Barley has kept stride with most other commodities this week, pulling back bit by bit every day. With timely moisture events continuing throughout the prairies, growers and buyers alike have become hopeful that we’ll see a crop this year, and in turn values continue to slide. Old crop feed barley is trading around $7.00 – $7.50/bu FOB farm today, but top end bids are becoming harder to find every hour it seems. Historically, this is still a great number, even for malt, let alone feed and our recommendation continues to be sell, sell, sell. New crop feed barley contracts still have interest as well and growers can likely catch bids around $7.00/bu FOB farm without act of God at the time of writing. Hope and anticipation of a decent barley crop suggests locking in a portion of expected production at these values is a smart move. Malt markets remain very quiet, but for growers with targets or questions, feel free to call in to chat options. Yesterday’s StatsCan report showed barley acres down around 15%. How this coincides with malt vs feed we aren’t totally sure, but given the available moisture this year, versus virtually nil last year, we suspect overall tonnage might surpass last years.
Oat markets haven’t seen the major kneejerk reaction to rains as much as other crops these past couple weeks, but given the time of year, this does not come as much of a surprise. We are in the months where oat millers are typically full-up on old crop and waiting for harvest to start. That said, finding an old crop value, milling or otherwise, almost seems to fall on deaf ears right now. However, we have been able to secure the odd contract for growers, so the best option today is to call in and show us what you have to work with. New crop oat values are still triggering around the $6.50/bu range delivered into Eastern, SK and/or Manitoba. Bids for new crop are a bit sporadic, so being ready to pull the trigger when opportunities present themselves is key. If you’re willing to hold product into early or even late 2023, you can likely add a few cents to that bid. Given the release of yesterday’s StatsCan report showing a seeded area increase of around 16%, getting some new crop locked in ensures movement and hedges downside risk on a potentially large crop.
Like most other markets this week, peas continue to pull back in value. Old crop yellow peas have traded at a high of $15.00/bu, while green peas show bids between $13.00 – 13.75/bu, both picked up on farm. Bids for old crop seem to be quite shallow as buyers take a couple of loads, re-evaluate their bids (usually dropping), and come back to the market to purchase. If you are needing some bin space before harvest, now is the time to book in before prices pull back even more, as a July – August movement is still available. For new crop, yellow peas are priced at $13.00 – 14.00/bu, depending on location, with an act of God. Green peas are indicated at $13.00/bu picked up in light trade. Maple peas remain quiet with very few old crop bids available and new crop being indicated at $13.00/bu.
Chickpea acres are reported by StatsCan to be about the same as last year, but it is worth noting last year acres were down 37% from 2020. The US numbers are also showing a slight decline, down by 5% from 2021. As the market ebbs and flows and trade incrementally eats through what is in the bin, it is expected values should be supported through the year. With the late season and continual rains in Canada and drought conditions in the US, talk has already started about quality concerns. Despite all the challenges, the year ahead for chickpeas could shape up to be a strong one. Old and new crop bids have come to parity now ranging from $0.40-.45/lb for both selling periods. Act of God’s are still available too on new crop bids to lock in a few bushels per acres. Sample grade and feed product are always in demand and bids have maintained at $0.30/lb FOB farm. Depending on downgrading factors, poor quality could see a slight uptick to that value.
Planted flax acres are recorded as 24% lower in the 2022/23 season compared to last year, as per the latest StatsCan report that came out earlier this week. However, with estimated yields expected to exceed last year, production is expected to surpass 2021 by 55,000MT. Flax prices have fallen further this week with old and new crop now sitting in the $27-$28.00/bu range. Flax crops in the US and Canada both look decent after some much needed moisture, but for the near term, prices are expected to stay fairly flat. In order to capture business into Europe, Canadian values will still need to decline to be competitive. This could mean in the longer picture we see values decline. Prices are volatile right now and changing at a fast pace, so if you are looking to move some flax, give our office a call for up-to-date bids in your yard.
Canola markets are posting losses today, at the time of writing, despite Tuesday’s StatsCan report showing a 4.7% decline in seeded area year over year. Most of the weakness is reportedly due to losses in soyoil, but there is also spillover from slipping crude and palm oil markets as well. Currently, July futures are down just a touch over $18/MT at $863.30/MT, while November futures sit at $820.80/MT, down nearly $8/MT this morning. Not all hope is lost though as gains in European rapeseed as well as a weaker Loonie provide support. After factoring in local basis levels, average bids for old crop sit around $18.50-$19.25/bu delivered plant, while new crop values are posted around $18/bu delivered. These are still historically great values to lock in any remaining product in the bin and/or hedge a portion of expected production, even if they pale in comparison to a few short weeks ago.
The canary market has slipped a bit more this past week as spot prices have come down to 44 cents/lb picked up on farm or 45 cents delivered to plant. New crop bids remain in the 40 to 42 cents range FOB farm and do include an act of God. The StatsCan seeded acreage report pegs canary acres at 291k, which is down a little from last year’s 314k, but up a tick from the April numbers, which suggested 268k acres would be seeded. Current conditions are better on all crops with the recent rains, but early dryness (drought) in a large swath of canary country has that crop out on poor footing, so we will see if the rains can help recoup some yield potential. The bins seem to be mostly cleared out of old crop canary other than a few stragglers, so this crop will matter a fair bit as we seem to finally have exhausted much of the old carry-over that canaryseed has had for years and years.
The wheat market is tumbling hard for a second straight day, which makes it tough to quote values as bids seem to be here and then gone faster than kids leaving the dinner table. That said, we’ll try to give you a ballpark figure. Spot bids on a 13.5% protein HRSW pencil out somewhere around $11/bu delivered in with new crop indicated around that $10.50/bu del range. For firmer values tailored to your area or specs, please call the office. StatsCan spring wheat numbers usher up over last year by roughly 10.5%. A strong bump was due to favorable pricing and strong global demand around the time of seeding. Late planting in some areas means we are still a ways away from harvest, and with global pandemonium, this market is volatile. Feed wheat prices remain a little unsteady as well, hovering around $9-9.50/bu range depending on farm location for both old and new crop. The durum market has stumbled this week with spot bids sinking around $13.50-14/bu, on par with new crop.
This week the carnage continues in commodities markets. Mustard markets, in particular, are still remarkably strong despite this, but are coming down as StatsCan released predictions of 555,000ac planted. This is up an astonishing 80 percent! The weather also remains decent for mustard in key growing areas as rains have fallen again for some growers. If you have not yet booked new crop acres, now is the time to call us! The window to sell at strong spot prices is also closing fast. Bids are subject to quick changes as buyers get their July needs met, meaning these values can change daily, if not hourly. Old crop yellow mustard is still indicated in the $1.50/lb range, brown sits somewhere around $1.80/lb, and oriental likely still trades at $0.90-$1.00/lb, all FOB farm and moved before harvest. New crop mustard has pulled back with bids on yellow and brown still indicated around the $0.90-$0.95 cent range, with oriental likely to trade at similar levels. These bids still include a full act of God and are quoted as FOB the farm. Price targets continue to be our best marketing tool when it comes to mustard. It is important to call your merchant to discuss using this system to secure the highest values in this market.
Lentil markets continue to fall as the commodity correction continues to hammer down all types of grain. Early reports are suggesting that this year’s lentil crops are far better than last years’ and that has not helped prices. Rains continue to fall in showers in a lot of areas reducing the number of regions that struggle with moisture. This has put most buyers in a wait and see or hand to mouth buying position at this time. All colours of lentils have not gone unscathed in this market. Buyers are still looking for small amounts of each, but the prices are specific to location, quality, and buyer. The pricing on old and new crop green lentils have converged in some cases, but there are a few left looking to buy spot product at a slight premium. The risk with carrying green 2021/22 lentils into the fall, is that if this year’s quality far exceeds last years, buyers may opt to only take 2022 harvested product or put a preference on it. We have seen this before. It’s best to call us for pricing as daily changes in this market makes quoting general values near impossible. Firm offers are a good tool to try and catch higher values in a falling market, please talk to your merchant.
Soybean prices found overnight strength on larger than expected cuts to U.S. soybean crops and technical signals which triggered bargain buying. The U.S. soybean crop condition is tracking just short of the five-year average despite headwinds of heat stress and a slow start to the season. Local bids are location dependent and range from $18.00-$18.25/bu FOB farm. StatsCan recently reduced dry bean planted acres to just under 300k, which is a 32% drop year over year. Reduced planted acres, a smaller 2021 crop and measured farmer selling are expected to be supportive factors for dry bean prices. Global faba production prospects appear favourable at this point. Australia faba production is still on track to exceed their 10yr average. Domestic prices continue to take direction from the pea market. New crop faba bids showing up around $13.00/bu FOB farm for a #2. Old crop feed faba bids are near $11-$12/bu FOB farm and old crop #2 grades are migrating lower with yellow pea bids.
Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.