Given the current state of the oat market, both old and new crop values should already be stuck in your head, but if not, keep reading! Old crop bids continue to trend around $10.00/bu – $10.50/bu FOB farm for Jan./Feb./March movement on #2 milling quality and while those numbers are outstanding, it seems more focus is put on new crop values today. Production contracts range anywhere from $6.50 – up to $7.00/bu on farm depending on delivery timeframe and location. Although these contracts do not carry an AOG buyers are offering a solution, which is to rollover any shortfall on quantity or quality to the following year! We also have a gluten free oat program that carries a $1/bu premium available. Of course, certain criteria must be hit, but if you think this is something that would interest you, please call in to get the details for this program. We can still get our hands on seed as well, but supply will be limited. If you are straddling the fence, now is the time to hop off and join the party as these values are at record levels and can offer other benefits such as higher coverage for crop insurance when contracts are submitted.
There is not much excitement in the pea market as we inch closer to the holidays. Yellow and green peas have both softened coming into this week as export sales have been much quieter. Yellow peas are trading anywhere from $17 – 18/bu picked up, however, the $18 bids are limited and rely heavily on location with movement being pushed out to spring. There have been reports that China may be accepting Russian peas and if that is the case, this will affect Canadian bids negatively as Russian peas are a cheaper option for China. Green pea bids are down to $16/bu delivered as there seems to be very little buyer interest at the moment. Maple peas continue to trade between $18 – $19/bu picked up. We have had a new crop yellow pea bid pop up at $13 – 13.50/bu picked up with an act of God in Eastern Saskatchewan; for more information or pricing in other areas, call your merchant.
Canary seed prices remain sideways at 50 cents/lb picked up for movement after the new year. The spike in bids seen earlier in the fall have dipped and plateaued, but it is still unknown whether there will be a small rally in the spring. At this point, it looks like it will all depend on buyer coverage and if they have already locked in enough product to cover their sales. While immediate demand has been filled, the market hasn’t collapsed, and these bids are still historically strong. New crop bids are also positive and if you are looking to get some tonnage locked in to reduce risk, call your Rayglen merchant for pricing out of your area. Seed availability is another factor to consider this year as we suspect supply will be limited. Please reach out to us as we are happy to help you source anything you’re looking for.
Flax prices have come off their highs, with bids settling in at $40.00/bu picked up this week. With China and Europe buying cheaper flax from the Black Sea region, North America has made the adjustment to price itself accordingly. US demand was driving Canadian values and for now, that need seems to have been filled. Flax prices from the Black Sea region have been flat since October where Canadian flax is no longer competitive. The market seems to be balanced, but the question still remains: will there be potential for a slight upswing as supplies tighten overseas? Only time can answer that question. New crop bids remain in the $24-$25/bu range FOB farm with an act of God depending on location.
It’s been a down week for the canola market as nearby futures have taken a hit, despite ending stocks remaining very tight in Canada. One of the main reasons for the drop seems to be the expectation of an increase in soy oil stocks in the US, which will keep crush margins at bay. January futures now sit at $995/MT, down from $1006/MT last week. March futures are down to $972/MT, compared to $981/MT last week. The calendar is something to keep in mind as some of this weakness can also be contributed to year end spec fund selling. The reality of this market is that prices still need to remain high to discourage exports and this should keep canola values afloat until we get closer to next year’s crop.
The soy market remains supported by robust domestic crush volumes boosted by US meat processing soymeal consumption. Soy oil demand has also seen a pickup due to rising biodiesel purchases. Local soybean bids continue to hover in a range of $14.50-$15.00/bu FOB farm this week. Faba bean values are propped up by strong domestic feed market and US demand for feed protein. Feed fabas continue to trade near $13.00/bu FOB farm with #2 export quality trading at $15.00/bu FOB farm. Dry bean market news is focused on Mexico and Argentina. Mexican bean crops appear to have produced above average volumes as local bids have been slipping as of late.
Chickpea news wires have been up and down for the last 18 months with a push towards higher prices. That tone has changed. While StatsCan reported a production of 76k MT, the smallest since 2009/10 crop year, export numbers have been down for the last 3 consecutive months and below average. Indian and Turkish market prices continue to decline making Canadian values beyond tradable export levels. The US is still the main support for current levels, but there is no certainty of the longevity of that market. It is increasingly difficult to find a reason for an upward trend on chickpeas and according to one well known opinion, it will require a wreck in order for the markets to see the gains that were expected. Suggestions of selling some inventory at todays levels are becoming more common.
Wheat prices continue to bounce between the proverbial hedges so to speak. This market continues to sway back and forth on news of a large Aussie crop ahead, coupled with world wheat ending stocks on the down slope and indications that Russia may lessen wheat exports down the road. As well, on a relatively normal and typical seasonal year Minneapolis tends to make up some ground on KC futures. At these levels that could produce new Minnie highs bolstering bids for Canadian producers. That said, this has been anything but a typical year. Feed wheat values are trading around $11- $11.50/bu on dry heavy product. Milling prices delivered into Central Sask. on a #2 with 13.5% pro hover around $12.70/bu range. Durum continues to trade at $21-$21.50/bu delivered in for the new year on a 1CWAD. Buyers are always looking for offers so if you have a firm bid in mind let your merchant know.
Lentil markets remain stable this week with small red bids sitting at 45-46 cents/lb FOB farm in many locations. Buyers have also shown renewed interest for #1/X2 large lentils with indications at 64 cents/lb FOB farm. Number 2 grade large greens have been trading at similar levels as last week with most bids still in the 60 cent FOB farm range. Small green lentils remain in slow trade, but there has been interest from buyers around 60 cents in the right location for good #1 quality. If you still have good quality French Greens in the bin, give us a call as we have a few buyers interested around 90 cents/lb on farm. Bids do vary based on quantity, location, and quality, but generally growers will be able to secure a contract around that 90-cent mark. New crop pricing is still very quiet regarding all lentils with not many buyers posting bids. Rather, buyers are willing to entertain reasonable offers, so if you have a value in mind, it is encouraged to put out a firm target.
After a week of lower bids and end users filling coffers with corn, the barley market perked back up a bit to $9/bu in a few areas around the province. The rebound raises a couple of questions; first, are feed lots still not getting enough corn and second, is barley still leaving the country at too high of a rate to leave anything in the bin for spring and summer? Movement window seems to be a bigger concern this time of year as fertilizer payments creep into the forefront of grower’s minds. Due to the corn shipments space is limited for many buyers, which means delivery is getting pushed into March in many cases. This problem is not likely to lessen as we move further into January, so if cashflow will be a concern in 2 months’ time, then you need to act now. Malt buyers have been quieter this week with chatter of bids a little north of $10/bu getting tossed around. Demand for malt barley remains meek from what we gather. We did have a small bit of interest in fall feed barley contracts around $6/bu FOB farm, but we know new crop barley is a bit of a swear word for many growers this past year, so just take it as a bit of news.
Mustard continues on a strong path this week. New crop trades, along with seed, have been hitting the books at a faster pace recently. These numbers pencil in very strong on the new crop side with an act of God and we are encouraging growers to take 10bu/ac off the table. Spot yellow and brown mustard are now both trading at $1.30/lb FOB range, or higher, while oriental of any variety should catch the $1.00/lb range FOB farm. New crop values for yellow are in the mid 70’s and new crop brown is bid in the mid to high 60 cent/lb range. Oriental is in high demand for new crop also, but bids are tough to find. Buyers are beginning to rely more on grower offers to get new crop oriental secured. If you have a value in mind, now is your chance to offer it up! It is critical to call your merchant and get up to date information and come up with a marketing strategy on both old and new crop. Again, we still have seed available, which includes delivery to your yard. We are not on short supply yet, but if this pace continues things could get tight.
Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.