Flax prices remain untouched this week and vary depending on who has an interest. Average bids are sitting around $14.50/bu picked up and with the latest reports on crop quality, some analysts believe 2023/24 supply will end up lower than the previous year. If export demand increases then, in time, we could see Canadian flax prices gain strength. Inventories sitting in China are higher than normal for this time of year, which likely puts a pause on any major near-term price rally. Bids overseas have seen some increase, which could mean that the tighter flax supplies are more than just a Canada/US issue. While the market may have to adjust, it’s just a matter of how long that will take and what value product needs to be priced at to obtain coverage.
Wheat markets still appear to be trying to find themselves this week. We suspect it will continue to ring the same for the next few weeks as harvest moves into full bore, and we see what is really produced this year. Old crop milling continues to float around the $9.50 – $10.00/bu mark, delivered to various locations across SK. On the feed side of things, depending on area, we are still seeing product trigger at $10.00/bu FOB farm. The feed number is truly one to consider if you have carryover or this year’s harvest in the bin as corn is starting to hit feed lot alley and we anticipate feed markets will continue to soften. Durum appears to be on a little bit of a run, now being quoted as high as $15.50/bu delivered to various locations. That said, we also are faced with the continued struggle of determining what is going to be produced this year and suspect this will play a major part in finding the right sales window for durum. For anything over and above quoted values, we highly suggest calling in and placing a target, as we never know when a pocket of demand opens up that needs to be filled – especially at this time of the year.
Canola futures have taken a hit today (Wednesday, August 9, 2023), with November down $15/MT and January off $14.20/MT; this sets futures values at $775.90/MT and $780.80/MT, respectively. Despite slightly stronger soybean and soyoil futures, Canadian markets were closed on Monday when they took some heavy losses. Now, the assumption is that canola is playing, “catchup,” aligning itself more accurately with the soy complex after the holiday. Overall, there is still concern in the market over crop conditions and ultimately, potential yield outcome as drought conditions took effect on many areas. Cash bids currently sit in the range of $17.00-$17.40/bu delivered, pending plant location and local basis level.
Lentil harvest is well underway for many growers in southern SK & AB, and northern Montana, with reports of most types being harvested in some aspect. The green lentil market continues to show strength with small greens trading at $0.55/lb FOB farm, large greens sitting around $0.58/lb FOB farm, and medium greens hovering around $USD 0.38-0.40/lb FOB farm. With strong buyer demand, touch base with your merchant as shipping periods vary and we can try to find a bid that fits your farm’s fall cash flow needs. Turning to reds, the market is relatively flat in comparison to recent weeks despite a few gaps in price from buyer to buyer. Depending on area, reds are trading between $0.33-0.35/lb FOB farm, shipping period dependent. Lastly, french green lentils are attracting interest around $0.65/lb in SK.
Barley markets have been showing some weakness this week as the bearish headlines continue to roll in. First, China has scrapped their tariffs on Australian barley, improving the two country’s trade relations and opening the door for Australia to begin working its way back to being China’s biggest barley exporter. Seen as welcome news for Australian growers, this decision will impact local growers as the Canadian share of barley into China will be significantly reduced. Second, U.S. corn continues to move into Canadian feedlots, and with favourable corn growing conditions in the near future, the size of the U.S. corn crop looks to be big. As of July 27, Canada had purchased well over 500,000 tonnes of new crop corn, which is a national record for this point in the year. Pair these headlines together, and we have seen barley get pushed below $7.00/bu for several areas. While few opportunities above $7.00/bu are to be found, reach out to your merchant to go over the options. As per usual, the closer to Alberta, the stronger the bid.
The mustard market is simply very strong this week. Crop conditions are not the greatest in many mustard areas, and troubles in the world seem to be keeping prices strong. Spot prices on yellow are still around 85-90 cents picked up on farm, but firm offers posted a little over that level may get a look from a buyer. Brown mustard prices are very solid, sitting around 78 cents/lb, if you are willing to wait for Oct/Nov type movement. Oriental is still the lowest, but bids remain attractive in the mid 70 cent/lb range picked up in your yard. We are getting very close to hearing some harvest yields, so please let us know when you start. Call your merchant if you need a sample address for your production contracts.
Canaryseed pushes into the week showing signs of life and offering some great sell values. Old and new crop have now converged with product indicated and trading around $0.44/lb delivered plant to various locations, or $0.42-$0.43/lb FOB farm pending farm location. Speculation suggests buyers are trying to secure tonnage and are even offering some prompt movement options. If you are targeting values above the current market, try posting a firm offer for the buyers to work on. We are left somewhat in the dark when it comes to estimating this year’s production numbers, and maybe current pricing reflects this indecision. However, for some quick movement and cashflow, these values remain great options to make sales into.
Soybean futures got a little boost today driven by short covering. The upside will be muted by favourable weather reports for the US Midwest this week. Local bids are in the range of $18.50-$18.75/bu FOB farm location dependent. Dry bean bids are stubbornly unchanged. Some analysts are predicting a larger than anticipated Canadian crop and a dip in US dry bean production. Feed quality fabas continue to be supported by pet food values. Local bids with export quality #2 faba bids being in the range of $13.50-$14.00/bu FOB farm and feed quality values are near $10.00-$10.50/bu FOB farm location dependent.
Oat crop reports vary widely from geography to geography, and sometimes within the same field. Much of this is attributed to patchy rains and periods of intense heat occurring during the growing season. Planted acres were reduced this spring, coupled with challenging growing conditions, and production forecasts will see a drop year over year. That said, the market is still choking through a huge carryover from the previous year. The 2-year combined production number might get us back and close to a, “normal,” carryout number. Local bids are in the range of $4.00 to $4.50/bu FOB farm location and shipping timeframe dependent.
Both Alberta and Saskatchewan are reporting a slight decline in yields and quality rating this week as harvest numbers start to roll in. In Alberta, this is only slight, but the same cannot be said for Saskatchewan. Peas went from 50% “good” two weeks ago, to 32% “good” now. These numbers are more important for green peas as their acres were down from last year, so it is affecting a smaller pool of supply. Old and new crop pea prices have pretty much come to par with each other. Bids for #2 yellow peas are around $10/bu FOB farm with Oct-Nov movement and #2 greens are trading around $14.50/bu CAD or $10/bu USD with possible higher values on target. Maple peas are a quiet market right now, with running around $15.50/bu on the farm for #2 Mosaic and Acer and $14.50/bu for #2 Blazer variety. Bids are dependent on location and most importantly, variety.
Chickpea markets are still for another week. So far, there now have been many reports of issues with the chickpea crops, but it is still a bit early for speculation. There is no question there are more acres than last year, but quality and quantity of yield remain to be seen. What can be said is that when harvest does come off, and we take into consideration what is still in the bins, there will be more than enough to fulfill the market demands as they are today. Again, this could change, but right now values are steady as demand remains stale. Old and new crop bids come together and are worth around $0.48 -$0.50/lb FOB farm for a #2 large kabuli. Feed markets are still in demand as always, and see a bit of a bump in value at $0.35/lb FOB farm.
Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.