Sask Ag yield estimates on canaryseed came in around 27bpa according to its final crop report of the season. Three weeks earlier it was only estimated around 19 bushels per acre, quite the jump and maybe some of the reason bids have flattened off. StatsCan yield estimates are very similar, around 28 bushels per acre, so we suspect there is likely some truth to these numbers. As mentioned, canaryseed prices have been sluggish these past few weeks, struggling to creep over that 30-cent mark and some buyers have dropped bids to the high 20’s. Our buyers have purchased a good chunk since harvest and the need to push bids higher seems moot. Bids today still hover the 30c/lb range for the most part with movement into the new year, most likely Jan-Mar. We have had some rumors of new crop contracts floating around as well, it is not a bad idea to start thinking about throwing a target out with an Act of God. Call your Rayglen merchant to discuss putting up an offer for the 2020/2021 crop year.
Flax prices remain steady at $14.00/bu FOB for milling quality this week. The #1 price varies a little depending on quality, but hovers around $13.00/bu picked up in the yard. For those with lower grades, samples are preferred so we can get a reading on dockage, color and oil content. This will ensure we capture the best value for your product. Yellow flax prices are still in the $16.00-$16.50/bu range picked up. Sask Ag flax reports came in at 24bu/acre for an average yield. It is also noted that 21% of the flax crop was still out in the field as of November 21st. There have been some deliveries on flax over that last few weeks, catching up to last year’s shipments. Chinese imports in October mostly came from Russia as per analysts. Delays in Canadian harvest is one of the main reasons Chinese demand has been pushed towards the Black Sea region. Flax bids have been firming up and some prices in China and the EU are reflecting this. The US bids have also crept up, but not enough to signify tight supplies. The biggest unknown is still the crop size of the Black Sea region.
Once again and for another week, wheat prices remain stagnant. Look to see milling Durum holding steady at $8.30/bu in that south east corner picked up on farm and anywhere from $7.50 – $7.88/bu delivered into plant for everyone else. A #1 red spring with 13.5 protein and dry is sitting a $6.10 – $6.35/bu delivered into plant. On the feed side, prices are holding steady in that $4.45 – $4.80/bu picked up at the bin. Knowing the specs on your wheat will go a long way into finding the best market for it. A couple tidbits in world wheat news, Australia’s output is the lowest it’s been since 2008 due to major drought conditions. Coupled with that is news that crop planting for the new year is forecasted to decrease nearly 20%. As well, France and Britain are experiencing heavy rain hampering the outlook on next year’s harvest. Currently Russia has seen another pricing increase this week on wheat as there has been an up tic in demand opportunities on the domestic and export side.
Chickpea yields on this year final StatCan report are down 31lbs/acre (0.5bu/ac) which would estimate the 2019 crop production to come in at 230,000MTS, 26% less than last year. With carry and production, we can still expect a supply of 370,000 MTS which is close to last year’s high. Quality has been a concern but even those reports are not as sad sack as earlier predicted. 38% of production will make a #2 compared to last year of 35%. Sample grade had the highest jump from 23% compared to 8% last year. Trades still occur in the range of $0.26-$0.27/lb FOB farm for Dec-Feb with grower offers coming in at $0.28/lb FOB farm. Feed values range from $0.10-$0.12/lb depending on the downgrading factor. There has been talk of new crop values @ $0.24 FOB depending on the location. Call the office to put targets in or discuss seed and new crop options.
Another slow week for oats. Buyers are still on the hunt for slightly below milling quality oats as a feed play or mix and blend opportunity. Feed oats have been trading between $2.60-$2.80/bu FOB farm for nearby movement and milling quality bids range between $3.50 to $3.80/bu FOB farm in the best freight areas. All bids are based on heavy oats that are under 14% moisture. New crop bids are also present with indications of $3.40 delivered range. Call your merchant for firm bids FOB your farm.
The pea market has had a steady amount of trades happening throughout the past week. Yellow peas had $6.50/bu FOB trading, which was hit and miss due to location, but we saw some trade in North West Sask. Other locations were trading closer to $6.25/bu FOB. Green peas are still trading at $10.50 – 11.00/bu FOB and maple peas at $9.00/bu FOB. New crop contracts have yet to come out, but we continue to steadily trade seed peas. If you are looking to update your old variety or just get into planting peas, give us a call. We have certified Spectrum yellow peas, which have shown good lodging and protein specs as well as certified Forest greens, which have the highest yield potential. For those that are looking for specialty peas, we have certified maple and common duns kicking around as well.
The red lentil market had an exciting day Friday, to end November strong. We had luck trading a good amount of reds at 20 cents picked up on farm, mainly for growers that had firm targets in. This week trades continue to take place at those values on a case by case basis, but not at the same pace as last week. Be sure to get you target in if this value is a trigger point! At these levels putting some sales on the book is likely not a terrible idea as India is still not real hungry for lentils and tariffs remain in place. If you are sitting on X3 or #3 lentils give your merchant a call as we have many buyers looking for this quality. Large green lentils remain stable for another week at that 24 cent FOB farm for a #2. We haven’t had much released for new crop lentil contracts, but we do have buyer looking for growers to sign up beluga lentils on limited acres. Call for details.
Patience remains the name of the game for many canola growers out there hoping to see a futures rally in the coming months. This week has shown us more of the same sideways trading levels that we’ve been looking at for months. Spot bids to move soon have been struggling to see $10/bu delivered while slightly over the $10/bu mark is out there for deferred months. Delayed pricing options are available for anyone with storage concerns. With all the tough and borderline binned grain this year, it may not be a bad idea to get it out and delivered and give the futures a chance to rally.
Soybean futures have bounced off of recent market lows with some rumors of longer-term recovery based on technical signals and short-covering. Market wires continue to drone on about progress in the US/China trade dispute. Undoubtedly plant 2020 debates will begin to erupt and if there is indication of a need to increase soybean acres then you might see a market rally. Local soybean bids are trading in the range of $10.00-$10.25/bu picked up on farm. North American dry bean production has hit serious hurdles in both quantity and quality. This set back has offered support to the current market and it appears this same price support will spill into new crop production contracts. Faba quality and production quantity varies strongly across Western Canada, which is actually the norm. Number 2 export quality zero tannin faba bids are thin but have achieved $8.50 FOB farm for top-notch quality. Feed faba market is trading a little plus or minus either side of $6.00/bu delivered.
Mustard seems stuck in the same trading range again this week. We are seeing routine export demand and buyers saying coverage is well met at this time… so, we remain in this pattern with just small changes to report. In general, the short-term outlook remains sideways in our opinion. We are starting to see slight weakness in spot brown mustard recently, while spot yellow remains strong having a possible 40 cent FOB trade available. Brown has slipped to the 29-cent range and 30 FOB is becoming very hard to secure. Oriental remains at the 24-cent range depending on variety. New crop contracting has begun for all types, and some really strong bids have been seen on yellow mustard. Please call your merchant for details and possible targets. Mustard seed sales for 2020 production are underway. Please call for details on all types of mustard seed, treated and delivered to your farm.
This week there is some opportunity in malt barley markets that are paying decent values. We are looking for samples to submit, but at the same time we face a significant back log of grading to be done, so it takes some time to work through. If you have malt quality or borderline specs, please send some samples in, but be prepared for delayed responses on results. Feed markets are getting tougher with lack of available trucks going west. Freight rates have pushed up and bids have taken a hit for that. Most recent trades are $3.75/bu picked up in central Sask areas with some better pricing pushed way, way, way out into late spring/summer 2020 at $4.00/bu picked up in the yard. High moisture and light weight continue to be issues so know your product before marketing it.
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