We still see the same factors affecting the pea market this week; ongoing rail blockades hurt the short-term outlook, while the coronavirus is expected to affect demand in the future. Looking to India, they are expected to have decent pea yields this year, which will most likely keep tariffs in play. Locally, we saw green peas take a step back from the $11/bu FOB mark as they trade closer to $10.50/bu this week. Yellow peas are still at $7.00/bu delivered and finding a bid on maple peas is getting harder each week. New crop values are still quiet at $8 – $8.50/bu FOB on greens and yellows at $6.00/bu FOB.
The barley market is holding strong and $4/bu FOB farm is attainable in a few areas. Movement has been the deciding factor lately, as most buyers push into spring (April- May). This timeline is the norm for the most part, but some bids are being quoted for summer delivery, so locking up barley now is likely a good play. We are going to see corn move into the market at cheaper values in the near term and that is going to affect this market negatively. If you are able to market $4/bu FOB, we recommend taking advantage of it while you can. New crop values have been trading at $3.50 – $4/bu FOB with the stronger bids in southwest Sask and movement going into January – February.
The latest Stats Can reports show Canadian flax supplies down 30,000 tonnes from last year and the smallest since 2004/05. This has had no bearing on prices over the last several months with flax remaining at $14.00/bu for milling brown and $13.00/bu on #1 quality. New crop prices are sitting at $12.50/bu picked up. Yellow flax also remains stagnant at an indicated $16.00/bu FOB on old crop for high quality. There was a bit of a buying flurry late January, early Feb, but only minimal amounts of flax were shipped out of the country and that demand has faded off again. The Black Sea region continues to ship out flax at a record pace since the 2019 harvest. Flax prices in China have bumped a bit due to difficulties of bringing in Canadian or Russian supplies, but local prices still remain flat.
Chickpea markets reported 40,000MTS of export so far this year compared to last year of 60,000MTS with the predominant buyer being Pakistan. India is inching closer and closer to producing what could be a record chickpea crop and the Australian production is only slightly down with lower acres but higher yields. Current crop values hover at $0.24-$0.25/lb FOB farm and new crop slightly below. While it appears acres will not decrease globally in a significant way, it has been a hot topic for growers on deciding whether or not to sign production contracts. Largely the response is “Not at these levels” so suspect heavy spot trades in the 4th quarter of 2020. Desi chickpea markets are still quiet in North America and no indication of new crop values has emerged. Feed chickpeas come in around $.10/lb with value shifting sharply depending on downgrading factors.
Oats prices have been a lot tougher to track down this week as the oat’s futures have fallen off from the $3/bu US range to the $2.85/bu US range. Much of this likely traces back to the issues the whole market, grain, and stock, face with coronavirus. Quick, look through the report and count how many times you see coronavirus, I would bet its more than 10 times, this is just the newest issue causing all sorts of market turmoil and it’s affecting everything. Expectations are that oat seeded acres will be up have slowed down buyer interest in locking in product for the fall, while bids are tougher to track down.
Soybean markets are getting pretty beat up by world issues right now as coronavirus, issues in palm oil and market instability all seem to weigh in. Currently, our bids picked up in the yard start with a $9, or in some cases, where freight costs add another kick to the teeth, an $8. Increased production from South America and out of the US, with acres coming back in from prevent plant, don’t paint a pretty forecast at this time either. Faba bean markets remain quiet this week as world supplies are back closer to norms which makes our small market less attractive. New crop prices have been tossed around near $8.00/bu picked up on edible quality, which is not a bad starting point for those growing the right varieties. Old crop opportunities on fabas still exist at $9-$9.50 range on #2 and $6/bu on feed quality.
Wheat has seen very little gain over the past while in feed or milling markets, but both remain relatively stable. The Coronavirus has put fear in world markets and is likely not leaving out wheat. The protestors and rail blockades have also hurt markets with product either not being shipped or loaded. With that being said, the feed wheat market has been trading between $4.50 to $5/bu FOB farm range. The closer you are to feedlot alley or Saskatoon, the better the prices have been. On CWRS with 13.5% protein, $6.30 to $6.45 for the summer months have been indicated bids, delivered plant. Lower protein, around 12.5%, carries roughly a 30-cent discount. On the milling durum side of things, the bids have been around $7.75 to $8.00/bu FOB the farm range more so in the southeast part of the province for further out movement. New crop durum has had similar values for 2020/2021 movement.
The markets are calm and quiet on canary seed right now. Pricing seems to be holding steady in that 28-29 cents/lb delivered to plant for Mar-May movement. Moving forward, we will continue to see tight carry-out stocks for the remainder of the crop year. What remains to be seen though is when the second round of buying comes into play, what impact on pricing does it have. Are the buyers long, thus covered quite well? Or are they short and needing more? This remains to be seen, so stay tuned. Looking ahead to new crop, we have seen the odd offer trigger, but once again the market is pretty quiet. Based on last week’s Stats Can, they’re forecasting increased acres due to marginally higher returns relative to other commodities and strong pricing that has been seen this year. Will we see these prices next year? Probably not, unless… we locally or globally run into a wreck this upcoming crop year pushing tight stocks even harder.
Lentils holding strong this week with old crop unchanged and new crop pricing available for red lentils. Old crop reds continue to trade around the 22-cent mark for spot delivery. New crop reds have been trading on firm offer at 20 cents FOB farm with an Act of God. Harvest in India is about to start, and this should add some clarity to their supply and demand needs. Large greens remain unchanged with number #2 at 22 cents FOB Farm. No new crop trades have been done yet for the large green lentils as the price seems to be lower than what producers would like to sign. Suspect that buyers will sit on the sidelines for a couple more weeks before really getting into the mode of buying crop for next fall. Most will wait for early India harvest results and for a clearer picture on Canadian seeded acreage breakdown. The consensus seems to be lentil acres will increase but will it be a shift into reds or large greens, and do the other remaining lentil classes remain unchanged.
Canola had a bad start on Monday, and Tuesday wasn’t much better, with a tiny rebound to start today. The gains today are minimal compared to the heavy losses at the beginning of the week. Monday saw a $7-$8/ tonne hit followed by another $2/tonne hit on Tuesday and this morning trading with about $1/tonne gain. All markets took a hit on more concerns over the Coronavirus, but this not the only concern for the canola market. Canadian Rail issues, decent crops coming out of other countries, the slowdown in the Chinese market and just overall lack of global trading on all products. The markets will remain on unstable ground until more clarity comes out on the aforementioned problems.
Mustard markets again remain quiet with prices trading flat from last week. Predicted acres being planted this year remain a debate. We have seen predictions all the way from 430,000 acres up to 500,000. This should be much clearer in a month. Good opportunities are still here for new crop bookings at good values. Yellow mustard bids sit at 40 cents/lb FOB for spot and 38 cents/lb on new crop with an Act of God. Brown mustard traded this week with old and new crop bids at 28 cents/lb FOB farm and Oriental old crop at 25 cents vs 28 cents/lb FOB farm for new crop Forge or Vulcan. There is still an opportunity to get in on an IP brown mustard program which takes a bit of extra work but also has a premium for your time. Call for information about this program and new crop offers. If you are looking for Certified seed at a competitive price call us for details as we carry a wide range, and have it delivered to your yard.
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