The barley game continues to be a strong market. Feed values are currently trading at an average of $6.00/bu at the bin and if you are still sitting on some, now is the time to market it. This value could very well trade 25-50 cents higher pending your location and the quantity you have to sell. The malt market remains quiet as maltsters try to peg down what they are going to have left to move for old crop as we push into the Spring months. New crop feed is still sitting right around the $5.00/bu value which is also an area dependant figure. Show us what you have as there might be wiggle room in value based on location and tonnage. There is not much to speak of on new crop malt, but it is safe to say you could target the $5.50/bu range today. Although Metcalfe and Copeland still seem to trade as the Malt variety of choice, the current market spread between feed vs. malt should have you heavily considering seeding one of the newer varieties of Malt barley. Synergy, Connect, etc. leave you with two windows of opportunity as you can get close to, if not the same yield on these as some of the feed varieties. You now have the option of pursuing feed and malt markets rather than just one or the other. Our general thought is, now is the time to sell what remains in the bins because although the prices of feed are high, we can’t say for how much longer. Remember that the market tends to slowly rise on the way up but crash on the way down. Don’t miss out.
Tight ending stocks is the main discussion within the pea market, and not just for Canada but for the global market as well. Canadian ending stocks will be low this year and even if acres rise this growing season, stocks could remain tight into the 2021-2022 marketing season. This, of course, is dependent on Chinese demand and the assumption of no trade disruptions occurring due to political issues. The Black Sea Region is also tight on supply which is holding favorable for values. However, this will also lead to an acreage increase for this Region, which will affect the Canadian market, as they also have access to Chinese markets. Current bids on yellow peas sit at $11.00/bu FOB, with new crop at $9.00/bu FOB farm including an Act of God. Green peas are priced at $9.25-9.50/bu picked up on old and $9.00/bu picked up on new, also containing an Act of God. Maple peas had a slight increase on old crop to $10.50/bu picked, while new crop remains at $9.00/bu picked up with an Act of God.
Yet again the feed wheat market continues its upwards trend with product trading in the $7.25 to $7.75/bu FOB farm range across the Prairies. Firm bids depend on the location of the grain and freight costs, with the highest bids being seen as you move South and West towards feed lot alley. That said, opportunities do arise for feed wheat to go East, so keep in touch with your merchant. The milling CWRS market is strong as well, with #1, 12.5% protein bids ranging from $7.70 to $7.90/bu delivered. You can still get a touch more for 13.5% protein as bids range from $7.85 to $8.05/bu delivered this week. New crop durum has been quiet over the last little while, but we suspect growers can still get some product on the books at $8.25/bu to $8.50/bu FOB farm in the Southeast part of Saskatchewan. Old crop durum values vary between $8.50 to $9.00/bu delivered in many areas.
After a fantastic run up over the past week, May and July canola futures have dipped slightly back today. At time of writing, May futures are at $764.50/MT, compared to $710/MT at the same time last week. July futures are at $730.50/MT, compared to last week when they were at $678/MT. The story has not changed with the big increases earlier in the week due to tight supplies and the need for high prices to ration demand. This continues to drive the market up. There was some support from soybean markets rising, but not to the same extent as canola. Political news kept eyes on canola futures this week as Canada’s house of commons voted to declare that China is committing genocide against Uighurs and other Muslims in its Western Region. China has used commodities such as canola as a political weapon in the past and we will have to wait to see if they use them again.
Flax bids remain sideways this week and depending on movement time frame, range anywhere from $21.00-$23.00/bu picked up on farm. New crop has also flattened out around $16-$16.50/bu FOB farm with an Act of God. We know prices must flatten off at some point, however, there is no consistent pattern from previous years of when a downturn is to be expected. Flax values globally are up from previous years and thus far we have no reports of rationing demand yet. Demand from the EU and US is keeping prices at bay for now. The main risk in this market is flax held up at the Chinese border from the Black Sea Region. Once that flax starts to move, there will be more availability to the market. Looking further down the road, new crop acres are also expected to increase in key markets, which could have adverse effects.
The oat market remains strong this week and factors like the pandemic and new importers are not only driving values but holding them as well. We have milling buyers today that are looking for product around that $4.25/bu range picked up on a #1CW, depending on freight costs. We also have feed buyers that are looking as well, with values around $3-3.50/bu picked up on the farm. New crop is also strong with bids around $4/bu FOB farm, not including AOG. The seeded acreage reports do show that oats will be down this year, so putting targets slightly above market bids may not be a bad idea.
Canaryseed continues its holding pattern this week. Currently, buyers are really looking at getting some new crop acres on the books for Fall. Values today are sitting at $0.28/lb FOB farm, with an Act of God on 10bu/acre. Based on recent years, this is a great starting point to get some of your acres locked up. If historical values aren’t enough, the seeded acreage report estimates almost a 10% increase in plantings from last year. Keep in mind we still have seed available with delivery to farm options as well. Old crop bids continue to hover around $0.32/lb FOB farm for deferred Spring/Summer delivery or $0.31/lb for prompt movement.
Soybean futures found continued support due to shipping delays in Brazil & crude oil lending strength to veg oil. Furthermore, the broken Brazilian energy sector is starving farmers of diesel and delaying both harvest and planting. Local soybean bids now hover around $15.50 bu picked up depending on location. The faba bean market remains largely focused on domestic feed demand. Feed faba bids are in the range of $8.00/bu FOB farm, location dependent. Dry bean market prices remain well supported. For future price direction one will need to pay attention to the Mexico Winter harvest (Mar.-June) and Argentina (May-June). New crop dry bean contracts are available at attractive price levels. Contact Rayglen to book now!
Chickpea markets continue to see the upward push this week, with trades happening on #2 large Kabuli’s around $0.33/lb FOB farm for March/April movement. These values are not widespread among all customers and it is expected to come back down once the World Food tender is filled. Buyer predictions all agree that the chickpea market will move up and down as tenders come and go. Currently there is not a single steady importing country that has presented itself to keep the momentum going for the unforeseeable. New crop has not congruently seen the same uptick and remains around $0.25-$0.27/lb FOB farm with an AOG for Sept.-Dec. delivery based on freight sensitivity. Sample chickpeas are still hovering around $0.17-$0.19/lb FOB farm as well, depending on downgrading factors.
Lentil markets have softened a little since last week but remain attractive. Large green lentils are now trading at $0.38/lb delivered with an unwillingness of buyers to push higher. That is down a cent from last week as the feeling amongst buyers is that there are more green lentils available than previously thought. Small greens are still trading up to $0.35/lb FOB farm for #1 quality while new crop is bid at the $0.28/lb FOB with an Act of God. Reds lentils are quiet this week with reports of some buyers dropping their bid to $0.28/lb delivered and rumors of more to come. As we get closer to the Indian harvest, we will likely see some pressure put on Canadian values. New crop reds are still trading anywhere between $0.26-$0.265/lb FOB farm with an Act of God. Right now, every buyer wants to get some coverage going into next Fall, but once those acres are filled, the market may pause until later in Summer.
After what has been a very exciting couple of months in bids, we now see no change. This week we saw stable mustard pricing on both old and new crop. The battle for acres continues as the general market has been on a tear and we don’t expect that to change in the near future. Spot bids are still showing $0.41-$0.42/lb on yellow mustard, $0.37-$0.39/lb on brown mustard and $0.30-$0.32/lb on Oriental mustard. Talk to your merchant about offers if you have a target, as we may be able to negotiate on price and movement. New crop bids are strong as well with yellow sitting at $0.42/lb and brown up at $0.38/lb now, FOB farm with an Act of God. Forge or Vulcan Oriental are showing stronger bids as well and have traded as high as $0.34/lb for Sept. to July 2022 with an Act of God. Cutlass is now at $0.32/lb for new crop picked up with an AOG, which is a very strong starting point. Please call us to discuss all your new crop movement times and seed options. Seed has been selling steady, so give us a call if you are in need; we have great prices on all colors and varieties of mustard delivered to your yard, treated or un-treated.
Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.