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Rayglen Market Comments – July 10, 2019

Oat prices are still holding sideways with old crop showing up to $4.10/bu delivered. This comes even with the increase of seeded acres, primarily in Saskatchewan, as low supplies of oats have resulted in higher prices as of late. Like the Saskatchewan crop, Alberta oat crop conditions are rated higher than they were even just two weeks ago. The latest provincial report pegged the oat crop condition at 74% good-excellent, just behind barley. New crop prices remain in the $3.35-$3.60/bu range depending on delivery time. There is still some movement on feed oats if you have any left in the bins. For those looking to move some product before harvest, we do have some prompt movement available.

Old crop lentil pricing has come to a bit of a stall. Previous highs, for the most part, have now fallen, bridging the gap between old and new crop values. Moisture has been received in most areas relieving some pressure. Aside from a few outliers, reports coming through Rayglen show the majority of the pulses holding up through the lack of early moisture and looking quite well at this time. Due to this, on farm selling has been steady to make room in the bins for the 2019 crop. Currently, old crop prices are 21-22 cents FOB on #2 large greens, 18 cents on #1 small greens and 18-18.50 FOB on #2 red lentils. New crop prices are still sitting strong at 21 cents FOB on a #2 or better for large greens, 18 cents FOB on #1 small greens and #2 red lentils.

Barley prices have trickled off a bit from previous highs but are still sitting quite competitive. Feed barley values, in most cases, are trading above malting values. For barley in the bin, prices have been trading at $4.75 – $5.20/bu FOB getting stronger as to you head closer to Alberta. The opportunity to lock in an Act of God on new crop barley is still available, with pricing ranging from $4 – $4.50/bu FOB. There are movement options from October – December and January – February to suit your farm’s needs.

Chickpea markets are sideways to lower this week as there has been little news to report. Minimal producer selling has taken place to eat into on farm stocks so as we get closer to the new crop coming off, buyers are not feeling any pressure to pay up for chickpeas that are already in the bin. As for pricing, current spot bids are in the 23 cents/lb range FOB farm with pickup in the next month. New crop contracts continue to be available at 24 cents/lb FOB farm for a September-December movement and a full AOG. As always, if you have a target price in mind on both old or new crop be sure to give us a call and post it on our website.

According to StatsCan estimates, pea acreage for the 2019 crop year is pegged at 4.3 million acres; roughly a 20% increase over last year and if true, a new record. This entails a 35% increase in green peas, 17% more yellows and a large 43% bump in “others” classification. Acre wise, that’s 3.5 million yellow peas, around 630,000 green peas and approximately 170,000 of other classes of peas. Reading these estimates makes it a little easier to understand that bids are few and far between on both new and old crop peas of all varieties. If you’re able to find bids, yellow pea prices likely trade around $6.50/bu FOB. Green peas have been very tough to move this week and we suggest growers give firm targets – call to discuss value.  New crop bids are also thin with unsuccessful targets at $6.50/bu on yellows and $8.00/bu on greens. Maple peas have some life at $9.00/bu, both old and new crop.

Canaryseed is holding strong again this week with markets sitting at $0.24 Fob farm for July movement. With prices remaining stable as we get closer to new crop this would suggest that the buyers maybe concerned that supplies maybe tightening. The seeded acreage reported was reduced from earlier estimates back in April. Yield will likely be reduced as well due to weather. The wild card in this scenario is what is being reported in the bins, as there always seems to be more stored than stated.  Adding the three scenarios together should still put Canary in a good position to become bullish.

Not much has changed since last weeks report on wheat. $6.00/bu FOB farm seems to be the going rate for feed wheat, that is unless you are near the feed lots in Alberta, in which case you may garner in and around that $6.60/bu FOB farm. Old crop durum is trading around that $6.00 – $6.25/bu FOB farm with milling wheat pulling down $6.30 delivered to plant with a minimum 13.5 protein. Looking ahead to new crop, durum is $7.00/bu delivered to plant with no worthwhile bid on milling/#1 wheat. New crop feed wheat is fluttering around that $5.00/bu FOB farm for Sept – Dec movement. On a whole, with some of the issues out there globally, ending wheat stocks are projected to come down a bit, but… that is being overshadowed as global wheat stocks are up (17MMT) compared to last year. Time will tell how this one plays out.

There have not been any major swings to the canola market this week. We patiently await a resolution to political issues regarding China, but there is no clear end in sight. As for the crop, rain has done wonders for the struggling oil seed. It was only a few weeks ago crops were looking pretty sad, but for the most part everything has taken a turn for the better. There are definitely some areas that are still not looking good and will have some staging issues. The board today is still green for old crop but weakens for new crop. Prices for right now are between $8.85-9.10/bu FOB farm for movement through November.

Flax is holding steady again this week, with bids sitting around $14.25/bu delivered to plant on a #1 quality for old crop. New crop is bid at $12.25-$13.00/bu with an act of God. Contract grade (milling or #1 quality) and location will affect the bid. For the most part, it sounds like the rains came at the right time and crops are looking quite nice. With an estimated acreage increase of 9% in Canada, 50% in the US and general reports of decent looking crops all around, our recommendation is to sign 10bu/acre and hedge your bets. If values drop, you’ve got some product already locked in. If values increase, sell overage to increase your bottom line. Taking some risk off the table and still attaining an attractive number on the first 10bpa is a smart play in our opinion. Yellow flax is still at the same as last week with bids for both old and new crop at $14/bu FOB farm in select locations.

Ambiguity for Thursday’s USDA report encompasses both production and demand. The USDAs surprisingly low forecast on June 28th still has the trade perplexed and awaiting new numbers. Soybeans face lost acres and lower yields that could make for an interesting market. Local soybean bids are trading in the range of $9.75-$10.00/bu picked up on farm. Faba market is standing-pat right now with much of the old crop having found homes and new crop buyers assessing actual seeded acres and international demand prior to sticking their chin out. New crop #2 faba bean bids continue to hover near $7.50-$8.00/bu delivered. Dry bean bids have been static with the anticipation of a modest increase in North American seeded acres. Late seeding in the East could change the production picture and spur market activity.

The mustard market seems to be watching crop conditions this week and for the most part, staying steady. We have seen a slight bump in yellow mustard price recently though. Mustard conditions have perked up some due to recent rains, but the crop is behind and will obviously face its hurdles due to early drought. Right now, yields are uncertain as many crops are staged after the rain spurred secondary growth. Current spot bids are up to 36 cents/lb for yellow mustard. We have also seen the new crop price bump to 36 cents/lb for march movement with Act of God. The brown market is still at 30 cents as a picked up in the yard price on new and old. Oriental remains slow with new crop pricing available around 25 cents while old crop prices remain in the 23 to 24 cent/lb range. Call the office for different and possibly quick movement options.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees