The feed barley market has been weaker in the last little bit as rains increased the expected cereal production for fall and weakness in corn markets added pressure as well. Current bids are around $4.25/bushel picked up in the yard in most areas of the province with the occasional area showing a freight premium hauling into Alberta. This is a far cry from the robust pricing we saw this past winter, but historically still reasonable numbers. Fall barley bids remain $3.50 to $3.75/bu picked up in the yard currently. Malt bids are basically non-existent at this time for current crop and new, but some maltsters have said they are open to looking at firm targets if farmers are willing to show them.
Wheat markets have experienced a persistent futures price slide since the end of May. Abundant global supplies and more importantly decent North American crop conditions continue to pressure markets. The 75 cent CAD has added a modest amount of local support for wheat basis (+$5/MT). However, harvest delivery pressure is a few short months away, which will put additional pressure on local basis. $6/bu new crop delivered bids are available in milling markets. Feed wheat prices are sliding as is the general feed complex. $5.50/bu fob farm is still available but under constant daily pressure due to the typical seasonal demand slump.
It has been very stagnant in the pea market this week, not much has changed even after the StatCan report on Friday. Yellow peas have been trading around $6.25 to $6.50/bu FOB on old crop #2 quality. There is a possibility for the $7.00 to $7.25/bu FOB for higher protein yellow peas but our buyer needs to do a protein test first. Samples can be sent to the Rayglen office to see if they make the mark on the required protein levels. Regarding green peas this week there have been grower targets being put out at $8.50/bu FOB but none have traded at this venture, so that market appears to be softer as of late. Today’s indications on a FOB farm #2 Green price would be around $8.25/bu in your pocket.
It has not been looking good in the soybean market in the past couple weeks. Chinese retaliatory tariff threats to the US weigh heavily on soybeans. If China does decide to go ahead with tariffs in a trade war, it could create a huge opportunity for Canadian soybeans, canola, and peas to the Chinese markets. Time will tell how this will all unfold. Canadian acres seeded this year on soybeans is down 13.2% from 2017 to 6.3 million acres according to the StatCan report. Spot price of Soybeans has been plunging lower with the markets, but you can still find opportunities for $10.00/bu FOB in most areas due to the weak loonie. Just call your Rayglen merchant for details.
Canola futures seem to be stabilizing in the $506 to $510/MT range. The decline of the Chicago soy complex is the primary reason the canola market has seen some weight on it, as next to soybeans canola looks expensive. In most areas price is still hovering around $11.00/bu as a fob price, give or take 10 cents on freight. Production of new crop is also around the corner, so unless a weather threat emerges, prices are likely to remain sideways. The StatCan report came out last week pegging Canadian canola acres at 22.7 million, above the previous estimate of 21.4 million acres. This was in line with trade expectations, so it has only had a moderate influence on basis levels. Attention in the market mostly remains looking at trade patterns by the US/China conflict. It is not a bad idea to consider putting some new crop canola on the books to take away some risk.
The StatCan report came out last week and it wasn’t surprising that flax seeded acres are down. Looking at the 2018 crop year it showed a 15% decline which is the lowest seeded acres since 2011. Observing the weather, most areas have received scattered rains so our yield outlook is looking average. However, even if yields turn out average, we could end up with less supplies than the 2017-2018 marketing year. US acres are in good shape as of right now, however, the US has had a sharper acreage decline than Canada. Due to decreased acres and supplies, there is the potential for prices to be supported. Currently, we have new crop brown flax trading anywhere from $12-12.25/bu with an Act of God. Current crop is trading at $12.75/bu delivered to plant.
Typically, July is the time of year for canary stocks to disperse and prices to soften but that cannot be said this year. Global trade uncertainty, currency weakness and lack of confidence in the largest countries buying canaryseed support the firm steady tone in the market. Producers with stock on farm trend toward holding if they have the space to do so waiting for higher prices. Mexico is amidst a presidential election and Europe’s dollar has had these buyers stepping back from traditional forward contracting for the 2018/19 crop year. All things considered there is a bullish feel to the market with even with reported acres down to 223,000 from 255,000 in 2017. Values remain steady week after week at $0.21/lb for old and new crop. If these bids are not hitting home runs, consider an offer to allow the market to sell the product before they have to own it.
As stated last week, the StatCan acreage report has given the trade a better idea of the color breakdown on lentils that are in the ground this year. Both large and small greens are seeing increases while reds have dropped by about 14%. We are already seeing new crop bids for small greens starting to drop off, with bids now down to 21/19 cents/lb fob farm for a 1/2 grade with movement from September to December. Early this week new crop large greens had been trading at 24/22 on #1/#2 quality, but the expectations are these prices wont last too long, so if you want to take a bit of risk off this year’s crop, be sure to give us a call. Red lentils continue to fall despite the news of decreased acres. The large on farm supply around the world should keep the price from seeing any significant recovery or even stabilizing in the near term. Old crop and new crop bids are both hanging around 15 cents/lb delivered into plant for multiple locations.
Once again, oats have given us very little to talk about this week are prices are stable and showing no real signs of adjusting either way. Some small news came of the StatCan report showing oat acres down approximately 4.6% from last year at a total of 3.1 million acres. This was not effective at moving prices as #2 CW oats are still trading around $2.30/bu fob farm depending on location and feed oats are down around $2.15/bu fob farm. These prices tend to strengthen the further south and east you get. Some new crop options still exist around the $3/bu mark delivered to plant on the east side of the province for a later movement period.
The market on chickpeas still remains quiet as growers and buyers absorb the StatCan report recently out. Acres are now being shown up to 469,000 acres, or up 123% from 2017. This has made new crop prices a little unstable across the board on sizing, also options that are dependent on sizing in the fall. If you want to get your name on some new crop acres we can attempt to find the best program available. Reports on the chickpea progress have been mostly positive so far, except for a few dry pockets in the province. This also may pressure the new crop price as time goes on. So, we recommend talking to your merchant if you have open acres.
Mustard this week is holding steady again. Prices haven’t moved at all even with that StatCan report that came out last week. Seeded area was much higher than anticipated with 503,800 acres compared to last year with 400,000 acres. Brown mustard was the biggest increase up to 171,000 acres compared to last year with 77,000 acres. Oriental was down a bit, and yellow up a bit. Old crop values are still the same as last week with yellow at 35c/lb, brown at 34c/lb, and oriental at 28c/lb all on a #1 quality. New crop values are also hanging in there with brown still at 33c/lb, oriental at 28c/lb, and yellow at 35c/lb on a full crop year movement, and Act of God.
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