The oat market continues to show a major lack of interest from the milling side, as the one or two bids you can find for milling opportunities are very shallow and pushed out on movement. As it stands today, the best options to sell oats is into the feed market, as that still seems to be catching sales opportunities at bids of $3.50/bu in the yard or better in most areas, and subsequently where most oat sales have been done in recent weeks. We are not expecting a whole lot of change out of this market for the time being, as fall pricing does not look terribly different than today’s options. So it’s mostly sideways for now until we get some kind of a shakeup.
Chickpea markets are extremely quiet for yet another week. It feels like groundhog day, week after week, as we wait for global interest to ignite. There are rumours of drought conditions in India that could have some effect on selling power for North America. It is worth mentioning that today’s values are still exceptional when compared to historical averages. Old crop is still trading around $0.50/lb FOB farm, but buyers are starting to shy away from taking on too much of a position. New crop is sideways at $0.47 to 0.48/lb FOB farm with an AOG, and again, buyers do not want to own a lot at these levels given current growing conditions being favourable. If you have it in the bin and need to make room, consider letting some chickpeas go before fall. Feed and sample chickpea bids are unchanged around $0.30/lb FOB farm, depending on the downgrading factors.
Canola is enjoying a rally largely due to the soy complex rally that can be primarily credited to a soy oil bounce. Old crop carryout inventory will remain tight through the balance of the 22/23 crop year. Globally, there will be the usual variability in canola/rapeseed production for 23/24. The Aussie crop is anticipated to drop significantly from last year’s 8.3 MMT to near 5 MMT. EU production is forecast to increase from 19.5 MMT to 21.0 MMT. One should also expect some variability in production from the Baltic region as there have been weather challenges thus far. Old crop values range from $15.30-$16 FOB farm, and new is in the range of $14 – $14.50 FOB farm.
Soybean futures are seeing a rally driven by drier weather in the US Midwest. Soybean crop rating fell 3% to 59% GE, coming in under analyst expectations. Local bids are still holding up quite well at $18.00-$18.50/bu FOB farm location dependent. Dry bean bids are stubbornly unchanged. From a larger perspective the market remains well supported, just generally inactive. Feed quality fabas continue to be supported by pet food values. Local bids with export quality #2 faba bids being in the range of $13.50-$14.00/bu FOB farm, and feed quality values are near $10.00-$10.50/bu FOB farm location dependent.
Barley news once again this week comes in with not much change to report of in any way, shape, or form. Old crop pricing is still holding at that $7.25 – $8.00/bu FOB farm range, but buyers are still not reaching to obtain the tonnage. Although this price has been stagnant for the last couple of weeks, suspect that the more we inch closer to a 2023 harvest, this value is due to drop off a bit and close the gap between new crop and old crop values. New crop is still indicated anywhere in the $6.00 – $7.00/bu range, depending on timeframe of delivery and area. Suspect, however, that if the prairies continue to capture some spotty rains in areas, that this number will eventually back off a bit as well in anticipation of some fuller bins this year than we have seen in previous years. Australia and China have also solved their discrepancies, so once all the I’s are dotted and T’s are crossed between the two, suspect this will have an impact to the landed Canadian value. New crop and old crop malt still remains to be a non-topic of discussion; however, we highly suggest if you have something in mind to call in and think about placing a firm offer out there.
Canaryseed markets have pulled back a little bit this week, but they are still showing some great values to sell into. The price spread between old crop and new crop is almost next to nil, which we have been expecting to see. Old crop values are posted around that $0.355/lb FOB farm price range, while new crop is still triggering in the $0.35/lb FOB farm, including an act of God. Most buyers are willing to entertain anywhere from 10 – 15 bushels to the acre at those values as well. Given the spread between old and new, locking in what you have left in the bin is a power play move today. Clear the bins, get some cash flow, and prepare to fill them again in a couple months’ time. Given that buyers are still not reaching to lock in some tonnage on either old or new, we do not suspect to see a price rally anytime soon. If you have a sell price in mind however, firm offers and targets are still highly suggested as we never know when a pocket for demand may open up.
Flax pricing is flat again this week with indications around $14.00 – $14.50/bu delivered. The pool of buyer interest is shallow. If you have flax in the bin you need to move out before harvest, call our office to put it on offer. New crop is indicating around $13.00 to $13.50/bu picked up this week, but we are collecting some offers at $14/bu FOB as some buyer interest has been at that level. Although seeded acres are down, between the carry-over and acres planted overseas, we aren’t likely to see any major price increases on flax. To increase exports, Canadian prices need to remain competitive in the world market, but Russia and their cheap product continue to be the dominant supplier into China. There is a small chance that we could increase exports to the US due to the smaller US crop that has been planted, but for now, the US bids have also softened. This market will take some patience for it to turn around.
Peas continue to look similar to last week with very little change in pricing across all types. Greens continue to hold firm at $14.00/bu FOB farm in SK, with new crop greens beginning to get a look from sellers at $13.00-13.50/bu with act of God. Yellows continue to sit sideways around the $9.50/bu FOB farm or $10.00 delivered in SK mark, with new crop sitting in the $9.00-9.50/bu range with AOG. For new crop green and yellow peas, sellers are also being shown options via deferred delivery contracts where a $0.50/bu increase from previously listed prices are available. Old crop maples have a bit of a range, seeing $14.50-16.25/bu depending on freight and delivery method. New crop maples are showing $14.00/bu for some, while some buyers are offering as high as $16.00/bu without Act of God, variety dependent. Lastly, dun peas have seen a little action this week, trading around the $12.00/bu FOB mark in SE Sask. Looking overseas, analysts have their eyes on the upcoming Russian pea crop. With Russia and China’s phytosanitary agreement nearing the half year mark, it is expected Russia could steal Canada’s position of top pea exporter to China. Fortunately, Russian peas will be destined to feed markets so Canada should hold onto the fractionation market. With large Russian stocks and their pea harvest approaching quickly, some analysts suggest Canadian pea prices will experience some downward pressure this season.
The common theme of green lentils being the top performer in the lentil markets stays true this week. Small, medium, and large greens continue to be a sought-after item for numerous buyers, with additional purchasers coming to the table this week. While some who have been in the market for a few weeks have been able to back off slightly, prices continue to hold very strong. Large greens are trading as high as $0.615/lb delivered SK, with new crop around the $0.52/lb FOB farm mark with AOG. Medium greens are being bought at $0.40/lb (USD), with new crop not far behind at $0.37/lb (USD) with AOG. Small greens hold strong as well, trading as high as $0.52/lb FOB farm for #1 spot, and new crop trading at huge prices as high as $0.50/lb with AOG on #1 quality. Reds have been somewhat sideways the last few weeks, sitting at $0.34/lb FOB farm in SK. New crop reds are seeing a few cents spread between buyers with the high-end trading around $0.34/lb FOB farm with AOG. We are seeing some opportunities on French greens this week, trading at $1.05/lb for June delivery in SK for #2 grades or better. With buyers being aggressive on most lentils, our offer system has seen some success locking in higher targets for sellers who are still looking to empty the bins.
Many mustard buyers seem to be sitting on the sidelines for both old and new crop as lots of buyers feel they are well covered heading into the fall markets at this juncture. A couple buyers are still needing one or two loads of yellow, but oriental and brown are quiet. The big question will be the weather market and speaking with buyers this week, their attention is now on watching how this year’s crop develops. Early reports are that crops are okay as they got a good start to the growing season, but some concerns with moisture, flea beetles, and grasshoppers have risen up, so keep an ear to the ground there. Pricing this week shows yellow mustard at 88 cents on old and 70 cents on new crop, brown at 68 cents old crop and 50 cents for new crop, and lastly, oriental at 58 cents on old crop and new crop 52 cents.
Wheat markets continue to be under pressure. Reasons for the pressure are an ample global supply, EU crop is progressing nicely, and Canadian weather has improved. At this point, the market is telling growers that they are comfortable with current wheat conditions. There may be some relief in pricing if the US crops continues to go backwards and Alberta remains dry. The USDA reports shows a 4-point decline in crop conditions, whilst analysts were expecting closer to a 1-point drop, so that is something to keep an eye on. The market has not responded to this news as overly drastic as the crop is still 6% better than this time last year. Milling markets seemed to be covered out until fall for many buyers, and bids show around $9.60/bu as a delivered price for #1 CWRS into fall months. Feed grains remain in that $9.50/ bushel FOB range for current crop, which is a competitive bid to what milling options are out there.
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