Canola has not experienced the “new year, new me” transformation, rather sticking with the downward trend observed over the past months. External market pressure, coupled with a recent weakening of the Canadian dollar have left canola stagnant without any foreseeable upward movement in prices. The current indication of around $13.75/bu FOB farm for Southeast SK canola appears to be the upper limit in recent discussions, and prospects for a price increase seem unlikely in the near future. However, there is a notable presence of strong bids for off-spec canola, and given the weather fluctuations, regular bin checks make sense at this time of year. If the current trajectory persists, there may be a shift of some 2024 new crop acres to alternative crops. Still, with anticipated on-farm supply remaining high, the impact on prices might be limited. Posting a firm offer could potentially capture small market opportunities, so it is advisable to consider doing so if you have a specific sell price in mind.

The feed barley market faced challenges during the Christmas season, with bids experiencing a decline into the new year. Prices range from $5.25/bu FOB farm in Southeast Saskatchewan to $5.50-$5.60/bu FOB farm in west-central Saskatchewan. An additional ten cents may be obtained but is primarily a carry incentive for those willing to hold onto the barley until April-June for shipping. Although new crop pricing is available, it has not garnered much attention from growers at this point. For a price quote on the upcoming crop year, growers are encouraged to reach out to their merchant. The overall sentiment for feed barley remains bearish, as feedlots seem comfortable with their current inventory positions.

Canaryseed prices have maintained a sideways trajectory as we begin the new year. Crop in storage is fetching 41 cents/lb picked up, while new crop prices continue to linger around 34 cents/lb with an Act of God clause. Despite a decline in value since the 2021/22 drought, bids remain historically high. Some analysts predict that planted acres in 2024 may see a similar or slightly higher trend, presumably derived from lackluster performances in other cereal markets. The resilient nature of canaryseed across various soil zones leaves room for potential changes to the outlook for the upcoming crop, so we will watch that closely. While shipments have been slow this crop year, shifts in market demand could offer more opportunity as 2024 progresses. If export markets remain limited, prices are likely to remain stable into 2024/25.

The mustard market enters the new year with a seemingly stable outlook, and it’s anticipated that the softer pricing observed recently will be the norm for 2024. The recommended marketing strategy remains the same: due to the fluctuating nature of spot bids, it is advisable to discuss available options with your merchant to navigate pricing dynamics. Yellow mustard spot bids remain steady between 75-78 cents per pound, with movement extending into March to capture premium bids. Brown mustard is situated in the 50-cent range, with movement similarly extending into the spring. Oriental mustard also maintains prices in the 50-cent range, with prompt movement options posing a challenge. Despite not all buyers having released new crop programs, new crop mustard bookings are underway. Reach out to explore various movement windows and pricing options. The standard Act of God clause for 10 bu/acre applies, but even as little as 5 bu/ac is likely acceptable to secure bookings. For those with seed inquiries, we offer all varieties including free delivery to the farm and various treatment options.

The oat market remains quiet across all fronts with minimal pricing changes. Despite fewer acres planted in the last harvest, overall product yields were favourable. Potential intrigue may arise as we converge with new crop creating a wait-and-see scenario. The supply and demand implications suggest a potential tightening, but much depends on the coverage buyers currently hold and the farmers’ willingness to sell. Active milling bids for old crop oats persist around $4.50 – $5.00/bu, picked up on the farm. As barley and wheat bids face challenges, there’s a possibility of more acres shifting towards oats in the upcoming year. However, with planting and substantial moisture still some time away, it will be something we continue to monitor. In the feed oats sector, buyer interest is subdued, resulting in minimal trade. Bids fluctuate around $4.00/bu, picked up on the farm, with buyers focusing on product that is 40+ pounds. If you have lighter oats, please reach out to discuss potential options.

The soybean market is affected by forecasts of beneficial rains in South America, dampening market sentiment. Despite reductions, Brazil is expected to produce adequate supplies, while neighbouring South American countries are also projected to generate decent soybean production levels. Domestically, US monthly crush rates continue to set records. Local bids range from $12.50 to $13.00/bu, FOB farm, depending on the location. Dry bean bids receive support from Mexican and potentially South American demand due to lower production, particularly boosting black and pinto bean prices. Feed-quality fabas continue to find support from pet food values, with local bids for export-quality #2 faba beans ranging from $11.50 to $12.00/bu, FOB farm. Feed-quality values are approximately $9.00 to $10.00/bu, FOB farm, contingent on the location.

The wheat market maintained a subdued stance over the holiday break, with a brief surge in activity following an incident involving a bulk carrier in the Black Sea. However, such events typically result in short-lived market reactions. Presently, wheat bids in Saskatchewan are around $8.60-8.70/bu for CPSR and $8.65-8.80/bu for CWRS. Feed wheat is indicated between $7.50-8.00/bu, and interested parties are encouraged to contact their merchants for firm bids specific to their area. New crop bids on wheat are currently limited, but one buyer is showing interest in soft white wheat at $8.00/bu, freight dependent, in southern Alberta. The CGC’s Week 20 report before Christmas revealed that 1 million MT of durum had been shipped, down 37% from the 2022 pace. Durum is currently bid at $12.50/bu delivered to the Saskatchewan plant for January through March movement. A few new crop durum bids are posted, one at $11.00/bu delivered in Saskatchewan and another at $11.00/bu FOB farm in the southeast corner of Saskatchewan, with price discounts applicable to lower grades.

Lentil markets have maintained the stability seen well before the Christmas break. Old crop large greens remain at the 72-74 cents per pound mark, small greens at the 70-cent level, and red lentils quoted around 36 cents FOB farm, or 38 cents delivered. Spot bids are contingent on product location and shipping window. New crop pricing for large green lentils is available in the 50-cent range, with small greens showing only a slight decrease quoted around 47-cents, while reds show bids around 30 cents this week, though few buyers are currently offering new crop red lentil bids. Production contracts include an Act of God (AOG) and are picked up on the farm. The price spread between red and green lentils is influenced by factors such as a decline in green lentil production in recent years and increased global competition in the red lentil markets. Canada’s market share in India has decreased from 80% in 2020 to under 50%, with other countries like Australia, Russia, and Kazakhstan offering alternative options. Canada has also lost market share in Turkey to competing countries. Green lentils remain strong due to Canada and the US being the two major suppliers to the global lentil market. The potential seeded acreage report is eagerly awaited to assess increases in green lentil acres and potential decreases in red lentil acres. However, switching to greens from other varieties may pose challenges as sourcing seed has become challenging due to limited supply across the prairies.

The flax market continues to experience a subdued environment, with buyers showing limited interest in purchasing at this time. For old crop, the market is quoted at $15.50 for Jan-Mar movement, accompanied by a 50-75 cent carry for deliveries further out. The majority of China’s flax supply is still sourced from the Black Sea region, impacting Canadian exports. While it is reported Europe is making small purchases from Canada to maintain relationships, concerns about Canadian quality are evident. The market is expected to remain sluggish until more interest emerges from trading partners. Buyers have yet to offer any substantial new crop programs though we may see more options available at the Crop Production Show next week. Overall, buyers appear content to let the product come to them rather than chasing it.

Chickpea markets maintain a flat tone as the new year begins, a trend unchanged for several weeks. With the Crop Production Show approaching, growers should focus on assessing any new crop prices to aid in the decision-making process for upcoming seeding intentions. Old crop values persist around $0.50/lb FOB farm, with some buyers expressing interest at $0.54/lb delivered for #2 quality with larger seed size. Product with larger sizes continue to hold value, so getting grades and sizing done on your samples despite the additional time and cost is recommended. New crop bids are holding steady at around $0.45/lb FOB farm, accompanied by an Act of God (AOG) on up to 10 bushels per acre. Recently, there has been limited new crop activity, and buyers are not aggressively pushing their values to secure bookings, with the sentiment being that it will come in due time. Feed and sample grade markets remain unchanged, with bids at $0.36/lb FOB farm. For those seeking seed or interested in discussing new and old crop opportunities, feel free to reach out.

The pea market is a conundrum at present. Green pea prices have surged to extraordinary levels, reaching up to $20/bu delivered to the plant in specific areas, provided a certain amount of tonnage is sold. Maple pea bids consistently show buyer interest at $25/bu FOB farm across most areas of the province, a level that has been sustained for so long in such a niche market, it’s really unheard of. In contrast, yellow peas present a more challenging scenario in terms of determining their market value. The announcement of India returning as a buyer, following the lift of tariffs, resulted in a rapid increase in bids to the mid-teens. However, these numbers have now receded, with buyers exhibiting a wide range in value from $10.50/bu up to $13.50/bu delivered plant for spring deliveries of higher-quality, very dry product. Navigating the yellow pea market requires careful consideration, and it’s crucial to explore the various options before finalizing a sale. This is where consulting with a reputable broker is particularly beneficial, please reach out before making sales.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.