Canaryseed markets are showing some life this week as a couple buyers push bids higher to try and secure both old and new crop. Spot canary is now quoted as high as $0.40/lb delivered plant, which should warrant a $0.38-$0.39/lb FOB bid pending location. Production contracts have seen a bit of life as well, with growers now being able to sign up acres at $0.36/lb FOB farm including an act of God. Those looking to push the market may want to consider throwing targets out now while demand for product is strong. We suspect the push to secure tonnage is in part due to uncertainty over crop conditions across the prairies, although some recent rains have blessed select areas. Keep an eye on this market as we move closer to harvest.

Believe it or not, barley markets see little to no change in pricing for another week – big shocker, we know! Although we continue to hear rumors of China and Australia settling trade disputes and corn being bought and pushed into Lethbridge (likely doesn’t land until November of 2023), lots of areas are faced with drought. All these, “what-if’s,” will surely have a trickledown effect on feed barley. If Chinese/Australian issues are settled, China will be able to buy cheaper product from the land down under. When cheaper corn shipments hit Lethbridge, it will likely weigh on barley bids as well, but there is a kicker, and a big one: many areas are once again experiencing drought and although seeded acres are up this year, it is hard to determine if that increase is going to be enough to make up for some less-than-ideal yields and overall production numbers. Only time will tell. Old crop feed is still triggering anywhere from $7.50 – $8.00/bu FOB farm and new crop is hitting as high as $7.00/bu FOB farm depending on freight and timeframe of delivery. All in all, these bids remain sell values!

Oats are showing a tiny glimmer of hope as new crop milling values find some strength this week. Unfortunately, however, old crop bids remain virtually non-existent unless you’re willing to push product into the feed market. Those bids still sit around $3.50/bu FOB farm, but buyers may look at targets closer to $4.00/bu FOB, similar to last week. Overall, this is not a bad price given the risk vs reward scenario of feed markets versus milling. As mentioned, new crop has seen some life with a buyer in the market for tonnage at $5.50/bu delivered plant for Jan-March 2024 delivery – a bit better than the $5.00/bu delivered Apr-Aug 2024 bids seen last week. We’re not saying to go out and sell the whole farm, but one might consider 10 – 20% of expected production as a hedge against the large carryout. We suspect once the combines start rolling, which isn’t too far away, that it might not take long to fill this tonnage. As always, for anything over and above, give us a shout to talk or place a firm offer up for purchase.

Mustard prices are mostly sideways this week with yellow still the price leader sitting around 90 cents/lb picked up on farm. Some demand for spot brown mustard has popped up as well with the odd trade now hitting the books at 83 cents/lb delivered for non-hybrid varieties. Oriental continues to lag in price and demand, but still shows historically strong values from 60-65 cents/lb picked up. Production contracts are still attainable as well with some stronger bids on yellow this week (73 cents/lb). Brown and oriental remain subdued with bids around 60 cents/lb, although targets slightly higher may be entertained. The thought remains that average yields might not be realistic in key Saskatchewan/ Alberta growing areas this year, due to the lack of moisture. Meanwhile, Montana’s mustard crop conditions seem to have improved and average yields to the south of us are likely achievable. Once the market has a handle on production, both domestically and internationally, we can expect pricing to be less volatile as buyers get a better handle on supply vs demand.

Flax prices remain quiet despite the dry Canadian weather. Over the last week, prices have ranged anywhere from $14.00- $14.50/bu picked up on farm for movement within the next couple months. There remains a wide enough spread between European and Canadian prices that it could encourage new sales. Analysts are waiting to see what the reports bring out of the Kazakhstan region, and if earlier reports on reduced flax acres are accurate, then those supplies could start to trend lower. For now, on the buying side, it is still quiet, but opportunities to move limited tonnage have popped up here and there. As we start to see supplies tighten globally, we may see some price movement, but for now, the carryover is likely to encourage prices sideways.

Forecasts for dryness through July and August are continuing to support soybean prices as the soybean charts show green to start Wednesday morning. The markets are closely watching growing conditions with critical development months for the bean throughout July and August. As of July 17th, the U.S soybean crop was rated 55% good to excellent. Local bids for soybeans sit around $18.50-19.00/bu location dependent, with local bids for faba beans hovering around $13.50-14.00/bu in SK. Feed fabas continue to see values around $10.00-10.50/bu, location dependent, but actual trade is virtually non-existent.

Canadian chickpea market talk indicates growers are more nervous about what their acres will yield than quality concerns at this stage. In general, the heat and rain has been timely enough that quality issues aren’t generally on the radar, but late seeding and not enough rain do affect production. In regard to current selling opportunities, growers feel the market is undervalued as they see supply possibly being short in the coming harvest and are willing to hold bushels for higher values. If opportunities were to arise with a “pop” in bids, we could see some shake loose, but asking a seller where their target price is evokes a debate on where markets could go and ultimately uncertainty. Interest now turns to Turkey for the next move in chickpea markets. They are a month away from harvest and often their values are cheaper on a global scale compared to North America. If that remains the case, it could be a longer wait for a steadier move in chickpeas vs the “opportunity” buying that has been happening over the last year.

Pea markets are still digesting the possible hit to yields for the upcoming harvest. The notable shift will be the green pea acre reduction and while yellows may coast in value, greens could see a bump as yield and quality reports start to roll in. Old crop #2 yellow peas are valued around $9.50-$10/bu (in select locations) FOB farm for nearby movement, and new crop can still be contracted with an AOG around $9/bu. Old crop #2 green peas range depending on location: SE Sask can see trades around $14.00/bu FOB, while SE Alberta bids are closer to $13.50/bu FOB farm. These values are fickle and extremely freight sensitive. New crop green peas are quoted around $13/bu for most locations, although we believe buyers will entertain offers. Current crop conditions are mixed throughout growing areas with some seeing worsening conditions as continued dryness and heat takes its toll, while others are getting rain and seeing improvement. Overall, this offers little insight into what will be harvested. Feed markets hold value around $9/bu FOB farm, a strong value, but not much supply.

Continued news out of the Black Sea Region as Russia has left the grain deal that allowed safe passage of ships through the Black Sea. Since leaving the deal on Monday, the Ukrainian port of Odesa has experienced two nights of missile strikes damaging the port. The anticipation of the country backing out appears to already be factored into values as markets shifted but saw no huge surprises. That said, missile strikes and Russian statements on the safety of ships that attempt passage through the Black Sea were made, wheat futures reacted and jumped 9% as of writing. Looking locally, the spring wheat crop rating in SK has moved to 50% good/excellent, 34% fair and 16% poor as of July 10, with durum seeing 25% good/excellent, 40% fair and 34% poor. This week’s local markets are seeing feed wheat trade around $10.60/bu delivered Lethbridge, with CPSR trading around $10.60/bu, CWRS at $10.55/bu, and CWRW at $10.60/bu, all delivered SK, July or August movement. Durum has seen another bump this week for both old and new crop, trading at $12.00/bu delivered SK for #1 quality, which works to mid-11’s picked up depending on location.

The red lentil market is mostly stable, but we have seen a couple of buyers increase their old crop bids slightly this week. Growers in Alberta and SE Sask may now see bids closer to 34.5-35 cents/lb FOB farm and those outside those pull zones are encouraged to throw up targets. New crop red lentil bids still sit in the 33 cents/lb range with an AOG. The majority of old crop large green lentil buyers softened bids by a couple of cents from their highs earlier this month, but one or two options still remain for growers looking to make sales around 57-58 cents/lb FOB. New crop remains stable at 55 cents FOB Farm with AOG this week. Small green lentils, new and old crop, are both priced in the 50-52 cent/lb range and growers can still take advantage of an act of God. As a final comment, we have had buyers report concerns over the price gap between red and greens lentils; thoughts are greens may see downward correction, while reds may see a slight increase.

Canola started running last Wednesday and those legs are still going. Old crop has only seen slight gains, but new crop values have increased nearly $1.50/bushel over the past week. If canola can gain another 10 cents, production contracts will be over $19.00/bu for September delivery. These gains are likely predicated on a stronger soy complex and the fact that canola crops have not seen much improvement from the July 10th crop report. It will be interesting to see what next week’s report brings and to find out if the scattered rain events this week improved crop conditions. Currently, November futures sit at $841.70/MT, up $8.30/MT on the day, while January boasts $836/MT, up $10.90/MT today.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.