The pea market experienced minimal change over the course of the week. Green peas continue to command a premium over yellow peas, prompting some farmers to consider switching yellow acres into greens for the 2024/25 season. Spot yellow peas are currently bid in the ballpark of $12.00-$12.50/bu FOB farm, while new crop bids are slow to come to the table with only a few indications around $9.00/bu. On the other hand, green peas are valued at $17.00-18.00/bu FOB, with additional pricing options available for higher bleached product. Some interest has been shown for new crop green peas at $14.00/bu on farm with act of God. Maple peas remain in demand, with current prices at $25-26/bu FOB with new crop indicated around $16.00/bu, though higher targets have triggered. The possible extension of India’s zero tariff in March could influence pea markets positively, but as of now, bids peas remain stable. Limited pea seed supplies are still available, so consult with your merchant regarding preferred varieties.
Chickpeas remain slow to trade despite some stronger bid indications this week. Old crop values hover around 54-57 cents picked up, with most buyers seeking a maximum of 10% 7mms and a minimum of 20% 9mms. The widespread in value is attributed to different sizing, so having your specs on hand and engaging in discussion with your merchant is crucial to obtain the best possible on farm bid. New crop values are currently posted at 45 cents with an act of God, although trading activity has been subdued at these levels. Consider making offers at slightly higher values for both old and new crop, if necessary, as current export pace may suggest tightening supplies as the year progresses. Seed supplies for chickpeas are still available; engage with your merchant to discuss pricing and variety options.
The flax market has maintained its sideways trajectory for another week, with buyers showing limited interest. There are small opportunities for brown flax sales at $16.00/bu delivered plant, which translates to a familiar $15-$15.50/bu FOB farm range for most producers. For those with yellow flax in storage, demand has been slow, but it’s advised to inform your Rayglen merchant about any inventory in case sales opportunities arise. Given that the US has been the only major purchaser of Canadian flax lately, we anticipate subdued demand heading into spring. If we can begin to compete with overseas pricing, we may see increased demand and movement into European markets before the summer months, but generally the Canadian grower doesn’t seem interested in moving volume at lower values. An anticipated acreage reduction for 2024, combined with tighter supplies in storage, could provide some upside for Canadian flax as we move into 2024/25.
Canaryseed markets have remained stable and virtually unchanged in terms of pricing over the past few weeks. Old crop is still indicated around $0.40/lb FOB farm, while new crop values sit between $0.34 – $0.35/lb FOB farm, including an act of God. A slight, but noticeable difference from previous weeks is that a few more sellers seem to be taking advantage of current opportunities to secure contracts, particularly for new crop, locking in the first 10 bushels to the acre. This makes practical sense given the historically high value and availability of fall shipping. Overall, canaryseed buyers seem to continue to hold a bearish sentiment and suggest that as more tonnage is purchased, prices are likely to falter. If these numbers align closely with your sales targets and you are on the fence, we highly recommend considering taking action to avoid missing out.
Canola markets have shown a positive shift this week, experiencing a welcomed increase in futures prices, a development that we’ve been waiting to see for some time. Despite a minor dip today, March futures are currently at $635/MT at time of writing, marking a $10/MT increase from the previous week. The market exhibits some carry, with May and July futures at $639/MT and $643/MT, respectively. Across the prairies, there hasn’t been a significant change, and a considerable portion of canola demand still stems from local crush. Looking at new crop prospects, November futures have seen a modest uptick at $640/MT, though there appears to be limited grower selling taking place just yet.
Barley prices have largely maintained a sideways trajectory over the past week, with bids hovering around the $5-$5.50/bu range FOB farm in most regions, occasionally flirting with lower figures. While a cold weather snap initially provided some support to prices, unseasonably warm weather may present additional challenges. Barley typically experiences an upward trend through the year, with peak prices often observed around June. However, this year does not seem to follow that pattern. The best prices so far were during the “off the combine” timelines, and today, we are just a dollar or so away from competing with those numbers. Fall prices for barley are on par with today’s values, making barley a middle-of-the-road crop for returns, not strongly influencing additional acres. Buyers are actively considering posted offers, so if you’re looking to maximize returns, consider discussing and posting a target with us to capture any premium opportunities.
The oat market maintains a sideways trend with minimal change in both market conditions and forecasts. Producers are giving oats a second look for the upcoming year, considering the less favourable prices for other cereal crops, but unfortunately, buyer interest in new crop milling quality oats has been subdued. With no current production programs on the table, growers may want to consider submitting firm offers as a strategic approach to secure new crop contracts. Old crop milling oat bids remain steady, ranging from $4.50 to $4.80/bu FOB farm contingent on location. On the feed side, pricing continues to hover around $4.00 – $4.25/bu for pickup on the farm, with purchasers targeting oats over 40lbs.
Mustard prices appear to show some stability this week after undergoing a significant revaluation over the past 2-3 months. The hope is for reduced pressure on prices moving forward, though this remains to be confirmed. Given the market’s volatility, it is highly recommended to contact us, as spot bids can vary widely from day to day among different buyers. Yellow mustard is certainly performing the best of the three varieties with spot bids in the low $0.70/lb range, while brown and oriental mustard remain in the low 40-cent range. New crop bookings are more active for yellow mustard as well, with slower progress on oriental and brown. The standard Act of God clause for 10 bu/acre applies, but even bookings as low as 5 bu/ac are being considered and even encouraged, potentially warranting a premium as it reduces the buyers’ risk exposure. Seed for all varieties is still available with treatment options and free delivery to the farm in totes or bags – call for details!
Soybean futures have seen a notable recovery initiated late last week, supported by speculator interest and short covering. The prevailing narrative centers around South American soybeans, where Brazil faces production challenges, and Argentina is expected to rebound from last year’s dismal production figures. Additional Chinese export business announcements could benefit domestic markets. Bids range from $15.00-$15.50/bu, depending on the farm location. Dry bean bids are receiving support from Mexican and potentially South American demand, leading to increased black and pinto prices. New crop dry bean programs are available, specifically black beans at 51¢/lb FOB farm, with bids for other bean classes also accessible. Feed quality fabas continue to find support from pet food values, with local bids ranging from $11.50-$12.00/bu for export quality #2 fabas and $10.00-$11.00/bu for feed quality, depending on the farm location.
In recent lentil highlights, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada’s report, “Canada: Outlook for Principal Field Crops,” sheds light on the 2023-24 crop year and offers a preview for 2024-25. August to November exports were down by 17% from the previous year, and Canadian exports are expected to decline for 2023-24 due to smaller available supply. Despite the export decrease, the carry-out is anticipated to be lower by year-end. The forecast for 2024-25 includes an 8% increase in acres, higher stocks, and a decline in prices. In the large green lentil market, old crop is trading at 75 cents per pound FOB farm, while new crop is hitting the books at 55 cents FOB farm with an Act of God (AOG). SGL old crop bids sit as high as 75 cents as well, though 72-73 cents per pound is more common. New crop SGL’s consistently trade at 50 cents FOB farm with AOG. Red lentils remain stable, with old crop still quoted between 35-36 cents on farm and new crop indicated at 30-31 cents with AOG, in light trade and facing pressure from external markets.
In the global wheat market, concerns in the Red Sea are compelling ships to reroute around South Africa rather than through the traditional Suez Canal. Reports indicate that 8% of December wheat shipments, primarily from the EU and the Black Sea, opted for this alternative route. In the first half of January, the share of rerouted cargos surged to over 40%. Main concerns include increased freight costs and slowed shipping, particularly from countries like Ukraine. Locally, milling quality CWRS is bid at $9.20-9.40/bu delivered to Saskatchewan plants, while CPSR bids sit lower at $8.75-8.80/bu for April-June movement. CWRS indications into southern Alberta show $9.00/bu and milling quality soft white recently traded at $8.50/bu delivered for summer shipping. Feed wheat bids are indicated at $7.50/bu FOB farm in Saskatchewan. Examining durum, Canadian origin faces competition in recent tenders, with some European Union countries reportedly re-exporting cheap durum from Turkey. Old crop durum prices vary, with multiple Saskatchewan plants at $12.00-13.00/bu delivered. For growers holding into later summer, one buyer offers an opportunity on durum for July-September shipping at $12.50-12.80/bu FOB farm meeting a #1 US spec, while new crop bids remain unchanged at $10.50-11.00/bu delivered to Saskatchewan plants.
Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.