After a week of ups and downs, the canola market has settled, now trading sideways this week. Some profit taking has been putting pressure on, but strength in crude oil has been giving support to vegetable oil prices and levelled the playing field. When it comes down to it, prices need to stay high to limit exports and ensure we have enough canola to crush domestically. March futures currently sit at $995/MT, which is exactly where we were at this time last week. Some buyers have started trading off the May futures, which is at $990/MT. Looking to new crop, November futures have continued to show strength and are at $836/MT. This represents a large increase from the $800/MT we were seeing last week.
Flax prices went down again this week, with bids stretching to $36-$37.00/bu picked up. More signals that the highs on flax prices from a couple months ago are past their prime. The average bids in the US have started to decline and that is where most of the strength in Canadian prices was coming from. If the Russian flax production estimate is close to accurate, then global supplies aren’t that tight. New crop flax prices continue to hold in the $24-$25/bu range picked up with an act of God. With a year of historically higher spot prices, new crop is also historically high, and a serious look needs to be taken at locking some acres up at these values.
Despite the lowest predicted carry since 2003, the canary markets are unseasonably quiet. Historically there would be a rally this time of year but that does not seem to be the case as Argentina continues to export to Brazil. Current crop values range from $0.44-$0.47/lb FOB with freight sensitivity. This has not been contracting on the regular, but the feeling is this is due to lack of supply vs lack of interest. New crop bids are $0.35-$0.36/lb FOB farm for Nov.-Dec. and generating very little interest. The feel of the market is that despite a potential acreage increase for the coming season, demand and values will maintain strong tone.
Chickpea markets have experienced over $0.10/lb drop in the last couple weeks, but in the grand scheme of things, they still hold decent value. There was a spark of a rumored tender in the market, but that has yet to come to fruition. Old crop #2 Kabuli bids are around $0.43/lb FOB farm, and it is believed there is still quite a bit on farm. Sample grade chickpeas are valued at $0.30/lb and new crop values are indicated at $0.30/lb FOB farm with and AOG. There seems to be a bit of buyer hesitation to own any large parcel of chickpeas right now, but buying interest is steadily present.
The pea market had been sideways for quite some time and just in the last 2 weeks we have seen the values take a correction and start to pull back. US demand that was holding up yellow peas bids has been filled and prices have softened. Old crop yellow peas are currently at $17/bu picked up, but freight and location sensitive. Green pea pricing had a sharper fall this week, from $15.50/bu down to $14/bu, as there appears very little overseas demand. Maple peas pulled back slightly, but $17 – 17.50/bu is still available depending on variety and location. What has remained strong in the pea market is new crop pricing. We have a seen $13/bu picked up with act of God trade on a few acres of yellows this week, while green peas have had gained some interest at $12/bu picked up.
Demand and pricing both softened in the past 2 weeks; however, oat pricing is still at historically favorable levels. Old crop pricing based on a #2 quality is at $9/bu depending on location with movement getting pushed out into spring. New crop values are also at $6/bu picked up for a September – December shipment and possibly higher for growers willing to hold onto product until 2023. If you still have feed quality oats in your bin, depending on weight and reason for downgrade, $6/bu has traded into the feed market. Please have specs on hand so we can effectively market your product!
Talks around barley remain quiet on the old crop side of things, but the new crop values that are being thrown around are attention seekers. Old crop feed barley sits in a widespread range with levels of $7.50 up to $8.50/bu being quoted, all depending on timeframe and location. Spot malt barley still does not seem to be a topic of discussion, but rumors of $8.00/bu FOB farm new crop with an AOG are floating around. New crop feed barley is showing some historically big numbers and ranging anywhere from $6.00 – $6.50/bu on farm, depending on location. This however does not come with an AOG, so there is some inherent risk, but locking in 5% – 10% of your expected production should leave you pretty safe. Although markets seem hard to catch as there is sporadic highs and lows daily, your best bet is to call in and show us what you have. Let us do the work for you and try to get your top dollar. Although the number on old crop seems lower and not much of a selling point for growers, at the end of the day these are still very strong values to lock in some product.
Red lentil markets are feeling all sorts of pressure as of late. Markets are sliding due to increased domestic farm sales, decreasing demand for high priced Canadian lentils when other countries are willing to sell for cheaper and Australia’s logistical system freeing up. New crop reds are also under pressure as early speculation is suggesting an increase in acres, larger carry out than first estimated and reports of a good start to the Indian crop. Moisture is still a concern for most of the lentil growing areas in Canada, but at this point it is too early for it to affect the market. Farmers are showing some interest in signing up new crop reds, but these programs are filling fast as the tonnages and acres are limited. At this point in time there is more information pointing to a weaker red lentil market than a stronger one. Due to the prices changing so quickly this week it best to call to discuss bids on your farm.
The wheat market rollercoaster continues on this week as what started off good has soured, dropping some bids roughly $0.25 – 0.30/bu. Delivered in bids on a 13.5 pro #1 sit at roughly $11.70 to just under $12/bu with the later for pushed out movement. HRW crops in the US continue to run on the dryer side pushing crop conditions down, which you would think would show some price support, but to no avail, so far. Then there is the geo-political issue with Russia and Ukraine that could impact wheat prices moving forward. Feed pricing has also taken it in the teeth as delivered in bids into feedlot alley seem to be hovering around $410/MT. Sitting outside of this strike zone doesn’t seem as friendly with SE Sask right around $10/bu as the going rate. Looking for the upside? Look no further than new crop durum. With a #3OB, trades have triggered in SE Sask around $13/bu but if you have an offer, you may be able to snag a little bit better. Old crop pricing seems to be holding on around $19.50/bu in the South half of the province give or take a quarter.
Private analysts expect the combined South American (Brazil, Argentina, Paraguay, and Uruguay) soybean output to be a 4-yr low of 186.3 MMT. This spurred double digit gains on the Chicago futures. Local bids are location dependent and range from $14.50 -$15.50/bu FOB farm. Dry bean bids remain buoyant predicated on the smaller 2021 crops in Canada and the US. Canadian bids are feeling downward pressure from recent gains in the Canadian dollar. Dry bean market needs to see an uptick in demand for these production decreases to create any upward price movement. Faba beans are currently largely driven by domestic feed pulse prices. Feed faba bids are in that $13/bu FOB farm range and when #2 demand periodically occurs, it is often near $15/bu FOB farm.
Mustard markets remain level this week. This is the second week in which we have seen prices stabilize. New crop contracting continues at a good pace, which is not surprising with levels being so strong. New crop brown and oriental are trading in that 70-75 cent/lb range with yellow at 75 to possibly 77 cents/lb. New crop mustard contracts of course include an act of God & are picked up on farm. Spot prices remain solid, with yellow and brown around $1.50 -$1.75/lb FOB and all varieties of oriental quoted at $1.00/lb or better. Those with product in the bin may want to consider taking advantage of these values while they’re still available as the levelling of prices may suggest the market is topping out. This is yet to be seen so we will need to monitor prices and demand from buyers. We have seed remaining, so if you’re in need, we can supply all types of certified, treated, or untreated and delivered to your yard.
Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.