As canaryseed markets transition into February, minimal changes are observed. Old crop values continue to hover around the $0.40/lb FOB farm range, while new crop maintains a position at $0.35/lb FOB farm, including an Act of God. Buyers are flexible when it comes to how many bushels per acre are signed under the AOG, but we typically see contracts range from 10 to 15bpa. With purchases of both old and new crop slow, interest diminishes further in targets shown over and above current levels. This indicates buyers are in a comfortable position and unwilling to “stretch” to secure product. Anticipated acres are reported to be on par with the last 5 years, or slightly higher, making early commitment a sensible strategy to avoid potential delivery delays at harvest.

Little has changed in pea markets over recent weeks. Yellow peas are steady at $12 – $12.50/bu picked up, with new crop values around $9/bu, which hasn’t attracted any significant acreage. Green peas, basis max 3% bleach, are priced at approximately $17.50 – $18/bu delivered plant, while new crop has triggered at $15/bu on firm target. That said, posted bids hover closer to the $13-14/bu range. Maple peas maintain strength at $25-26/bu FOB farm for old crop with new crop indications still sitting around $16/bu FOB (both variety dependent). Targets on new crop maples closer to $18/bu have traded throughout the year, so we encourage growers to show a firm offer. On the international front, an extension of India’s zero-import tariff remains uncertain, but the decrease in desi chickpea planting suggests a potential need for more yellow peas. This could shed positive light on the extension of the import tariff.

Flax inventories in Canada are currently in a comfortable position, attributed to smaller-than-average export volumes, potentially limiting price rallies unless ending stocks see a significant reduction. Brown flax prices have been holding around the $15.00/bu FOB range, while new crop indications are at $14.50/bu picked up with an Act of God. Anticipation of exports to Europe once the seaway opens provides a potential avenue to reduce elevator stocks. Quality issues reported in Kazakhstan, stemming from a late, wet harvest, have led to stocks nearly 40% lower than the previous year. However, concerns persist about the substantial stocks in China, and prices heading into the US remain flat. Price support for Canadian flax may take time to develop, making the current period opportune to clear out bins before harvest.

Chickpea exports for the 2023/24 season in Canada have been strong, despite seemingly slow sales, possibly attributed to a larger-than-expected carryover from the previous year. Both Canada and the US anticipate an increase in acres for the coming year, and favorable weather conditions could significantly impact market values. The US notes potentially tight supply again next year even with stronger production numbers as they’ve experienced the lowest carry since 2017. Globally, India has shown increased imports and reduced exports compared to a traditional year. Dry weather conditions reported in Mexico, though still in the seeding stage, add uncertainty. Argentina’s exports have been sluggish, and production numbers are pending, but with average yields, production would be up almost 100% from the previous year. Canadian chickpea values maintain stability for another week; for detailed information on both old and new crop, as well as seed availability, give us a call!

Oats prices continue their persistent sideways trend, with no sign of change seen at this point. Feed oats are fetching $4 to $4.25/bu picked up on the farm, a historically decent number for feed quality. However, buyers are seeking heavier product at this price, and those with lighter oats might face slightly lower bids. For those holding #2 quality oats, prices could reach close to $5/bu in certain freight-friendly areas, but some locations may settle out around $4.75/bu due to additional logistics costs. While a few sellers are targeting new crop oats sales at $5/bu at the yard, it remains a bit ambitious for most locations, with actual pricing likely in the mid-4s today for those looking to secure contracts.

Green lentil markets continue to show robust demand and price strength. Over the past week, particular focus has been put on large green lentils, which experienced a heavy week of trading, mainly on new crop acres. Production contracts for 2024/25 are hitting the book at the 55-56 cent/lb level including an Act of God (AOG), though some offers triggered as high as 58 cents. Old crop remains a bright spot in all commodity markets as well, with indications and trades taking place at or near 75 cents/lb FOB farm, contingent on location. Small green lentils weren’t left out of the party and saw an increase in old crop pricing, although new crop prices were generally flat to slightly lower. Medium greens remained relatively stable for both old and new pricing, closely following the trend of LGL lentils. If producing any type of green lentil this coming season, it is highly suggested to secure production contracts at these historically high levels. Seed availability is now limited, but please contact our office if needed and we’ll do our best to track some down. Reds experienced a quieter week, with old crop prices slipping a bit for prompt shipping while new crop pricing and bookings remaining relatively subdued. Buyers noted satisfaction with the current supply and demand situation in the red lentil market.

Early-week developments in the wheat market centered around Turkey’s tender to sell 150,000 MT of durum for February/March shipping. The Turkish government, having exported 1.3 million MT to date and owning an additional 800,000 MT, could potentially increase exports. This unexpected move disrupts Canadian exports, narrowing the window of opportunity for Canadian durum, especially with new crop arrivals from other origins expected in May. In response to this news, buyers have adjusted prices, leading to a drop of $0.50-$1.00/bu, now at $12.00/bu delivered to the Saskatchewan plant. New crop durum remains in the range of $10.50-$11.00/bu delivered. Additional wheat news involves China’s announcement of accepting wheat imports from Argentina, which, being $40/mt cheaper than U.S. offerings, may divert Chinese demand away from the U.S. Other wheat bids delivered to Saskatchewan include $8.95-$9.10/bu for CWRS and $8.40-$8.55/bu for CPS. Feed wheat has slightly pulled back, with indications around $7.00/bu FOB farm.

Soybean futures are giving up some ground today after yesterday’s bounce. Market factors remain somewhat static, with concerns over lagging Chinese buying pace and harvest pressure from Brazil. Bids are in the range of $15.00-$15.50/bu FOB farm location dependent. Dry bean bids are seeing support from Mexican and potentially South American demand due to lower production. This has propped up black and pinto prices as of late. New crop dry bean programs are available for black beans at 51¢/lb FOB farm for irrigated acres, with bids available for other classes of beans as well. Feed quality fabas continue to be supported by pet food values. Local bids for export quality #2 faba sit in the range of $11.50-$12.00/bu FOB farm and feed quality values are near $10.00-$11.00/bu FOB farm, location dependent.

Canola futures have dealt farmers a challenging week, with persistent large short positions contributing to a continued slide in prices. March futures now sit at $606.50/MT, marking a $29/MT decrease from the previous week. This decline extends to new crop values, as November futures have slipped from $640/MT last week to the current $619/MT. The implications for upcoming seeding decisions are uncertain, as the anticipated decrease in canola acres may be worsened by the market’s recent downturn. Monitoring small increases in futures and favorable basis levels is advised, with crushers presenting a more reliable option due to sustained strong crush margins, encouraging them to maximize capacity.

Barley pricing is scraping the “bottom of the bin”, with bids dropping below $5.00/bu for Feb-Mar movement in some locations. Those seeking prompt sales for bill payments should brace for challenging conditions, as prices will likely reflect this tough market. However, if immediate movement isn’t a priority and storage is available, there might be an opportunity to secure a modest premium, around $0.25-$0.50/bu, for Apr-May delivery, possibly extending into June, all contingent on the farm location. Feedlot alley proximity typically favors better pricing as well, so those in Alberta and Western SK could see some better options, despite having to deal with a shipping window when many are in the field. The overall outlook for this market is unoptimistic as corn maintains its dominance in feedlots and warmer weather eases feeders’ expenditure on feed. The malt market remains subdued, with minimal interest on both the old and new crop buy side.

Ahead of next week’s StatsCan mustard stocks report, prices appear to be relatively stable following the significant pullback seen over previous weeks. Among mustard varieties, brown mustard has faced the most substantial impact, with oriental not far off and yellow mustard remaining the strongest by far. Industry consensus suggests that yellow mustard supplies are notably tighter compared to brown and oriental varieties, though there are uncertainties over supply numbers for those as well. Due to market volatility, it is strongly recommended to reach out for updated information, as spot bids can vary widely among different buyers on a day-to-day basis. Yellow mustard is attempting to maintain the $0.70/lb range, although many bids have dipped into the 60s. Brown and oriental mustard continue to hover in the low 40-cent range. New crop bookings are more active for yellow mustard around 60 cents/lb, while progress is slower for oriental and brown varieties, both generally quoted in the 40-42 cent/lb range. The standard Act of God clause for 10 bu/acre applies, but even bookings as low as 5 bu/ac are being considered and encouraged, potentially attracting a premium as it mitigates the buyer’s risk exposure. Seed for all varieties is still available with treatment options and free delivery to the farm in totes or bags—details can be obtained from your merchant!

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.