Peas have maintained their momentum this week with limited changes among the key players in yellow and green markets. Yellow peas are still trading at $10.00 per bushel FOB farm, with some relatively quick shipment linked to the contract. On the other side of the coin, #2 green peas continue to capture buyers’ attention as well, holding steady at around $15.00 per bushel FOB farm. The observed price disparity between yellow and green peas is likely influenced by supply and demand dynamics. Despite an increase in green pea acres, lower than expected yields are a factor that appears to be mirrored in pricing trends. Interestingly, the maple pea market has experienced sporadic surges this week, with prices reaching approximately $18.00 per bushel FOB farm, accompanied by favourable delivery windows. Currently, buyers exhibit a degree of flexibility in terms of variety, and growers are encouraged to show all types.
Barley’s recent trajectory mirrors the pattern of past weeks, as buyers further adjust their bids in response to a consistent influx of corn into feedlot alley. Currently, bids in the feed market are averaging around $6.30/bu FOB farm in SK, while delivered to Lethbridge values are notably higher at approximately $7.60/bu. Feeders have secured their immediate requirements, leading to a shift in movement timeline, now quoted as September/October for the most part. Despite the decline in bids, occasional chances to sell at slightly elevated prices have arisen. Given these recent fluctuations, we suggest having a discussion with your merchant regarding feed sales. The last Sask Crop Conditions report dated August 14, suggested only 12% of the province’s barley had been combined. With more barley being harvested since then, a diverse array of yield reports from growers has surfaced. This range is inherently variable, as anticipated due to varying crop conditions across growing regions. Yield reports span from 13 to 90 bushels per acre with an expected varying degree of quality. Lastly, there has been interest in malt barley delivered to Manitoba. If this potential opportunity captures your attention, don’t hesitate to contact your merchant for more details and we will work on putting a bid together.
The chickpea market maintains a cautious tone this week despite the strength seen last week, with both buyers and sellers in a holding pattern as they seek further clarity on this year’s yield and quality. Persistent rains across various areas of Saskatchewan and Alberta have raised concerns about their potential impact on crop quality. The pricing for both old and new crop #2 large kabulis has converged, settling at approximately $0.50-$0.51/lb FOB farm for September/October movement, translating to an average of about $0.37/lb FOB farm USD for our neighbours to the south. Conversely, the smaller kabuli sizes have experienced less demand, resulting in a reduction of about $0.02/lb due to higher 7mm counts. To optimize market positioning, it is advisable to assess chickpeas for sizing prior to marketing, ensuring a better understanding of the product, and available options.
The oat market continues to show modest resurgence, buoyed by buyer interest for late fall shipping, reaching up to $5/bu FOB farm for #2 milling quality in select locations. Prompt movement options might command slightly lower figures, yet numerous valuations surpass $4/bu with on-farm pickup. Those equipped with ample storage and a willingness to retain stock through the summer of 2024 could witness bids inching closer to the $6/bu threshold for that period, indicating current market optimism. While certain feedstock prices have receded, due to US corn making its way to feedlots, respectable bids exceeding $4/bu for feed quality oats endure across many areas.
It has been a month since Russia exited the Black Sea grain deal, signaling the onset of the decline in Chicago wheat futures values. The agreement ensures safe passage for Ukraine’s exports from the Black Sea, even amid Russian attacks on Ukrainian ports; however, this isn’t the sole driver of the decline. Pressure from the ongoing harvest and competitive global pricing are significant factors. As prices remain subdued and there are no indications of higher market bids, many growers have temporarily halted sales. A prevailing “wait and see” attitude pervades the wheat market. Meanwhile, the durum market remains stable for another week, with global supply meeting demand thus far. The market remains uncertain due to reported production and yield issues in North America. While there’s a sense that durum could potentially be a standout crop this year, gains have been modest to date.
The canola market presents promising price opportunities as it approaches the harvest season. The latest crop outlook from AAFC has captured attention with its implications for the ending stocks of the 22/23 canola crop, leading to an adjustment that expands the carry-over for 22/23 and subsequently impacts the supply and demand dynamics for the 23/24 canola market. Despite this development, most industry experts are maintaining a measured perspective and shifting their attention to the upcoming Stats Can report scheduled for early September. Currently, local bids vary from $17.40 to $17.70 per bushel, dependent on the farm’s location.
Soybean futures experienced a boost following a notable announcement by the USDA regarding a substantial soymeal sale, marking a reversal from earlier in the day when pressure stemmed from positive reports on crop development and progress. Local bids currently range from $18.50 to $18.75 per bushel FOB farm, contingent on location. In the realm of dry beans, an upswing in Mexican demand, and a decrease in production provide anticipated late-season support, though this is presently counterbalanced by excess carryover supplies from the previous crop. Canadian faba bean volumes are projected to decline compared to the previous year, while feed-quality faba beans continue to find support through their value in pet food markets. Local bids reflect this dynamic, with export-quality #2 faba bids spanning between $13.50 and $14.00 per bushel FOB farm, and feed-quality values hovering around $10.00 to $10.50 per bushel FOB farm, dependent on location.
The flax market has once again displayed encouraging trends this week. Bids are currently situated around the $15 per bushel mark for shipments that are reasonably prompt. It is advisable to consider slightly elevating your offers, as this could potentially lead to trades, contingent upon your specific location. Exploring the range of $15.25 to $15.50 FOB is likely a feasible range. Familiarity with the acreage situation in Canada and the challenges in the Black Sea region is widespread. Presently, our focus shifts to the forthcoming yield reports, which will provide valuable insights into our standing. An additional point of interest emerges this week as inquiries regarding yellow flax have surfaced, with bids hovering around the $20-$22 per bushel mark. If you have yellow flax on farm, please don’t hesitate to call to discuss a marketing strategy with your merchant.
Mustard yields have exhibited variability, as indicated by early harvest reports. Analysts are currently projecting yields to be 20% lower than the 5-year average. However, the carry-over from the previous year is poised to mitigate some of the effects of these reduced yields, especially when coupled with an increase in seeded acres. Consequently, there is no anticipation of a tight supply situation. Price fluctuations are contingent upon market movement and demand dynamics. As of this week, yellow mustard is maintaining stability at approximately 86 cents per pound FOB farm, while brown mustard is hovering around 78 cents per pound FOB. Oriental mustard prices range between 72 and 74 cents per pound, also including on-farm pickup. Notably, the USDA has reported an augmentation in US plantings that surpasses their earlier June estimate. While supplies are anticipated to be comfortable in the forthcoming year, the extent of grower bullishness and ultimately willingness to sell remains uncertain.
The lentil market presents a varied landscape this week. Initially, small green lentils exhibited strength with a few 60 cent FOB farm offers being traded. However, prices appear to be settling back down with some purchasers now indicating values are the 58-cent mark. On the other hand, large green lentils are being traded within the range of 60 to 61 cents FOB farm. Red lentils, in contrast, are observed to be trading in the range of 36 to 37 cents per pound, FOB farm. Growers’ reports indicate a significant disparity in lentil yields; one neighbour boasting a yield of 20 bushels per acre, while another barely managing 5 bushels per acre. Overall final production numbers are eagerly awaited. Across all lentil markets, an inclination towards early coverage is evident, yet a potential market retreat might follow once these demands are fulfilled. A buyer noted that this shift has already been witnessed in the small green lentil market this morning, with what was sellable yesterday no longer holding ground today. Among lentil markets, medium greens garner considerable attention from both buyers and sellers, notably with US medium greens trading at 40-41 cents FOB farm USD. The current state of these markets is characterized by volatility, wherein any news might swiftly prompt either a decline or an upswing.
The canaryseed market is ablaze as prices surge past mid-30 cent levels from two months back. Bids have steadily risen, with current active bids resting at $0.45/lb for on-farm pickup and immediate movement. The market displays activity, driven by signals of the lowest canary production domestically since 2001/02. Potential drivers including the US millet crop facing weather-related challenges, particularly in its key growth area, Colorado. Additionally, India’s Niger seed crop anticipates a decrease of over 30% compared to last year’s already diminished output, significantly below the 10-year average. With the seasonal peak yet to arrive and crops predominantly still in the field, the unfolding price dynamics and upper limits remain something to observe.
Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.