery options.
The canola market opened the day at $776.60/MT and is showing green, currently up $11/MT at time of writing to $788/MT. As of August 7th, approximately 98.5% of canola remained standing, making it challenging to pinpoint production figures due to variable conditions throughout the province. Last week’s USDA report pegged Canadian production at 38 bushels per acre and 19.0 million metric tons, although some domestic estimates suggest around 18.0 million metric tons, equivalent to a yield of 36.5 bushels per acre. For those considering the sale of old crop, current bids range from $17.00 to $17.65 per bushel, contingent on futures month, location, and delivery method.
The chickpea market is gradually experiencing price gains, driven by rallies in India and limited North American stocks. Market pricing is expected to proceed cautiously as buyers await more information on this year’s crop quality and yield. Presently, bids for large Kabuli chickpeas range between 50 and 51 cents/lb for product classified as #2 with a maximum 10% 7mm sizing. Higher end bids in the 53 cent/lb range are available, but require a minimum of 40% 9mm sizing, so if that seems to fit your bill, let us know!
Mustard markets have maintained their stability from the previous week, with strong bids persisting and select buyers still showing availability for quick shipment. Early yield reports show variability, as anticipated, with lower yields in southwest Saskatchewan, moderate yields in Montana, and limited reporting from other growing regions. Yellow mustard spot prices stand at 85 to 90 cents/lb, while brown mustard prices hover around 78 cents for deferred movement. Oriental mustard bids remain appealing, but slightly subdued compared to the others, sitting in the mid-70’s/lb. All prices are quoted as FOB farm.
Pea harvest reports are progressively rolling in, validating expectations of varied yields which likely has an impact on some recent stronger pricing. Green pea prices have witnessed an increase, with #2 spec reaching $15 per bushel FOB for locations with reasonable freight costs. Bids for #2 yellow peas remain consistent, around $10 per bushel FOB farm for October-November delivery, but growers may be able to find another $0.25/bu in the right location. Maple peas are similarly showing more activity at present, with potential trades at $16.50/bu on the farm for #2 spec grown from Mosaic and Acer varieties. Product grown from the Blazer variety will warrant slightly lower prices. Bids continue to hinge on location and, most significantly, variety. We strongly recommend reaching out to us to discuss offers for any type of peas during this time of year.
Producers are experiencing an unwelcome dip in barley bids as of late. The influx of corn into Lethbridge has impacted barley, leading to a reduction in price levels. Currently, bids are hovering around $6.25 per bushel along the eastern border of Saskatchewan, improving as you move further west, especially in feedlot alley area. Prompt movement is becoming increasingly challenging for buyers, making it advantageous to contact us promptly if you’re looking to free up bin space and facilitate cashflow. In international barley developments, China has resumed trading with Australia, booking several cargo ships for movement over the next couple of months. In the US, barley crop conditions have improved due to enhanced rainfall and milder temperatures. Projections for yields are a matter of waiting and observing as harvest moves into full swing. The impact of drought on cereals in southwest and central Saskatchewan is still being assessed. Questions have arisen around malt and the possibility of chitting after some late season rains, so it’s recommended to keep an eye on your samples.
Oats continue to be traded in limited volumes, with growers either occupied by harvest or awaiting a more favourable upswing in values. Trading remains within the range of $4 to $4.50/bu for milling quality, pending farm location. Given the minimal expansion of new crop acreage and harvest nearing, the stockpile of old crop oats will prove useful in offsetting supply concerns. The outlook appears relatively stable for the immediate future. Feed oat bids have been relatively scarce due to the lack of feed-grade products from the previous year. Typically, the only downgraded instances were the occasional weight issues. However, if you possess feed-quality oats, please notify us, and we will delve into the details.
Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.