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Rayglen Market Comments – August 29, 2018

The dry bean market is holding strong as weather concerns in both Western Canada and Ontario have expectations leaning towards a much smaller crop than last year, potentially as much as 22%. While seeded acres in the US are in line with average years, there have been some concerns of lower yields and reduced quality, so we will need to keep an eye on their harvest to get a better understanding of what pricing may do. Faba beans in Saskatchewan have the potential to trade at above $7.50 picked up in the yard for any product meeting a #2 quality for the export market. Soybean bids continue to be around the $10.50/bu FOB farm range depending on location. Give us a call for any bean prices out of your area.

Canary prices remain sideways this week at 22 cents/lb delivered to plant. There have not been any yield estimate reports as of Aug 20, but there is likely to be some reduced yields after some extreme heat last month. Argentina canary exports are running behind last year’s pace, which has allowed some movement of Canadian exports into Brazil. The US also hasn’t reported any yield indications, but again, there is a good chance yields will be lower than average.  The US canary crop is grown mainly in Colorado, Nebraska and South Dakota. Prices have not yet responded to the lower yield estimates, once harvest begins there could be potential for an upside swing.

Green lentil bids have been slipping over the last week as harvest is progressing. Large greens are trading at 18 cents picked up on a #2 quality and #1 small greens are trading at 18 cents delivered. Overseas markets were also seeing green lentil prices decline; with Turkey’s currency crisis adding a bit of stress to the current lentil market. On the red lentil side, there seems to be a bit of stability in the market. There has been a slight bump and we have seen bids at 16 cents delivered on a #2 quality. Looking to the US market, lentils are quiet; #1 US richleas are trading at 14 cents US. As harvest is moving along, sending in your samples for grading is key as higher quality green lentils are getting a bit of interest.

Flax has been very quiet coming out of the gates this harvest season. Prices have been soft, trading between $12.00 to $12.50 depending on quality.  Some analysts are saying to be patient, as they think prices will likely rebound early in 2019.  This is partially due to the smaller 2018 crop, but there are other factors that are hurting the Canadian flax market at the present. It looks like the Russian and Kazakhstan brown flax market is going to be large yet again, which will likely take away from demand in Canada as their brown flax usually goes into Europe and China as well. As of last week, it is reported that 16% of all crops have been harvested and 22% have been swathed or ready to straight cut.

Chickpea harvest is about 10-15% complete in Canada and thus far we are hearing mixed reviews depending on the sourcing area. Some areas in SE Sask are reporting slightly above average green count and average yields, while SE Alberta is showing smaller sizes, with yields ranging from below average to average. The buy side of the market has not flinched at these reports in lieu of increased acres. In fact, we are continuing to see markets soften weekly. We are still getting calls about what type of desiccant can be used and for the best marketability of your crop it is best to stay away from glyphosate. Please call the office if you have any further questions on this recommendation. Bids for #2 Orion/Leaders at $0.23/lb FOB for 9/10mm and $0.19-0.15/lb for smaller sizes and varieties. Feed values are somewhere between $0.10-$0.11/lb FOB. All bids are location dependant.

Mustard this week remains steady. With harvest still moving along we are hearing yields are below average due to lack of moisture and extreme temperatures throughout the growing season.  Left Field reports that their yield forecast of 830lb/acre for 2018 is still based on a 10% drop from the 5-year average, which would mean a 184,000MT crop, 52% larger than in 2017. With that being said – prices are still holding with brown at 33c/lb, yellow at 35c/lb, oriental forge variety at 28c/lb, and cutlass variety at 27c/lb FOB farm all on a #1 quality. Also remember if you have production contract, make sure your sending your pre-ship sample off to buyers so they can get them graded.

Wheat (milling) bids have softened due to a rising Canadian dollar and dropping US futures prices. They now hover in the range of $6.80 delivered. An estimated 77% of the US spring wheat crop is in the bin according to the USDA. Easing concerns over Black Sea wheat supplies have also contributed to a softening market. Much of the Canadian Prairie wheat crop remains to be harvested. Early reports indicate lower yields versus last year but a return to a normal protein distribution and grades. Feed wheat bids have been strong recently with $5.80-$6.00 FOB farm being attainable. Durum prices continue to lag with ample North American stocks and lack luster demand, with some areas trading around $6.50/bu.

Breaking news this morning in the pea markets. India has lifted the import ban, but Canadian peas will still face the 50% tariff.  At this point the news is fairly fresh so we will wait to see how this affects the farm gate price. If India is showing interest in buying, we expect some pricing rebound. Other rumors are that this is a short-lived dream and that the courts ordered the bans to be removed. If this is the case, it is likely the Indian government will reinstate the bans on different grounds. Thus far, we’ve seen small spikes in local prices with some buyers moving to $6.75/bu delivered on yellows. If you are trying to get a little more for yellow peas, send us your sample and we get the dry matter protein checked for you to go into a premium market. Buyers are showing interest in green peas around the $8.00 FOB farm mark this afternoon.  As we wait for the dust to settle on India news this might be a great time to be a little bullish on peas and throw out pricing targets.

The canola market continues its sideways run of late, with not much news to report. The November market was at approx. $490/MT today, at the low end of where canola prices have been for the past few months, but still range bound. Common basis levels put canola prices about $10.60/bu delivered to the plant and no big premium in the market for further out movement at this time.  On Friday we will see StatsCan’s first 2018 crop production report of the harvest season, so we wait to see what effect that might have on the market. If this report comes out showing lighter yields, we will see some bullish reaction in the market quite quickly.

Feed barley markets remain stable this week with bids coming across our desks at $4.20 for quick movement and up to $4.75 FOB farm for pushed out winter delivery. Pricing remains strong when compared to a 5-year average and those who have feed barley in the bin, should consider hedging some product at these values. On the other side of the barley world, is the 2-row malt market, which we recently obtained bids for.  For producers willing to sit on their barley, we have a bid of $5.25/bu FOB farm for Oct-July 2019 delivery. If your needing your product out a little sooner, we have limited tonnage available at $5.00/bu FOB farm Oct- Jan 2019. Both programs are variety specific – Copeland or Metcalfe. Call your merchant for further details!

Oats prices remain stable over the past couple of weeks. Early reports from the east side of the province and into Manitoba are showing average yields and decent quality. Some low bushel weights are also being reported due to lack of moisture. Prices range from $2.50 to $2.80 per bushel FOB the farm on the eastern side of Saskatchewan for later movement and pretty decent values. The west side is challenging for good FOB bids. Feed oat prices have ranged from $2.00 to $2.20 per bushel FOB the farm. Call your Rayglen merchant if you are looking to move some product before December.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.