Canary seed prices are really holding at some unreal values with bids popping up to 37 cents as a delivered to plant price which is about the highest price, or darn close to it, that anyone here can ever recall on canary. New crop contract is at 37 cents with an act of God covering drought provided that the buyer is informed of any difficulties in due fashion. A notable point for any act of God contract is that the responsibility is there to inform your contracting parties promptly when you feel that the crop will not produce your contracted tonnages, so don’t let that important job fall through the cracks. Finally, the bins seem to be cleaned out on old canary seed stocks, which is not something we have been able to say for a number of years, but the stocks seem to be tighter now. It’s yet to be seen what this crop will produce this year but obviously this drought is not really adding up to a bumper crop on anything and canary is no different.
The US reported an increase to the chickpea acres for the coming year but with the ongoing poor growing conditions in both US and Canada the yield is expected to offset the increase. Some statistics expect the Canadian crop to be under 100k MTS which is under half of what was produced last year. As of June 28th, the crop rating is 10% good to excellent, down from 77% two weeks prior. Global trade is relatively quiet today, but as actual numbers start to leak out with harvest, it is suspected that the market perks up with slight concern over where supply will come from. Chickpeas have been known to bounce back but the question now is are we passed that point?
Mustard prices have moved up again this week as the crop conditions continue to regress within Canada and Montana. With another week of heat and concerns with grasshoppers popping up, we can expect yields to be down this year. Carryover supplies were already considered tight and with crop ratings coming down, prices are likely to remain bullish on all varieties. Yellow mustard is trading at 52 cents FOB on both old and new crop. Brown mustard took a jump on old crop to 44 cents FOB and new crop remains at 42 cents. Oriental mustard is priced at 36 cents FOB for both old and new. Demand is likely to increase and outlook on pricing remains positive.
Flax prices continue to climb as crop conditions deteriorate and supply gets tighter. Buyers are still looking to purchase old crop at the $24.00 dollar range for July movement. New crop bids have perked up at $19.00-19.50 per bushel depending on movement window. Not only are the North American flax crops in bad shape but reports now are suggesting that Kazakhstan and Russian crops may also be in rough shape. Some major limiting factors in seeing the flax market push any higher than today’s crazy heights are the Chinese demand, and that the USA crush market continues to shrink. The overall outlook on flax will still remain positive but with current values obviously the upside provides some limitations on what more it could do.
The wheat market continues to be strong this week with most of the focus being pushed on the feed market side of things. Values range from $8.00 – $8.75/bu at the bin depending on the area. If you are searching for a bit higher value, we highly suggest putting in a target. New crop feed wheat also remains strong today with prices hitting around the $7.00 – $8.00/bu FOB farm. Milling wheat has also seen a bit of a rise this week with earlier movement ranging in that $10.20/bu for high protein (13.5%). Pushing into new crop, September delivery sits around $9.40 for a #1 CWRS, 13.5%, with that price trickling up as you push into later months for delivery. Although these prices do not come with an active act of God attached to them, locking in 5% – 10% of what you think you will produce would not be a bad idea to date. Preselling can give you a bit of money flow you can count on with some earlier movement.
Barley markets remain strong once again this week with all the push being into the feed market. There is not much talk surrounding malt prices but given the current price for feed, not many are exploring the option anyways. Old crop feed values are ranging in the $6.70 – $7.10/bu at the bin. Rightfully so as given the past few weeks, even months, with the price at those levels there is not much feed sitting in the bins. If someone had told you last fall that you could get $7.00 for your malt barley, let alone feed, you would have sold the whole lot. If you’re searching for a couple cents higher, product does seem to be moving on firm targets. New crop barley is hovering around the $6.00 – $6.50/bu at the bin price which is also a very strong number with earlier movement. Same scenario on new crop as old crop, so if you are searching for a bit more take-home price, call in and place out a firm offer. If it trades good, and if it doesn’t well at least you can say you tried.
Soybean futures are up on the week as the margin for error on this year’s US crop continues to be very small. While some soybean areas have received plenty of rain, there are significant areas such as North Dakota, which makes up 8% of national soybean acres, that continue to be in trouble. There is still buying interest in our markets these days, with firm targets appearing to be the best way to price out any soybeans left on farm. Reports out of Argentina are showing drought conditions have affected both yields and sizing of their dry bean crop. Meanwhile, Minnesota dry beans are entering into the flowering stage this week and there are concerns of drought in some key areas out there. Faba beans have stayed fairly quiet this week and look to be trading into feed markets around $8.50-$9/bu FOB farm.
Oats have been very quiet over the last while, but the brutal heat has been putting several crops in quite a bit of trouble. We have been hearing that a large chunk of the crop is in distress. So, the future, not just on oats, but all commodities are of concern to many producers. Quite a few buyers are covered for the rest of the crop year on old crop oats, but they continue to look for 2021 product on sales with movement into early 2022. New crop milling oats have been trading around $3.50-$4.00/bu FOB farm. Price is dependent on movement and time frame. We always remind growers that if you spray your oats with glyphosate, you are potentially taking away marketing options. Touch base with your grain merchant to see what pre harvest chemicals are best for use on your oats. If you have some feed oats, prices have been ranging between $2.50 to $3.25/bu FOB farm, also depending on bushel weight. Feed buyers like a nice heavy oat.
The green lentil market has shown a bit more interest this week. There is some interest in old crop large green lentils up to 38c/lb FOB, while new crop hovers around 36c/lb FOB. For those with small green lentils in the bins, showing an offer might get some attention this week. Red lentils are mostly sideways at 32c/lb picked up. There will be areas of the province where yields will be affected by drought this year, however, analysts figure that will be offset by the lack of disease pressure. There has been some caution on both the buyer and seller end in the trade of lentils lately. There are some constraints being taking into consideration such as the uncertainty of the lentil crops and extreme high prices on ocean freight. The latest news about stock limits in India has had no serious impacts so far but it is another consideration for importers even though stocks in India are low right now.
Green pea prices have gained a bit of traction this week with prices up to $10.00/bu. Yellow pea prices are also hanging around $10-$10.50/bu in some areas. With the low carry-in of supplies and the smaller seeded acres compared to last year, bids are likely to remain linear until harvest is well underway. There are some concerns with the smaller seeded pea acres in both Canada and the US, however it hasn’t generated a response from the market as buyers seem content with their coverage for now. This could change if we see the crop declining due to drought. Reports are coming in that there seems to be a mix of extremely poor pea crops and some good-looking crops. An additional factor to consider whether pea prices will rally is if and when China re-enters the market.
As new crop production concerns continue to mount, ICE canola futures respond by running up into the nosebleed section. Obviously, final production numbers won’t be known for certain until the harvest dust settles. However, that doesn’t tame the market from speculating. Not surprising the general theme in the trade is towards sliding production expectations. Most forecasts seem to be lining up confidently under 20 MMT, with a wide range on their wagers. One thing is certain though, new crop carryout inventory will be firmly under 1 MMT. Much of the price direction in canola will be dictated by global soybean and global vegetable oil markets. That said, given any run up in either of those markets and canola is poised to take any opportunity to follow. Cash delivered bids are bumping up against $21/bu delivered and new crop isn’t far behind.
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