As the year-end approaches, the flax market maintains stability with minimal fluctuations in value or demand observed. Old crop indications continue to be quoted around $15.00/bu FOB, influenced by delivery timelines and farm location, and new crop values hover around $14.00/bu, including an act of God. However, buyers are not actively pushing for product at these levels, and sellers appear relatively uninterested in making sales. A noteworthy aspect is the absence of overseas flax exports to date, with reports suggesting only 35,000MT was shipped between August and October. Looking ahead to the spring months, speculation suggests a potential increase in export activity, which could contribute to a rise in pricing, but analysts are still uncertain. Nevertheless, at this stage ample on-farm tonnage suggests that buyers are not compelled to “reach” for product and prompt shipping options remain scarce. Patience may be your friend when it comes to this market.
Feed barley markets seem to have steadied this week and some purchasers are indicating a very modest uptick in value. Freight plays a significant role in on-farm bids, resulting in a wide range of pricing based on farm location. In far western Saskatchewan, there is potential to make sales around $6.00/bushel FOB farm, while central Saskatchewan bids sit closer to $5.50/bushel. Bids are generally quoted for Jan-March pickup, with limited carry for spring shipment, though small opportunities for shorter shipping windows may be attainable. Some buyers are exploring new crop contracts now with indications around $5.50/bushel FOB farm, contingent on location, but grower interest remains subdued. The prevailing sentiment in the barley market leans toward a bearish outlook, emphasizing the importance of monitoring bids and adjusting market strategies accordingly.
The pea market has experienced a quieter week following recent periods of heightened activity. Prices still reflect strong values across various pea types in the spot market. However, trading momentum has subsided due to increasing logistical challenges in achieving tradable values. To simplify, and specifically to the yellow market, we face a strict timeline on yellow pea sales that need to be met. The Indian tariff reduction has a deadline of March 31st, meaning product needs to hit the plant by early January to meet this date. If the tariff isn’t extended, the yellow market could rapidly lose momentum, reverting back to hand to mouth trade. Presently, Yellow peas are priced at approximately $12.50/bu picked up on the farm, green peas are flirting with $20/bu delivered to the plant, and maples maintain a premium at $25/bu picked up on the farm. While there are some new crop price indications circulating in the market, they have yet to generate significant excitement.
As the Christmas break approaches, mustard prices are not anticipated to undergo any dramatic shifts. Reflecting on the year, mustard has witnessed considerable price volatility across all types. The current year appears to be more stable, though spot prices continue to face challenges, while new crop pricing is slow to emerge. Given the fluctuating nature of spot bids, it is advisable to discuss an effective marketing strategy with your merchant. Different buyers have varying daily needs, which means tailoring sales to those needs is key. Yellow mustard spot bids persist around 78 cents per pound, with brown mustard commanding top-end values at the 57-cent range with anticipated movement well into the new year. Oriental mustard seems to be the least sought after, sitting in the mid-50s, possibly reaching as high as 57 cents for those less sensitive to prompt shipping. Despite not all buyers releasing new crop programs yet, new crop mustard bookings are underway. The standard act of God clause at 10 bu/acre applies, but even as little as 5 bu/ac would likely be acceptable to secure bookings. For seed inquiries, we offer all varieties with free delivery to the farm—feel free to reach out to us for more information.
Lentil markets remain a bright spot in marketing as we approach the Christmas break. Old crop large greens continue to trade at 72-73 cents per pound or slightly higher on a firm offer, while small greens persist at the 70-cent level. Red lentils are quoted around 36 cents/lb FOB farm and as high 38 cents delivered pending shipping window. Growers are now contemplating locking in new crop pricing for green lentils. There is discernible interest from buyers at the 50 cents level for a #2 or better LGL, and 47 cents for #1 small green lentils, although, many sellers are hesitant to make commitments due to concerns about moisture and the price differential between old crop and new crop. Despite these reservations, current prices indicate a favourable return per acre for all green lentils, assuming an average crop. Considering the historically high bids on new crop and the potential for increased acres, it is advisable to conduct a risk versus reward analysis to determine the best course of action for your operation.
Canola is actively seeking demand from China. Steady demand for vegetable oil is underpinning crush margins and consequently crush demand. However, export demand for raw seeds remains lackluster. Canadian crush capacity sits around 11 MMT, slightly over half of the available supply for this year, leaving 8.5 MMT dependent on export demand. Australian canola production has declined by 33% year over year to 5.5 MMT. The global oilseed narrative is currently centered on weather conditions in Brazil. Despite these factors, the market is not yet convinced of the need to increase US-origin soybean purchases. As a result, US soybean futures seem to be trending sideways in a 20¢ band. Local bids for canola range from $13.70 to $14.25 FOB farm, with variations depending on the shipping location for Jan/Feb movement.
The global oilseed focus remains on Brazil’s weather conditions, and the market hesitates to intensify US soybean purchases. Consequently, US soybean futures appear to be moving laterally, with bids ranging from $14.75 to $15.25/bu FOB farm, depending on the location. Dry bean bids are receiving support from Mexican and potentially South American demand due to lower production. This support has elevated black and pinto prices recently. Feed-quality fabas continue to find support from pet food values, with local bids for export-quality #2 faba beans ranging from $11.50 to $12.00/bu FOB farm, while feed-quality values are approximately $9.00 to $10.00/bu FOB farm, contingent on location.
The oat market appears to be stuck in a holding pattern, with little to no change in recent weeks. Buyers seem content to maintain old crop values, keeping milling quality bids around $5.00/bu delivered plant for extended movement, while trade activity remains minimal. Old crop feed values persist around $4.00-$4.40/bu for oats weighing 42 pounds and above. Lighter weight options are available, albeit at discounted values. New crop programs are unchanged this week, still ranging from $5.00 to $5.50/bu, with the latter applicable for 2025 movement. These values remain relatively favourable when considering the return on investment compared to some other cereal crops, so perhaps it’s worth considering a return to oat cultivation in the upcoming year. Looking for seed? Reach out to your Rayglen merchant to discuss available options.
The canaryseed market remains subdued as we approach the holiday season, with lower demand and scaled-back exports reported for the start of the 2023/24 marketing year in both Canada and Argentina. Argentina anticipates a 25% reduction in canary acres, potentially impacting exports for the coming year. In Canada, estimating acres is challenging due to unreported production, with one source suggesting approximately 265,000 canary acres for 2023, potentially placing 2024 below the 5-year average of 295,000 acres. Local prices maintain a similar trend to recent weeks, trading at $0.40-0.41/lb FOB farm for new-year movement. New crop contracts, backed by an act of God, are priced at $0.34/lb FOB farm for the initial 10-15 bushels of production.
After some recent wheat activity between China and the US, the wheat markets have settled back into a quieter phase. Despite lower wheat prices, Canada remains 12% ahead of last year’s export pace, offering movement and cash flow opportunities at current levels. Current milling wheat bids for CWRS 13.5% protein range from $8.75 to $9.00/bu, with red and white feed wheat at $8.00/bu and $7.50/bu respectively – all delivered to the plant in Saskatchewan. Turning to durum, buyer bids range between $12.50 and $13.00/bu delivered in Saskatchewan, with stronger values indicating movement into May-June of 2025. Some buyer interest at $13.00/bu FOB farm in southeast Saskatchewan has been noted, so we encourage producers to reach out to their merchant with quality specifications and location. New crop durum bids, inclusive of quality discounts, are now available, with initial values indicated at $11.00/bu delivered in Saskatchewan on a DDC basis. Despite the quiet start for the 2023/24 durum market, early reports suggest a slight increase in durum acres for the 2024 spring, potentially reaching 6.2 million acres—above the 5-year average of 5.67 million acres if this estimate materializes.
Chickpea markets have experienced a notable slowdown as we approach the Christmas season, prompting growers to carefully consider their crop rotations for the upcoming year. For those contemplating chickpeas and in need of seed, please let us know as we have Clearfield and various other varieties available. Old crop values have slightly declined from previous weeks, currently ranging from $0.52 to $0.55/lb FOB farm for Jan-Mar movement, pending sizing. Some buyers have temporarily withdrawn their bids, opting to reassess in the new year. If you have any unsized product, now is an opportune time to address this and gain a clearer understanding of potential value. New crop bids hover around $0.45/lb FOB farm with an Act of God (AOG) for movement between September and December, with a typical 10bu/acre commitment. It’s important to note the “first right of refusal” clause in these contracts, which grants the owner of the first 10bu/ac an opportunity to purchase any overage if you choose to bring it to market. If there’s any confusion regarding this clause, feel free to reach out, and we can provide a detailed explanation. Feed/pet food markets for chickpeas remain unchanged at $0.35-$0.36/lb. This price has held steady for several months and is not expected to undergo significant changes in the near future.
Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.