The barley market seems to be taking a quick breather and attempting to find itself. That $8.00/bu FOB farm pricing is still bouncing around but expect the delivery to be pushed out a bit. With recent showers throughout the Prairies, one would expect that we might see more feed grains then initially anticipated, so don’t expect a big run up in price anytime soon. Malt remains to be somewhat quiet to date, but it is suspected that is due to risk vs reward on comparing feed market to the malt market. China recently released information that they will be allowing imports from Kazakhstan which could have a bit of an impact on the feed market. If you’re on the fence if you should sell or not, locking in a percentage of the farm is not a bad idea. Would you rather sell in the middle, at a couple cents below the highest trade, or hold out and sell at the bottom, for a potential difference of dollars.
The wheat market remains to be an interesting one this week, as the spread from milling to feed is not much difference. Depending on location for feed wheat, you are looking anywhere from $10.00 – $10.50/bu FOB farm. Good quality milling wheat with high protein sits around $11.00 – $11.10. Durum values seem to be up in the air with buyers posting $20.00/bu, but with recent rains, it’s expected that what’s left standing in fields will be pushed down a grade or two. Posting a firm offer for any durum above posted values should gain some interest and locking up a certain percentage is not a bad idea. Even if you only do a couple loads you can brag that you sold $20 dollar durum. Soft white wheat seems to be making a splash right now as well, posting an $11.25/bu delivered bid.
Flax prices have been sideways as harvest is underway. Prices are holding in the $23.00-$24.00/bu range with the possibility of higher for a longer movement. Russian flax production is pegged to be steady as increased acres offsets a lower yield. In the US, lower yields will also offset the increased acres and the overall change in supplies compared to last year is expected to be small. Still, the biggest unknown, is what the Chinese market will do. Since these flax prices are historically high, especially right before harvest, it’s hard to gauge how much upside there could be in pricing going forward before some demand starts to back off. For now, the momentum on prices remains strong.
The pea market continues to stay strong this past week with great bids showing on all types of peas. Spot bids are up to $16.00 – $16.50/bu FOB farm on both yellow and green peas for standard #2 quality. If you have a little bit of bleaching in your greens, there are options at minimal discounts that can be sorted out. If you are a maple pea grower, we have buyers that are triggering offers at $16.00/bu picked up on farm for fall movement, but buyers do need to know what variety they are buying, as different ones are preferred for different markets. For those that are growing one of the lesser-known pea types such as a Dun pea, we have current bids as high as $16.00/bu delivered to plant. These pea prices seem to be mainly driven by the US market and not the usual overseas buyers. Therefore, it is yet to be seen how deep this market is and how long this will be sustained but for the time being market prices are great, so act accordingly.
Oats continue to trade sideways this week as we haven’t seen much variance in bids. That being said, pricing remains strong around that $5.50/bu range delivered in. Buyers are looking for product so if you have a target price in mind, let your Rayglen merchant know. With production on the lighter side this year, there have been musings of possibly importing from Australia or Europe to help absorb some the shortfall expected. Time will tell on whether this comes to fruition as oat harvest has just started in some locations. Though this rain is welcome, it has a start and stop type of dance going on with the combines, let’s just hope it doesn’t mess with quality too much more, as it’s already been a tough year.
The canary seed harvest is just beginning in a few areas, with many combines being held up by rain. Bids have been holding quite strong in this market, and consistently moving upwards each week it seems. We can expect the canary seed crop will be reduced this year as drought has affected it heavily. Over this past week, canary seed pricing has been posted at 50 cents/lb FOB farm. If you have a certain price in mind, we suggest calling your Rayglen merchant and putting up a firm offer.
Lentils continue to climb this week. The biggest question being asked is whether this market is at the top, or can they climb a little bit higher? Whether they go higher or not is anyone’s guess. It has been a long time since lentils have remained at this level and we must keep in mind that most places that are buying lentils are not rich countries. Therefore, if the prices get too high, they will find a replacement. Right now, Canada is in a situation where we are one of the few countries that has product available to market. In a couple months, Australia’s lentils will come online, and reports suggest that they have a decent crop that will be harvested. If they get the expected quantity and good quality, this should put pressure on the red market for later in the marketing year. The other factor that would cause prices to drop is if these markets are running due to short covering. Once these shorts are covered, buyers will back away from the table. Looking at today’s pricing, we are seeing reds at 55 cents, large green lentils at 65 cents, and small green lentils are 62 cents, all FOB farm. In today’s market, it is best to call in to get up to date pricing as they are changing daily.
Mustard is starting to come off in areas of Alberta and Saskatchewan. Recent rains and cool weather have slowed progress. Growers that have started are reporting below average yields, which is what we expected. Things are very tough in many areas. Will prices start to pick up again? This is yet to be seen as the market has been completely flat this week. Buyers are still looking for product and quick movement is still available. Yellow mustard is priced at 60 cents, brown mustard at 50 cents and oriental indicated at 40 cents, all picked up for a #1 quality. Call your merchant with a target for any timeline and price, and maybe a trade for a little better can be done.
The canola market was up and down through the week but steady from last week at $914.80 Nov. and $898.40 Jan 22’. Markets are watching soybeans very closely this week as soy prices start to slide. Canola will require a huge premium to soy to keep the acres up for the coming year. The bean production is massive and can easily replace Canola where it is lacking, but to lose Canola acres can mean a huge disruption in the market for the coming years. Right now, it is too soon to see a definite guideline, but the market is paying close attention.
After staying incredibly quiet for 2-3 years, the chickpea market has taken off in a big way over the past week. Instead of the usual 1-2 cent changes we would normally see in this market, we’ve been looking at 5-10 cent intervals. This type of extreme pricing movement is not something we see often and has caught the attention of chickpea growers all over. Currently, bids are around 60 cents/lb FOB farm for #2 large kabuli chickpeas. Many bids are based on max 10% 7 mm sizing with discounts to apply over the 10%. We are encouraging offers for different qualities and price points to show to our buyers as they are eager to see what it takes to make purchases.
The soybean market showed big gains yesterday based on degrading crop condition scores. Followed today by profit taking and a marginal dip until propped back up by rumors of Chinese purchases, a refocus on crop condition scores and river logistics issues in South America. Local bids remain well supported near $15.50/bu delivered. Buyers are open to any reasonable offer as posted bids remain scarce. North American dry bean production will be markedly down year over year. Around the globe, Mexican bean production will be lower and Argentinian production is expected to be up. North American bids being led firmer by US values founded on the production volume decline. UK faba bean crop is expected to yield well. That said, local demand is likely to consume production and limit participation in export markets. Very few new crop acres have been harvested yet with bids hovering around $8.50/bu fob farm location dependent.
Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.