Oats continue to move sideways with little change in the market. Old crop values remain range-bound at $4.50-$5.00/bu picked up on the farm for milling quality, while feed values stay soft with bids in the $4.00-$4.25/bu range picked up on the farm. New crop pricing remains firm at $5.00/bu for fall/winter delivery, with a fifty-cent premium for 2025 movement. There isn’t much grower excitement for either old or new crop at these values. While they’re not unfavourable, they seem not quite attractive enough at this stage for any significant sales. If other cereals continue to show lackluster pricing, oats might have a chance to secure some new crop tonnage.
Approaching Christmas, mustard is expected to remain fairly stagnant with slow demand dominating the conversation. Spot prices continue to struggle, while growers begin exploring new crop options. Spot bids can fluctuate day to day, so it’s recommended to discuss an effective marketing strategy with your merchant, considering the varying pricing from different buyers. Yellow mustard spot bids are around the 78 cent per pound range. Brown mustard sits at 57 cents, with movement well into the new year. Oriental mustard remains in the mid-50s and possibly as high as 57 cents for those not sensitive to quick movement. New crop mustard bookings are progressing this week, despite not all buyers having released new crop programs. Programs currently include full crop year shipping (Sep ‘24-Jul ’25) and an act of God clause on 10bpa. Please reach out to us regarding seed, as we have all types and varieties available, including free delivery to the farm. Firm sales targets continue to be the best approach to marketing mustard at this time.
Soybean prices experienced a decline due to an improved weather forecast for Brazil. Further pressure was exerted on this market by a proposed Argentinian currency devaluation, which could impact global soybean trade. Bids are currently ranging from $15.00 to $15.50/bu, depending on the farm’s location. Dry bean bids are receiving support from Mexican and potentially South American demand, driven by lower production. Feed quality fabas continue to maintain support from pet food values, with local bids for export-quality #2 fabas ranging from $11.50 to $12.00/bu FOB farm. Feed quality values are approximately $9.00 to $10.00/bu FOB farm, varying with the location.
The flax market brings little surprise this week, maintaining a quiet atmosphere on both the seller and buyer side. Spot bids linger around the $14.50-$15.00/bu FOB farm range, but even this bid doesn’t seem to be fairly deep at the moment. It’s not uncommon to observe a lack of demand over the holiday season, coupled with uncertainty around railcar shipments and plant shutdowns for the holidays. Recent reports indicate that flax carryover is slightly lower than anticipated, although ending stocks remain satisfactory. In a supply vs. demand scenario, there doesn’t seem to be a pressing need to rush into the market to sell at today’s prices. Exports for the year mainly headed south into the US, with minimal quantities going overseas. Reports continue to suggest large tonnage users such as China are being supplied with lower valued product from countries like Russia. If you’re interested in making sales, posting something on a firm offer may offer slightly higher values in good freight areas or if small programs/opportunities arise.Yellow peas experienced a price increase at the end of last week following a reduction in import tariffs from India. Presently, prices are in the range of $13.00/bu delivered, but this market is volatile and there might be room for strong values if growers are willing to accept shipping windows in the first quarter of 2024. For those holding yellow peas in storage, selling some at these levels while import duties have been removed carries less risk than waiting, as there is no guarantee of permanent change in Indian policy. Green peas are also garnering attention this week, with bids seeing value at $18.00/bu picked up for Jan/Feb. Additionally, for those with unsold maple peas, buyer demand remains prevalent in the market with bids hovering around $26.00/bu picked up, though firm targets on certain varieties may translate into stronger sales contracts. To discuss these strong pea markets further, reach out to your Rayglen merchant.
StatsCan reports showed a slight uptick in chickpea production over the past week, but with no increase in acres, leaving growers somewhat puzzled. Globally, substantial volumes of product are moving from Australia to Pakistan and the UAE, with these nations being the largest buyers. Mexican and Indian crops, being other major suppliers, are still too early to estimate in terms of size or quality. As the Australian crop diminishes, North America becomes the next obvious supplier. This shift could potentially lead to a slight uptick in the market, although it’s worth noting that lower values are trading outside of current domestic trade. Favourable weather conditions in India, with moisture in significant parts of the country during the early stages of crop development, are positive signs, but it is still too soon to make definitive predictions. If the Indian crop does materialize and provide a substantial supply, chickpea prices could remain relatively stable. Feed markets, however, continue to be in demand, with buyers actively searching, although it seems that either the supply is low, or growers are not ready to trigger sales.
Looking at the global wheat market, China made substantial purchases of US soft red wheat last week, totaling over 1.1 million MT. These acquisitions position China to reclaim the projected top spot as the largest global wheat importer this year, with an estimated potential import volume of 12.5 million MT. Canadian wheat exports are showing strength domestically, running 12% ahead of last year’s pace. Local wheat bids, depending on shipping month, are at approximately $9.00-9.10/bu delivered for CPSR, $9.05-9.20/bu for CWRS, and $8.60/bu for CWSWS – all delivered in Saskatchewan for milling quality. Feed wheat indications have been around $8.00/bu, so growers seeking pricing for any feed-quality product are advised to get in touch with their merchant, with type and specifications. In the durum market, values in Canada remain relatively unchanged despite a Tunisia tender for January shipment. The tender, reported for 75,000 MT, is expected to be filled with Turkish durum, given the availability of their inexpensive supply. Current durum bids are posted at $12.75/bu delivered in Saskatchewan for January-March, with possibility for a slight premium in southwest Saskatchewan at $13.00/bu delivered May-June. The first new crop durum bids have been posted at $11.00/bu delivered in Saskatchewan on a DDC.
Barley markets remain stagnant this week, with very little interest from buyers or sellers. Markets are under significant pressure as Canadian exports have decreased, resulting in an increase in on-farm supply. Adding to this, feedlot demand is slow due to the rising use of corn and an overall “non-excitement” for barley. Bids remain in the $5.00-$5.50/bu range for Jan-Mar movement, with not much price carry for summertime delivery. Early indications for new crop pricing are in a similar range as old crop pricing, all indicated as FOB farm. Regarding new crop barley, our calculations show feed barley ranks near the bottom of commodities to plant this year with a projected loss of $7.34/MT based on a $5.50/bu FOB farm contract. As the marketing year progresses, it is unlikely that prices will experience significant upside, as increased grower sales may have a negative impact on the market.
In the canaryseed market, there appears to be a line drawn in the sand between buyers and sellers, with neither willing to budge from their trigger points. This situation could persist indefinitely, as despite reports of smaller production, supplies seem sufficient to meet demand, and no buyer is pushing for product even at these levels. Bids for old crop canaryseed are currently around $0.40-$0.41/lb, picked up on the farm for movement Jan-March of 2024. New crop is being bid at $0.35/lb FOB farm with an Act of God (AOG), which has garnered little to no interest at this stage. We anticipate that growers may reconsider these new crop values if other cereal markets continue to show lackluster performance, but at this stage, if growers are hesitant to sell old crop at a $0.05/lb positive spread up, it is doubtful they will commit acres today. Occasional buyer interest in covering positions has led to the marketing strategy of firm offers on both old and new crop.
The green lentil market continues to show strength for both old and new crop. Limited available tonnage in Western Canada is driving up old crop prices. Currently, #2 large green lentils are trading at a robust 72 cents/lb FOB farm. The bid for #1 small green lentils varies, and it’s recommended to set targets if you have any available. In the US, medium green lentils are trading around 49-50 cents/lb USD FOB farm. Looking ahead to the new crop, large green lentils are bid at 50 cents/lb FOB farm for a #2, small green lentils at 46 cents/lb FOB farm for a #1, and medium green lentils around 35 cents/lb USD for a #1 US. All new crop contracts include an Act of God clause on 10 bu/acre. Anticipated increases in green lentil acreage for the upcoming crop year suggest that taking some risk off the table at these attractive prices could be a prudent move. We also strongly encourage growers planting any type of green lentil to secure their seed immediately, as we are already running into short supply. Red lentils have experienced sporadic strength on the old crop side, trading around 36-37 cents/lb FOB farm for #2 quality. Options are also available for specialty lentils, so whether you have some in the bin or plan to grow them next year, it’s advisable to stay in contact with your merchant and explore potential opportunities.
The canola market is currently in a downturn, reflecting a broader trend of market decline. As of Wednesday morning, January futures, which had recently peaked at $678/MT, have retreated to $658/MT this morning at time of writing. This decline has essentially nullified the gains made at the end of last week. The downward trajectory is in tandem with the soybean market, which experienced significant downward pressure at the beginning of this week. Presently, canola prices are in the mid to high $14 range, with the specific value contingent on the timing of product movement. Observing the market for signs of support will be crucial as participants assess the ongoing dynamics and potential factors influencing future value shifts.
Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.