It’s been another bland and boring week in the oat market. There has been no movement on price at all. For a good quality #2 CW Oat, it has been around $2.50 per bus FOB the farm. There have been a few buyers posting over $3.00 per bushel delivered to plant on the east side of the province on new crop for a good quality milling oat, which may be a decent opportunity if freight costs are kept low. For more information on that, or a firm bid FOB your farm, please call your merchant!
There has been not much to speak of in the canaryseed market this past week. Producers have been selling their old crop for 21 to 22 c/lb, which isn’t much of a change from last week. Some farmers are bit reluctant to sell at those levels, because they feel prices are going to rise due to a less than estimated carry over. Not a bad thought, but as mentioned last week, inventories on canaryseed are very hard to peg and there is likely more product out there than what is being reported. Another thing to keep in mind is a potential acreage decrease this season. The new crop price is still sitting around 21 c/lb FOB the farm with an Act of God – a good starting point to lock in 5-10bu/ac.
The canola market has saw some ups and downs this week. Basis levels have been better for a number of buyers for summer movement, but the futures have had some stumbles following the turmoil in soybean, soy oil and other markets. The trade war has heavily affected the commodities market for corn and soybeans, which has extended into other markets like canola. Current crop conditions seem to be good to ok in most areas of the province, but with a caveat that rain will be needed, before long, for the crop to not have serious setbacks. Pricing opportunities this week seem to be in the mid-$11 range for a FOB farm price with the occasional area and price creeping a little higher closer to $12/bu freight included.
Jumping at small opportunities seems to be the name of the game in the pea market. Currently, yellow peas are trading at $6.25/bu picked up with some areas still seeing $7/bu delivered. We had a $6.50/bu picked up bid that was filled quite quickly – if this price range interests you, putting out an offer is beneficial should another program pop up for a limited time. Green peas have pulled back slightly and $8.50/bu picked up might be possible, but it is getting tough to find. The overseas market hasn’t seen any upside since what was discussed last week. India is providing the main source of uncertainty for our Canadian market.
It was an interesting week in the world of wheat, with the trade turmoil that between the US and China and the US and Japan. After the markets took quite the hit earlier in the week the US wheat markets seem to be slowly climbing back up. Some of the market hit also came from the USDA report that stated favorable yields and better growing conditions in the US. The durum market has not seen much upside and prices are still sitting closer to $7.25/bu delivered. Most areas of the province have received an adequate amount of rain, which isn’t providing much benefit to prices either. There is movement happening in the feed market, so if you have any low protein wheat or durum you’re looking to move, with no discounts or dockage, call your merchant for a pickup price.
Barley markets have come off their highs from a few weeks back, but are still holding steady at decent values. Current values are being supported by low ending stocks for 2017-18 coupled with increased domestic and export demand. New crop prospects begin to affect the market this time of year. 2018-19 barley production is forecasted to be up 5% year-over-year to 8.3 million MT. Alberta crop conditions are aligned with last year at this time, with the barley crop condition ranked at 82% good to excellent. Current prices are in the $4.30-$4.50/bu picked up depending on freight location.
Soybeans took it on the chin this week and weren’t spared as the general grain complex got speed-bagged in response to increased trade tensions between the US and China. Soybean futures slumped to near 10-year lows after Trump’s additional tariff announcement on Monday. Our domestic price is still holding respectably due to the recent decrease in value of our currency. The CAD is roughly trading at 75 cents of the USD value and generating spot soybean bids in the range of $10.90/bu picked up on farm. Local faba bean bids are in the $6.25-$6.50/bu FOB farm range for feed quality depending on location.
Chickpeas remain very quiet this week. Slow sales from buyers overseas seem to dominate the talk about chickpeas. Everybody awaits the news from chickpea growing countries on conditions and yields. There continues to be a dry trend in parts of Saskatchewan, but so far it has not triggered any concern. In addition, several producers took advantage of high priced new crop contracts at the end of 2017 and are not interested in locking in any more acres at today’s levels. “Wait and see” is the sentiment from both buy and sell. New crop and old crop bids are par at $0.28-$0.30/lb depending on location.
Mustard remains in the same tight trading range this week as expected. Nothing is moving the markets either way as the crop progresses. There may be some issues with crop conditions in some areas, but nothing yet to move the market. Old crop sales seem to be getting close to finished from processors as their export sales for short term are being fulfilled. So, spot pricing does look like it will remain relatively flat for the foreseeable future unless weather turns very dry and hot with no further rain. It might be a good time to get some old crop moved for July and August and get new crop production locked up. Yellow mustard sits at $0.34 to $0.35/lb on old crop and $0.35/lb on new. Old crop brown varieties continue to hover around mid- high 30’s and $0.33/lb on new crop. Finally, oriental mustard values hover around $0.27-$0.28/lb for both old and new crop, with a small opportunity for better spot values if you have Vulcan variety. If these prices don’t suit you today, call your merchant with some offers if you have a target in mind. This is a great way to show your mustard to various buyers.
Flax is a little sluggish this week as buyers seem to slow down purchasing and prices remain flat to slightly lower depending on location, quality and variety. Yellow flax is getting tough to move at this point as buyers just are not seeing a lot of trade interest for old or new crop. Brown flax has been slightly better, with more buyers showing interest, but prices remain in that $12.25 to $12.75 per bushel. Early reports on new crop flax conditions are in decent shape as of a week ago. There are definitely areas that are in poor condition, but at this point the good areas likely outweigh the bad. Until the market receives more indication of reduced yield or poorer crop conditions markets likely stay sideways.
Red lentils continue to be the commodity everyone is asking about, but most are not ready for the truth. Reds are in a world of trouble at this point; the world is over supplied and there are other countries with better logistics and willing to sell cheaper. This market is just going to need time to recover. There needs to be a reduction in supply around the world for markets to improve. Traders seem to be reluctant to put many tonnes on the book and have little to no wiggle room on the price. At this point, very few buyers are looking to contract new crop as well, as many are thinking there is more downside to come. For now, reds remain a question mark for both sides of the trade. What to do and when to do it, is the main question. Their cousins the greens seem to be a little more stable on old crop. Prices seem to be holding steady near that 24-25 cent range for #2 and 26 cents for x2. New crop prices have lost a cent this week, but remains a good starting point in comparison to the five-year average. Buyers have also shown interest in old crop small green lentils with prices between 23-24 cents. With markets being a little on edge lately, stay in contact with your merchant.
Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.