Green lentils continue to be a bright spot in the market, with exceptional bids being posted for both old and new crop, which showcase values near all-time highs. Currently, spot markets allow sellers to capture #2 large green lentil sales at 71-72 cents/lb picked up in the yard, depending on the movement window. Small greens have reached 65 cents FOB with stronger values available as a delivered plant bid. Medium green lentils are commanding an impressive 49 to 50 cents/lb FOB farm USD, depending on the area. New crop bids stand at 45 cents for #1 small greens, 50 cents for #2 large greens, and 34-36 cents (USD) for #2 medium greens; all FOB farm and include full act of God. While there is presently support at these levels, the market can shift without notice so we encourage growers to start making sales if you haven’t already. Red lentil bids saw a slight increase this week, with buyers entertaining 36 to possibly 37 cents for #2 quality as a picked-up price, contingent on the area and movement timeline. Reds still face external price pressure from competitors like Australia, which seems to be a main factor in the lack of market activity. Analysts anticipate a rise in new crop acres for green lentils globally, thus securing production contracts and locking in profits is a wise marketing strategy. For specialty lentils like french green or black lentils, buyers are actively seeking product, making it a good time to connect with your favourite merchant.
StatsCan’s recent release reported a significant number Monday morning, placing total Canadian wheat production at 31.96MMT, a 2MMT increase from its September estimate. The boost was attributed to increased spring wheat production. Durum estimates were slightly lowered by 14K MT, and winter wheat remained relatively stable at 3.14MMT. Notably, China made its largest purchase of U.S. SRW since 2020, acquiring 440K MT. Feed wheat bids hover around $8.00/bu, while CWRS 13.5 pro bids range from $9.10 to $9.30/bu delivered SK. Durum bids sit at $12.75/bu delivered for January-March shipping, with a slight premium for May-June delivery in SE Sask; utilizing our offer system is recommended.
Barley markets continue to adjust this week showing a decline in pricing and demand in recent days. The influx of corn into feedlots, combined with ample feed tonnage on farm, remains the biggest influencer and most purchasers note that an upswing in value is unlikely. Old crop values for feed quality barley range from $5.25 to $5.50/bu FOB farm, with Jan–March movement. Historically, these prices remain relatively strong for feed barley. Waiting for a price surge at this stage isn’t recommended, as increased selling will likely lead to further price decreases in a very tight supply vs. demand market. Malt indications remain limited, but providing grade specs might generate added interest. While throwing out a firm offer may still trigger some interest, general feedback suggests buyers are not aggressively searching for tonnage.
Chickpea markets remain relatively flat this week. The expectation is that we will see increased acres for the coming year, but grower focus seems to be on finding green lentil seed, leaving the impact on chickpeas uncertain. New crop bids sit around $0.45/lb FOB farm with an act of God (AOG), while old crop still trades around $0.55/lb FOB farm unless product carries a higher percentage of 9mm in the mix, which can command stronger values. Get your product sized before marketing! Feed and sample grade markets are quiet, potentially due to a lack of selling. In general, it is believed that both good quality and off-spec product remains in the bin, which could help to explain the lack of price movement. The flat market may result in buyers’ complacency, with no pressure to push for higher bids. However, a $0.55/lb bid on #2 chickpeas is noteworthy, considering the global supply and significant carry-in. For more information or if you need seed, feel free to reach out.
The flax market is relatively quiet on the buying side this week, with prices hovering around $15.00/bu picked up. There’s a possibility of slightly better prices for movement pushed out to May, so it’s advisable to contact your Rayglen merchant with an offer. The EU and China have shown a lack of demand, likely influenced by product shipments from the Black Sea region and China’s current inventories need to be worked through before we can anticipate any increased demand. Argentina has been shipping flax, primarily to Brazil, while most Canadian flax supplies are directed to the US. However, the demand from the US is not substantial enough to trigger a rally in prices. The flax market currently perceives no supply concerns, explaining the absence of new crop prices.
Pea markets continue to experience another strong week, despite StatsCan’s yield estimate increasing 15%. Overall, this had minimal impact on the market as pea production remains below last year’s levels, keeping supply tight. Yellow peas have traded as high as $12.75/bu delivered this week, while greens are quoted as high as $18.50/bu delivered and maple peas sit at $25.00-$26.00/bu FOB farm. High bleached green peas face marketing challenges due to limited interest in product over 5%, but the odd opportunity has popped up. Make sure to keep your merchant up to date with sales targets. New crop pricing remains slow to come out, but indications show a $3-$4 gap between yellow and green peas at this time, while maples are likely to capture values $3 higher than greens. Finding maple pea seed is becoming difficult, potentially helping to keep acres in check for one more year. While green and yellow pea seed are in better supply than maples, securing your supply sooner than later is advisable.
The soybean market awaits fresh news out of Brazil. Markets expect potential production downgrades to Brazil’s 2023/24 soybean crop due to ongoing hot, dry weather. Recent private export data was released through the USDA and stated a 5.0-million-bushel soybean sale to China. Locally, bids are in the range of $15.00-$15.50/bu FOB farm, location dependent. Dry bean bids are seeing support from Mexican and potentially South American demand due to lower production. Feed quality fabas continue to be supported by pet food values. Local bids on export quality #2 faba being in the range of $11.50-$12.00/bu FOB farm and feed quality values are near $9.00-$10.00/bu FOB farm, again contingent on location.
The canary market maintains a subdued presence, with pricing holding steady around $0.40-$0.41/lb picked up on the farm for movement in the next couple of months. StatsCan has not made any changes to its seeded area, a tendency that may lean towards underreporting, a characteristic not uncommon for this crop. With quiet demand and a smaller crop size, there doesn’t seem to be much concern regarding supply numbers, as demand (or the lack thereof) will likely find the cover it needs. New crop values remain fixed at $0.35/lb picked up on the farm with an Act of God. However, there has been little interest on the grower side, resulting in a quiet sales market.
Oats continue to maintain a restrained tone as prices fall back to ranges that growers are hesitant to sell. Feed bids hover in the $4.00-$4.50/bu range, while milling bids range from $4.50 to $5.00/bu picked up on the farm. With some extended movement on this old crop, producers seem content to hold onto their oats until they observe an uptick in pricing. Trade activity remains light to nonexistent, contributing to a bearish outlook on oats. End users suggest that StatsCan’s reported production number of 2.6MMT may actually be lower. Time will reveal whether a correction is seen in the next report. Looking ahead to new crop, quotes linger around $5/bu, which, given the outlook for other cereal crops, may serve as a reasonable starting point for growers to penciling it in.
The canola market is currently facing significant losses, with January futures at $650/MT at the time of writing. This marks a $50/MT drop week over week, underscoring the increased volatility in the markets. Speculative funds have been aggressively selling off canola, particularly following the latest StatsCan report, which reported a substantial increase in canola production. The crude selloff this week has further contributed to the notable drop in futures pricing. While a downtrend was anticipated by some analysts before the StatsCan report, these numbers have accelerated the process. It is crucial to monitor local basis numbers to optimize your cash price and maintain canola profitability on your farm.
Spot mustard prices continue to move sideways this week, with buyers reporting slow demand. As December begins, it seems this trend may persist until the new year, but at this stage, only time will tell. Spot bids can fluctuate day to day, so it’s advisable to discuss an effective marketing strategy with your merchant. That said, bid indications are quoted in the high 70 cent per pound range for #1 yellow and in the 60s for brown, while oriental remains in the mid-50s. New crop mustard has shown slowed activity this week as some purchaser’s lower values. The buying pool remains shallow, but opportunities do exist to sell next year’s production; we believe using a firm offer may be the best approach to secure contracts at this time. Programs currently include full crop year shipping (Sep ‘24-Jul ’25) and an act of God clause on 10bpa. Seed sales are on the rise, with all types and varieties available including free delivery to the farm. For pricing, information on treatment options and supply inquiries, feel free to reach out to our team!
Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.