Canaryseed markets appear to be making a push for both old crop and new crop over the last couple weeks. Buyers are looking to lock up any tonnage they can find, and current price indications reflect that drive. Old and new crop have caught up with one another, for the most part, and are both showing bids at $0.42/lb FOB farm for September-October delivery. Getting new crop acres signed up under an act of God today might be a little tricky to find, but we are at the stage where most crops are showing their hands and growers have a good idea of expected yield. Locking in some tonnage at these historically high prices for cashflow with relatively quick movement may just be a smart play. For growers targeting sales over and above current values, we are just a call away to throw up your firm offer.
This week, oat comments are going to sound much the same as previous months. We continue to see unchanged pricing and demand on both the feed and milling side of things. Old crop feed and milling values are stagnant with that market seemingly falling by the wayside. New crop is still indicated around $5.00/bu delivered for movement pushing into 2024. We suspect lots of buyers are at the point of holding back now and waiting to see what this year’s harvest is going to bring to the table. There were acres and tonnage signed up early in the year, so buyers will likely start to work through those contracts before they make a big push to fulfill any potential further demand. We do, however, still see some pockets open up every now and again, so if you have a sell price in mind, using our target system would not be a bad choice to make.
Lentil markets maintain tone for another week as we start to get into harvest country wide. With the unrelenting adverse weather, both Alberta and Saskatchewan have reduced their quality of the lentil crops from 44% to 29% “good” in Alberta, and 50% to 37% “good” in Sk. The US is reporting an average crop thus far, and globally there seems to be no heightened demand for small red lentils, but greens are still a hot topic of conversation. Specifically, medium green lentils are in demand for a 30-60 day window of movement and strong values. Typically, the market responds to harvest pressure with softening values, which seems to ring true for large greens and reds whose bids are stagnant, but there seems to be a gap of opportunity right now for medium greens. Call for details.
Chickpeas have not been missed when it comes to a decline in quality of the planted crop. Over the last 2 weeks ratings have gone from 51% “good to excellent” down to 26% according to Sask. Ag. Alberta has not seen the same decline with their rating being 44% “good to excellent,” down 10% from previous weeks. All things considered, there is no argument that chickpea supplies for the coming year will be down. Globally, there is a buzz that with increased acres in North America, values should decline. Given the adversities with weather, potential yield, and quality issues, that increase in acres may not have the desired effect to export. In addition, growers are still reluctant to sell in this market, which also creates a bit of a bull. Chickpea harvest is still a bit of a wait before we are in full swing and until then, bids maintain value for another week.
This year’s flax crop in Sask has dropped to 23% good to excellent, well below 60%, the 10-year average -comparatively, near par with 2021’s year of the drought. The difference this year vs 2021’s record high prices is that a decent chunk of last year’s crop remains in the bin. So, expect supplies to be sub last year’s levels. But it’s not all sunshine and rainbows to the land of high prices – this past June, Russia and Kazakhstan were the top two exporters of flax to China, with Canada sliding in at #3 as Russia has sown up almost three quarters of the need. Now this may change a bit if flax prices stay subdued here in Canada and we become a comparable pull for China. Maybe we see a bit of product slide to our neighbours south of the 49th as N.D. flax crop has dropped nearly 20% off their 10-year average of good/excellent. Prices haven’t popped up much at all with bids hanging around $14-$15/bu FOB depending on farm location, but there looks to be a bit of optimism out there.
The mustard market has started to show some life of late. Crop conditions have not gotten a whole lot better around Western Canada, with much of the mustard setting seed, and late rainstorms are generally hurting this crop more than helping. Spot prices on yellow remain around 85-90 cents picked up on farm, but firm offers posted a little over that level may get some attention. Brown mustard prices have moved up to around 75 cents/lb and in the same vein as yellow, firm targets showing a little premium will get a look for sure. Oriental is still the quietest of the group, but bids in the low to mid 70 cent/lb picked up range have been spotted. It sounds like we are getting awfully close to harvest in most mustard growing regions and it has already begun for some in those areas. We will have a much better grasp on crop yield in nearby weeks as harvest progresses quickly in dry years.
Barley continues to trade quietly and at very good prices still, mainly to feed markets. Generally, the market is awaiting upcoming yield reports as it is certainly no secret that some barley out there doesn’t look good, and reports of baled crops continue to roll in. Of course, we have come across pockets of good-looking crops as well, so it will be interesting to see what this market does near term. Again, as we know, the seeded acres are up, but it is hard to determine if that increase is going to offset less-than-ideal yields and overall production numbers. The crop is now turning fast with this heat, and it won’t be long until we start seeing some harvest yields. Both new and old crop feed are still triggering anywhere around $7.00-$7.50/bu FOB farm depending on freight and timeframe of delivery. The closer to Alberta, the better the bid.
Pea harvest is underway in Canada and the US! Combines are out and about, but it’s a tale of very different stories on the busheling side due to moisture or the lack thereof, unfortunately. Yellow pea pricing is hanging around $9.75-$10/bu picked up on the farm for a #2 with pretty timely movement, as buyers are eager to get a start on 2023 production. We’ll have to wait a bit for green and maple harvest to hit full swing, but the odd report of harvested crop is coming through. Bids for new and old crop have, for the most part, converged with greens hovering around $13.50-$14/bu picked up on farm, and maples range anywhere from $15-$17.50/bu picked up on farm. Bids are dependent on location and most importantly, variety.
Canola is having a tough week as it has lost just over $50/MT in the last 5 days. Prices are now back under $17.50 a bushel for August or September delivery. Canola purchasers, following the mid-July rally, have got enough coverage to satisfy the market for the near future. Canola could remain quiet until some yield reports become available to the market. Canola seems to be also feeling some outside pressure from the other major grain markets such as soybeans, wheat, and corn, as all three have seen more downward pressure than upswings lately.
Wheat markets have seen a downtrend over the last week despite an effort to rally late on Aug 1 and early this morning. Thus far, futures have not fallen below yesterday’s close, so the market seems to be somewhat stable. Feed markets sit in the $10.00 to $10.50/bu range, picked up, for Aug-Sept movement. The interesting cereal market this week is new crop durum, where bids have reached $15.00/bu FOB farm with movement quoted as August-September. After driving around Saskatchewan, Alberta, and northern Montana, we noticed that the cereals seemed to be hit the hardest by the drought. Cereals in northern Montana for the most part looked OK, but southern Saskatchewan and Alberta were more poor than good. The durum market could be a market to keep an eye on over the next couple of weeks.
Soybean production looks to be quite variable throughout the prairies as moisture continues to be the headliner. Irrigated beans will perform well, but Manitoba yields are expected to decrease as dry weather persists. Western Canadian yield estimates have been trimmed by some analysts, placing yields around 34 BPA, lower than the 5-year average. With small carryover from last year, analysts are expecting a smaller export program for Canadian product. The US dry bean crops are holding steady, with the overall crop rating at 51.5% good to excellent. Local bids for soybeans sit around $18.50-19.00/bu location dependent, with local bids for faba beans hovering around $13.50-14.00/bu in SK. Feed fabas continue to see indicated values around $10.00-10.50/bu, location dependent, but firm bids are scarce.
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