Wheat markets continue to hold out on seeing any major price increases, although it is not a secret that Southern Alberta continues to be dry, and some of the US’ crop isn’t looking the greatest either. On a worldwide scale, the indication now is that the global wheat supply is going to be sufficient, so we’ll have to wait to see if those estimates change. Old crop milling values for #1 CWRS are still floating around that $9.50 – $9.80/bu delivered price range. There does, however, seem to be a bit of an uptick for some old crop feed wheat here this week with indications as high as that $9.90 – $10.00/bu FOB farm, depending on delivery window and area. The talk around durum remains relatively quiet to date with not much action. We suspect as the weeks continue moving along, the market is just going to react as necessary and hold out to see what the 2023 harvest is going to produce. If you do have a sell price in mind, call in and place a firm offer as small pockets of demand sometimes pop up that need to be filled.
Barley markets, once again, come without change this week, which isn’t a shock. Neither new nor old crop values have fluctuated, and demand seems to be a status quo. Overall, buyers do not appear to be chasing product aggressively, but on the same hand, aren’t pulling away from the table when shown potential sales. A widespread in values are being shown on old crop, but you can pencil in anywhere from $7.25 – $8.00/bu FOB farm, all depending on freight cost as well as delivery window. On the new crop side of things, the story remains the same with bids anywhere from $6.25 – $7.00/bu FOB farm on a deferred delivery contract; again, values are freight and delivery timeline sensitive. Pockets throughout the prairies seem to be catching some timely rains, so, one thing to remember is overall production expectation will eventually catch up to the quoted values as we inch closer to harvest. Should we pull off an above average crop in relation to what we have seen in the previous couple years, we suspect delivery windows will push out as well. Locking in 10 – 15% of your expected return this year to get some early cash flow and bin space just makes sense.
The jury is not out yet when it comes to Canadian chickpea acres, and some are predicting a significant shift given late seeding this season. The latest information provided by StatsCan was irrelevant and outdated so all eyes will be watching for viable information in the next report. Old crop buyers come and go as needs pop up as there is no one steady pipeline of end users. World Food tenders have been a driving force, but even those are not 100% certain to hold water. Old crop bids hover around $0.50/lb FOB farm for July movement, but there is not a lot of depth to this bid. New crop is around $0.44/lb FOB farm with an AOG, but as buyers make more purchases, it is pushing the values lower. Feed markets are unchanged week over week. It is hard to believe there is any strong demand in feed/pet food markets, as there have been very few trades and buyers have no interest in pushing these bids higher.
Mustard markets are still hot in the nearby, but losing gas as we move towards new crop production. Recently, we’ve received reports out of Southern Alberta and Montana having areas of isolated dry conditions, but there are equally, if not, more reports of rain and beautiful crops outside those areas. Some areas are showing plants that are 4-5 feet tall and flowering, so buyers have been reviewing their books and pushing the brakes on new crop purchases. Most sellers have already locked in 10 bushels to the acre at the highs, but if that is not you, and a production contract is on your “to-do” list, we recommend it be moved to the tippy top. We are still a long way from any kind of harvest, but the markets are responding to favourable reports and it is always a slower climb up than a fall down. Old crop is trading as follows: yellow mustard up to $0.90/lb on old and $0.70/lb on new crop, brown at $0.52/lb old crop and $0.50/lb for new crop, and lastly, oriental at $0.55/lb on old crop and new crop $0.52/lb. All are FOB farm, and the new crop contracts still include a full act of God.
There have been some gains in the lentil bids this week, specifically large green lentils, likely a response for filling short term sales and supply concerns. For those with large green lentils left in the bin, we are seeing as high as 65 cents/lb delivered, while new crop remains strong at 53 cents/lb picked up. Old crop small green lentil bids are in the 52 cents/lb picked up range, and new crop at 50 cents/lb. Red lentils remain sideways at 34 cents/lb on old crop, and around 33 cents/lb on new crop. Rain, or lack thereof in some areas, could have an impact on the crop with a mixed situation of conditions taking place. There could be concerns of root rot in some areas, but it’s still too early to raise any flags.
Oat markets remain sideways again this week with opportunities into the feed market around $3.50/bu picked up. Milling market prices are the same or non-existent. Fall pricing is similar to old crop and we don’t expect that to change on a dime. There will be some carryover as we head into the 2023/24 crop year, but with the smaller production acres that got seeded, prices may see some gains into 2024. This market won’t change overnight, but we hope to see Canadian oats secure some more market options long-term. If weather patterns change before new crop is harvested, then we could see some pressure on the prices.
Peas are holding fairly steady again this week, and growers have been reporting decent starts on their pea crops so far. Some dry areas out there continue to be an issue, but overall, a favourable spring is being reported. Green peas continue to hold in the $14.00/bu FOB farm range, with new crop greens possibly at $13.00-13.50/bu with act of God. Yellows continue to be under pressure at $9.50/bu FOB farm or $10.00/bu delivered mark, with new crop sitting in the $9.00-9.50/bu range with AOG. Old crop maples continue to see bids from $14.50-16.25/bu depending on freight and varietal type. New crop maples are showing $14.00/bu with an act of God, possibly higher depending on variety. Call your merchant to post any offer to try and squeeze what we can out of this flat market.
Flax prices are hit or miss right now as some buyers might take a stab at $14/bu FOB or delivered, pending area, on old crop this week. That said, occasionally, someone swings in looking to cover off a sale at $14.50/bu FOB for a small amount, but it’s nearly impossible to say when or if these opportunities will present themselves again. StatsCan’s numbers suggest there is still a fair bit of carryover on flax that will shift into the fall as growers are reluctant to sell much at current levels, but the tap has not been turned off completely as bin space, cashflow and market acceptance have continued to bring sellers to the table. The big upcoming question, which will hopefully be answered soon is: What is the seeded acreage and how far will StatsCan’s numbers slip? Many in the trade have suggested a sub 600 thousand seeded acreage number is most likely the case, but will StatsCan see it that way and drop significantly from the previous 689 thousand number they published? Time will tell. New crop opportunities have popped up here and there and $14/bu at the yard had traded in some areas with an act of God for those looking to secure some contract numbers for the fall.
Canaryseed remains stable yet for another week. Old crop is trading in that 37-38 cent/lb range and new crop around 34-35 cents/lb with an AOG. New crop trades have been quiet over the last few weeks, but producers seem to still be willing to sell old crop. Agriculture and Agri-Food released their outlook for principal field crops yesterday and did not paint a pretty picture for canaryseed growers. They are predicting higher exports than 22-23, but also higher carry out stocks, and increased seeded acres. They believe there will be a rise in production by 13% and rise in carry out stocks, therefore, driving down the price for the 2023-24 crop year. We’ll have to wait to see what the final acres look like, but earlier discussion was that canaryseed acres were likely to remain flat due to many other competing crops that showed better returns. However, late season drops in mustard and yellow peas may have influenced growers to relook at planting canary. Either way, canary is going to be an interesting market to keep an eye on.
Canola markets are showing mixed feelings today with July futures marginally softer, and November futures up over $5/MT at time of writing. Reports suggest downside pressure is seen from losses in other markets such as soy, European rapeseed, and palm oil, while stronger soybean futures may be providing a cushion. Currently, November futures sit at $720/MT, putting cash bids at $16.50-$17.15/bu delivered plant on old crop, and $15.75-$16.05/bu on new crop; all pending local basis levels. Crop condition reports are generally positive at this stage, although there are some pockets that are extremely dry, bordering on drought conditions. So far, these areas don’t seem to be abundant enough to warrant any concern in the canola market yet, but time will tell. Call to place your targets today!
Soybean futures are seeing a rally driven by drier weather in the US Midwest. A drop in soyoil prices was not enough to trump declining US crop condition scores. Local bids are still holding up quite well at $18.50-$19.00/bu FOB farm location dependent. Dry bean bids are stubbornly unchanged. From a larger perspective, the market remains well supported, just generally inactive. Feed quality fabas continue to be supported by pet food values. Local bids with export quality #2 faba bids being in the range of $13.50-$14.00/bu FOB farm and feed quality values are near $10.00-$10.50/bu FOB farm location dependent.
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