Feed wheat prices have held up quite well over the past few weeks and we still see bids better than $5/bu picked up on farm in most areas; many bids are touching $5.50/bu in the yard. These bids are based on 58 lbs and dry (14.5%), but if you’re holding some off-grade spring threshed, we do have buyer interest in that as well. Cheaper USD and comparatively raising CAD is not helping the local feed prices as corn becomes more appetizing to bring up on rail. Taking advantage on the strong-ish feed prices that we have today would likely be a prudent move. Price on #1 CWRS (13.5% pX) hovers around $6.25 to $6.40/bu delivered to elevator depending on movement window. Durum prices for #1 product are still floating around the high $7’s to low $8’s/bu range as a delivered price for #1, 13.5%- touch base with what you have to firm up a price.
Tight supplies on flax throughout North America have kept prices at bay. Milling quality flax still hovers around $16.00/bu picked up. Lesser-quality flax prices vary from there, depending on specs. The recent strength in the Canadian dollar has also prevented any further gain in prices. If US crusher bids continue to lower, we could see the run of higher priced flax start to meet up with new crop prices, sitting closer to $13.00/bu FOB. If buyers have a hard time filling the pipeline because of tight supplies, they will likely just wait until new crop supplies are available. This is a good time to move any old crop that is in the bins. Although new crop supplies aren’t going to be heavy, the export competition would likely leave Canada more dependant on the US market.
Canary prices have slipped backwards slightly, which puts prices closer to 27 cents. New crop values are 25-26 cents picked up, with an act of God. The canary market has had a good marketing year, seeing up to 30 cents per pound and analysts don’t expect to see those prices again before 2020 harvest. The biggest factor in canary prices will be weather issues, but as we know, weather is unpredictable. Putting the first 10 bu/acre on the books at these new crop levels makes sense as the spread between old and new crop is shrinking. Earlier reports of tight supplies and a sharp price rally before harvest have faded.
This week we saw pea prices take a slide to close some of the gap between old and new crop. Green peas were hit the hardest, now being indicated around $9.00/bu, when last week we were able to get $11.00/bu. Yellow peas weren’t hit quite as hard as bids sit around $7.50/bu FOB today. We can expect old crop prices to remain sideways or slip slightly further as we near new crop. New crop green peas are trading at $8.50/bu FOB and yellows are at $7.00/bu FOB. Maple peas remain steady at $9.00/bu on both old and new crop. Looking to the export side, we are relying on China to remain an active and stable buyer. If this is the case, our 2020/2021 supplies could be tight based on average production numbers.
Barley seeding is now wrapped up for the most part and growers eagerly await to see the fruits of their labour. Feed markets remain a bright spot as we enter the summer months and growers holding on to feed barley should consider making some sales. Bids continue to hit the $4-$4.50/bu mark this week and with a stronger CAD (weaker USD), we could see US corn make its way int our markets. New crop feed barley bids are also quite attractive with many growers quoted around $4.00/bu on farm. On the other side, malt barley continues its lackluster performance due to the effects of Covid-19 on consumption. We hear and see reports of maltsters pushing contracted barley shipping periods out every day and even offering growers the option to void contracts if they choose. Therefore, bids on old and new crop remain few and far between. That being said, we do see the odd opportunity pop up, so make sure your merchant knows what you’ve got and your target value.
July canola futures have had a strong week after a couple weeks of poor performance. At the time of writing, the futures are at $467.80/MT. This compares to $460/MT one week ago. Much of this strength comes from managed funds covering off their short positions after near record short positions in many agriculture markets. The markets were, however, limited from more upside due to losses on Chicago soy and the Canadian dollar gaining strength over the past week. Looking forward, the November futures showed a bit of upside in the past week and sit at $471.20/MT, up from $468/MT one week ago.
Soybean futures continue in an upward trend built on reports of Chinese demand. Concrete details are scant and unsubstantiated regarding soybean purchases by state-owned Chinese grain companies. Local soybean bids continue to hover around $10.00/bu picked up depending on location. New crop Faba bids are in the range of $8.00/bu for #2 export quality. This would be in line with long term new crop bids and represents an opportunity for growers. Firm prices available for any old crop dry bean inventory based on last year’s North American production shortfall. New largely contracted and acres are anticipated to be up 12% year over year.
Sask Ag. Initial reports of chickpea conditions show 76% of the crop rated good or excellent compared to the 33% last year. Global response to the value of chickpeas has resulted in a 40-45% decrease in Mexican acres and 30% decrease in both the US and Canada. Along with the flat line of values the export numbers have been exceptionally low in turn leaving ending stocks untouched. While COVID-19 has helped raise up special crops and open doors the same cannot be translated to Chickpeas to date. New crop values still hover around $0.25-$0.26/lb on the farm with an AOG and potential for more on a deferred delivery contract. Current crop values are steadfast at $0.27-$0.28/lb depending on location or delivery. Sample/Feed values come in at $0.12/lb
Don’t tell oats that the majority of the other commodity markets are flat or down as they continue to stride on. Old crop oats have a strangle hold on pricing again this week, with buyers in Manitoba desperately searching for product. Prices are reacting accordingly with $4.55/bu delivered in with the potential for uptick as new crop is still a distance away. Should increased new crop acres falter in eastern Sask/Man due to extenuating circumstances (rain etc), we could see new crop price potential increase as that area is a major stronghold for the milling market. As it sits right now, new crop milling prices range from $3.40 – $3.60/bu delivered in with the latter price for pushed out movement. If you are sitting on some feed oats, dry heavy product continues to garner that $2.60 – $3.00/bu depending on location.
Lentil markets remain unchanged from last week. Prices for #2 red lentils remain at 30 cents FOB farm. Large green lentils are trading at 32 cents for X2 and 30-31 for a #2, both FOB farm. Small green lentils have traded as high as 30 cents for a #1 and 25 for a #2. Lentils head into the final quarter of this crop year with the expectation of finishing ahead of last year’s shipments as well as the five-year average. At the end of quarter 3 we were approximately 0.3 mln tonnes ahead of last year. With the late shipping this year it has helped lower our ending stocks, which should help keep new crop pricing relatively strong. Things that may affect future pricing is that Australia seems to be able to keep finding lentils to sell even though they have surpassed the reported ending stock. To date they have shipped 110,000 tonnes more then they reported. Canadian crop condition, at this point in time, are in good shape but it still early in the season and the last piece to the puzzle is India and what they decide to do with tariffs at the end of August.
Prices have remained stagnant this week. The talk over the last few days has been about flea beetle pressure. We have had numerous reports of crops being sprayed out and re-seeded with either mustard or something else. Also we know of a few growers waiting to see what happens after weekend rains and then deciding what to do. Stay tuned. We have had a few trades on mustard in the bin and a few new crop acres have been booked recently. Spot oriental mustard sits at 27 cents for Forge and 25 cents for Cutlass, for summer movement from June to July. New crop is sitting at 29 cents FOB for Forge or Vulcan and 27 cents now for Cutlass. Yellow mustard remains around 36 to 37 cents for spot and new crop. Brown trades at 27 to 28 cents FOB for spot and as high as 30 cents for new crop. Call your merchant with any offers and to talk possible targets.
Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.