Pea markets maintain a similar trend to last week. The yellow pea sector hinges largely on India’s decision regarding the extension of zero import tariffs, though updates on this matter are not expected until the end of March. Bids for yellow peas seem to have stabilized, now hovering around $13.00/bu delivered in many cases, while new crop bids are indicated closer to $9.00/bu FOB with an act of God. With India currently well-covered, buyers show less enthusiasm for yellow peas compared to only a couple weeks ago and seem to be focusing on other types. Green peas are in demand, commanding bids at $18.00/bu FOB for #2 spec, while higher bleached green peas also have renewed interest – discuss pricing with your merchant as bleach percentage will determine final value. New crop green peas remain slow to trade, but we encourage growers to try targets around $13.50-$14.00/bu FOB farm with AOG. It is anticipated that green pea acres will be up this coming season, though the extent of that growth may be limited by seed availability. Maple peas are still in demand, priced around $26.00/bu FOB for old crop, while new crop stands at $18.00/bu FOB.
Despite a drop in futures this morning, the canola market exhibits a modest gain in pricing this week, countering the long-term downward trend of the past 6 months. This positive development, if sustained, would be encouraging for canola producers. As of now, March futures stand at $625/MT, with May and July showing a slight carry at $631/MT and $636/MT, respectively. Current demand is primarily driven by local crush, with indications that the export market for raw canola seed is facing challenges. Looking ahead to new crop, November futures surpass current market values at $634/MT, translating to just over $14/bushel for next year’s crop, though fluctuations in value may be seen depending on local basis levels.
Canaryseed markets remain quiet with minimal fluctuation in pricing, demand, and overall market activity. Buyers continue to quote values in the $0.40/lb FOB farm range, while indications for new crop hover around $0.34 – $0.35/lb FOB farm, including an act of God. Sellers, on the other hand, maintain a cautious stance, and transactions at these values are limited. Buyers seem satisfied with their current situation, showing no immediate need to push for tonnage or increase value. While the current offers for both old crop and new crop are at historically favourable levels, growers with firm sales targets in mind are invited to throw out a firm offer, though targets significantly higher than posted values likely go unnoticed. Projections for 2024 suggest an increase in acres year over year, but still below the 5-year average, which makes us wonder if this will be the new norm for the canary world. The prices indicated today should still bring lucrative returns to the farm, making them worth considering if you’re in need of bin space and cash flow.
Crop production show was last week in Saskatoon, SK and growers were pacing the halls of Prairieland talking chickpeas and all other types of commodities with anyone willing. This week is traditionally awaited to gauge potential changes in market values, but generally, chickpeas remain unchanged. Old crop values undergo a slight decline, with opportunities at $0.51-$0.52/lb FOB farm for #2 quality, requiring confirmation before booking. Buyers show curiosity in larger lots, but overall interest remains stagnant. New crop bids stand steady at $0.45/lb FOB farm, with an AOG for the first 10bu/acre, negotiable if the commitment of 10 bushels proves challenging. New crop acres remain quiet in terms of bookings. Feed and sample markets maintain stability, with bids at $0.36/lb FOB farm. If you’re seeking seed or wish to discuss new and old crop opportunities, feel free to reach out.
Barley prices have exhibited a modest uptick as the week progresses. In the previous week and early this week, barley interest from buyers was predominantly around $5/bu in most areas of the province, slightly better further west. However, recent bids have shown an increase, reaching into the $5.50/bu range, particularly for summer delivery in northwestern Saskatchewan. While it’s unclear if the cold weather has influenced prices, it seems unlikely that support is stemming from corn futures. It’s worth noting that the price premium has been deferred to the summer months, as many buyers are adequately covered for immediate needs. There is some discussion about fall prices for barley, with bids north of $5/bu picked up on the farm, sparking consideration among growers. However, few have actively engaged in future sales at this point.
Analysts anticipate a decrease in flax acres for 2024 with reports suggesting a possible decline of 10%. If Canadian exports improve, it could alleviate some of the carry-over burden, which paired with a decline in acres, may add some bullishness to flax markets next season. Presently, most of our exports have been directed to the US, as China maintains sufficient stock without any foreseeable demand. If Europe re-enters the market, it may spur movement of Canadian stock in the spring and reports of quality issues from Russia and Kazakhstan could further boost Canadian exports to Europe. Flax bids remain stable, with limited buyer interest. For early movement by March, prices are holding at $14.50/bu picked up, though there have been small trades done for April–May in the $15.50/bu range. The yellow flax market is also quiet, but let your Rayglen merchant know about any yellow flax on farm so we can help explore available options.
At the Crop Production Show last week, discussions regarding the oat market revealed that on-farm inventory have moved quite consistently, warranting some optimism that, in the remaining portion of the crop year, we might see an uptick in pricing. Countries such as India, China, and Mexico are exploring the use of oats, seeking to capitalize on the health benefits of this product, potentially paving the way for further market expansion. We’ll have to wait and see how this plays out in the future, but for now we see minimal change in pricing, with bids for milling quality quoted around $4.50-$4.75/bu picked up on the farm. Feed oats still show strong values as well, hovering around $4.00-$4.25/bu FOB for 40+ lbs. New crop milling values are now quoted sub $5, but firm sales targets at the $5/bu FOB mark may be a strategic move.
The soybean market is facing pressure due to concerns about future US soybean export projections. Stronger USD and a weakened Chinese economy contribute to these headwinds. Lackluster Chinese domestic pork demand, linked to poor economic conditions and a property sector collapse, exacerbates the situation. Somewhat offsetting this, is the news of a dwindling Brazilian soybean production number. Bids are currently in the range of $15.00/bu FOB, dependent on the farm’s location. Dry bean bids are receiving support from Mexican and potentially South American demand due to lower production, particularly impacting black and pinto bean prices. New crop dry bean programs are available for black beans at 51¢/lb FOB farm, with bids for other classes of beans also on the table. Feed quality fabas continue to find support from pet food values, with local bids for export-quality #2 fabas ranging from $11.50-$12.00/bu FOB farm and feed quality values near $10.00-$11.00/bu FOB, depending on the location.
Canada maintains a robust pace of wheat exports, reaching 9.4 MMT, a 9% increase from the same period last year. The recent USDA report had a mainly bearish outlook for wheat, with some bullish news about reduced winter wheat seeded acres, down by 6% from the previous year. Local bids for delivered plant in Saskatoon indicate values at approximately $8.55-$8.80/bu for CPSR, $9.00-$9.20/bu for CWRS, and $8.20/bu for both CWSWS and CWRW. These values are month-dependent, with spring and summer months appearing as the preferred shipping windows. Additional opportunities for CWSWS are presented at $7.50-$8.00/bu FOB farm, depending on the location, aligning with most feed wheat bids. In the durum market, recent tenders from Algeria and Tunisia suggest Canadian durum’s participation in the Algeria tender, alongside Mexico and Australia. Durum bids range from $12.00/bu FOB farm (April-June) in southeast Saskatchewan to $13.00/bu delivered (May-June) in southwest Saskatchewan. An essential consideration is that other durum market players like Mexico will have new crop durum ready for export in May/June. New crop values remain unchanged at roughly $11.00/bu delivered SK plant.
Green lentil markets continue to exhibit strength, with old crop large greens trading at 74-75 cents delivered plant and in some cases FOB farm. Movement is being extended into spring, but this still provides an attractive option compared to many other grain markets today. Small green lentils trade at 72-73 cents FOB farm this week with buyers showing strong demand. New crop values show variability, with some buyers who started purchasing early on pulling bids lower, and others who delayed price announcements until after the crop show willing to pay slightly higher. The small green lentil market actively seeks fall coverage, with bids currently in the 48-50c FOB farm range, including AOG. This provides an excellent starting point with little risk for growers, and it is strongly recommended to take the first 10bpa off the table. Both small and large green lentil acres are expected to increase, contingent on seed availability, making this market interesting to watch over the next 12-18 months. Red lentils continue to maintain a steady market at 35-37 cents FOB farm, with limited information available for new crop pricing, but indications continue to float around 30 cents/lb with an AOG. The market appears poised to sustain these levels, as current supply seems sufficient to meet demand.
The mustard market continues to face challenges in terms of pricing and is currently experiencing weakness compared to recent weeks. New crop values particularly are softening, though spot bids have also seen some pull back. Due to the fluctuating nature of bids, it is advisable to discuss available options with your merchant to navigate this volatile market. One relatively brighter aspect is seen in yellow mustard, where spot bids maintain some stability in the low to mid 70s, with movement extending into the spring. Brown and oriental mustard is situated in the low 40-cent range, with similar shipping windows. It is important to note that low grade oriental demand (#3/#4 spec) is virtually non-existent, though we encourage growers to throw up firm targets. New crop bookings are gradually underway, and for pricing/shipping options, please contact your merchant. The standard Act of God clause for 10 bu/acre applies, but even bookings as low as 5 bu/ac are being considered and may even warrant a premium, as this will reduce buyer risk exposure. Inquiries about seed are encouraged, as we offer all varieties, including free delivery to the farm and various treatment options.
Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.