The pea market has not changed much from last week, although prices have been pulling back to slowly bridge the gap between old and new crop. Today, old crop yellow peas still see premium bids available at $16-16.50/bu picked up. Old crop green peas, on the other hand, have been struggling to trade at $14.00/bu picked up, with only a couple locations working at that value; some have now pulled back to $13.50/bu picked up. New crop values remain unchanged for yellows and greens, with bids at $13.50 – 14.00/bu with an act of God. Maple peas are seldom talked about, with old crop closer to $15.00/bu and new crop likely trading around $14-14.50/bu.
The lentil market has experienced many changes over the course of a week. Widespread rains hitting areas in dire need have eased buyer concern, and bids are starting to reflect that. Not only have values softened, but current selling opportunities also appear to be quite shallow on both new and old crop. Appetite for large quantities doesn’t exist as hand to mouth purchasing takes over. Red lentil markets have pressure from increased acres in Australia and declining lentil bids in Turkey as their crop develops, which will continue to soften the market. Old crop red lentil bids are sitting at 37-38 cents/lb picked up with new crop now down to 35 cents picked up with act of God. Old crop #2 large green lentil bids fluctuate quite a bit with 50-53 cents being indicated, while new crop drops to 45-46 cents picked up. Small green lentils have seen a little less volatility this week with old crop at 49-50 cents and new crop at 42 cents picked up with act of God. Last year’s large green lentils were of poorer quality, due to excess heat causing higher splits, so if we end up getting a good crop this growing season, we can expect buyers to shy away from 2021 production. It’s a good time to consider moving your old crop into the market while prices are still historically high. Also, with recent rain events, now is the time to lock in 10bu/acre with an AOG on your lentils if you haven’t already.
It’s been a tough couple of days for soybean futures as they have given up ground over the last two sessions. US soybean crop conditions and planting progress are both in good shape. Most of what’s remaining to be planted is double crop beans and will get done once the winter wheat harvest is wrapped up. As is typical, crop condition scores and weather-related issues will play a strong hand in market direction. There are some indications of a forecasted reprieve from the current high temps hitting key US growing zones. Local bids are location dependent and range from $18.50-$19.50/bu FOB farm. Dry bean planting delays or flooding is a significant factor on both sides of the border. Australian faba production is still forecasted to exceed the 10 yr. average. New crop faba bids are showing up around $15.00/bu FOB farm for a #2. Old crop feed faba bids are near $13/bu FOB farm and when old crop #2 demand periodically occurs, it is often near $16/bu FOB farm.
Barley has decided to follow suit with most commodities, now taking note of the recent moisture hitting many areas. This means feed barley is still trading, but values have dropped as the market sees less concern over producing a 2022/23 crop. Old crop bids are now sitting around that $8.25 – $8.50/bu FOB farm mark with a July – August delivery time frame, down 50-75 cents/bu since last week. New crop feed barley has also taken a step back, now trading around the $8.00/bu FOB farm range. Should the moisture continue to fall throughout the prairies, we suspect demand will only lessen in the coming days. If you were on the fence before, we highly suggest now is the time to think about taking the plunge. We are still not hearing much new in the way of malt barley, but calling in to place a firm target would be a smart move. Getting some new crop feed or malt signed up is not a bad pay, especially if we get back into average crop territory. Clearing up some early bin space and put a little cash flow into the pocket never hurts either.
Wheat prices are slipping as all markets seem to come off this week. Feed market bids have fallen below $13/bu on farm and in many areas are closer to $12.50/bu at time of writing. Wheat futures broke lower through the recent trading range on Tuesday, the lowest since March. Recent rains have been bumping up production projections in western Canada, harvest is picking up in the US and potentially large crops in France and Russia weigh on markets. Milling bids on #1 CWRS pushed down closer to $14/bu range today as the markets dropped. Current durum bids are showing $15.50/bu range in most areas of the province as a delivered in price, but obviously things are not on solid ground this week, so act quick if you’re looking to make a move.
Precipitation across Canada and US has started to show positive potential for production in chickpea acres over the last week. Growers are reporting favourable growth in their once stalled crops and the tone has gone from dismal to optimistic. While the rain has reflected on most markets with softening of values, Chickpeas are still flatline with old and new crop hovering at $0.50/lb FOB farm with new crop carrying an AOG. Globally, Mexico reported an increase in acres, but their production has come in as similar to last year, while Australian acres are reported down 28%. We are still seeing a lateral move on value. It is worth mentioning that chickpeas are quite reactive to adverse weather and there is a lot of weather between now and harvest. A production of high green count, small caliber etc. would certainly have an effect on where that market goes. Feed/sample values are bid around $0.30/lb FOB farm. If you are thinking of locking in a few acres, give a call to the office to discuss options.
Canola markets have been drifting south this week, but this yoyo movement has been pretty common the last several. The difference is we have favourable weather and markets are under the assumption there will be an average crop. Hard to justify those high levels of yesterday so expectation is a continued slip to more globally tradeable levels. Growers have been more apt to selling what is left in the bin with the thought that we may have seen the top becoming more real. Discussion around new crop has also been steadier and trade wires are recommending up to 25% to be committed. Flea beetles have been an area of concern and growers are encouraged to keep a closer than usual eye on conditions as crops develop at a quick rate. Globally, with the ever-increased rate of usage in renewable diesel sector, supply chain disruptions from Russia and Ukraine, and the potential of buying power from China, we are left with a continued yoyo movement. Board today is down $31.90/MT, translating to roughly $21.88/bu for July-November movement, and $20/bu for December with a slight uptick going into 2023.
The canaryseed market sees flat prices for another week. While other commodities seem to lose some pricing this week with recent rains, the canary market is holding. Does this suggest supply is tight enough that even a move to an average crop will not produce enough to cover demand? Old crop bids are still lingering around 49c/lb picked up, but the odd offer in the right freight area has triggered at 50c/lb, which is what this market has been doing over the last month. New crop values have picked up slightly over the last couple of weeks, and some acres can be put on the books at 42c/lb FOB farm with act of God. After showers that have covered a good part of the province, looking at locking in 10bu/acre at these values not only takes some risk off the table, but also guarantees some movement.
Flax prices have softened in the last week due to recent rains and buyer’s stretching inventory while waiting for new crop. For those with flax still in the bin, $33-$34.00/bu might still capture buying interest, while those with product in the dirt may still be able to capture bids at $30.00/bu picked up with act of God. These bids don’t seem to run deep, so if you are getting rains and the crop is coming along, signing up some acres will take some risk of falling markets off your plate. Some analysts feel like there will be adjustments to flax acres in the next StatsCan report, so this is something we must watch out for. The rain patterns in the western prairies have also hit the US flax growing areas in North Dakota and Montana. While the flax crop is still a ways from being harvested, the yield outlook seems to be improving. New crop at $30.00/bu is historically high and needs to be considered.
The prairie provinces’ oat acres are projected to increase roughly 17% over last year, which bodes well as carry out oat supplies are considerably light. That being said, buyers for the most part are pretty full on old crop and only entertaining the odd load here and there to round out limited needs. New crop bids have been fairly aggressive this last week, and buyers are still willing to work with growers on a rollover option into the next year if crop quality and quantities aren’t met. Bids have been posting around $7/bu FOB farm and maybe a bit more depending on movement window. The market has slowed pace this last while, so don’t be surprised to see a pull back here as well in the near term. Oats were a top contender many turned to due to wet conditions in predominate growing areas.
Mustard markets are still remarkably strong despite a big pullback in most other grain prices. If you have not yet booked new crop acres, we are suggesting you take a serious look at it. Rains have come to many areas now over the past week that grow mustard. Early reports seem positive as we talk to growers about crop conditions, despite a few instances of flea beetles and poor germination in certain pockets. That said, generally this year’s crop is miles ahead of last year. Spot prices have become very shaky and are subject to quick changes. Old crop yellow mustard is still indicated in the $1.50/lb range, brown sits somewhere around $2.00/lb and oriental likely still trades at $0.90-$1.00/lb, all FOB farm and moved before harvest. New crop mustard remains very strong with bids on yellow and brown still indicated around $0.95- 1.00/lb, with oriental only slightly behind around the $0.90/lb mark. These bids still include a full act of God and are quoted as FOB the farm. Grower targets continue to be our best marketing tool when it comes to mustard. Don’t leave money on the table as we have said before, it’s important to call your merchant to discuss using this system to secure the highest values.
Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.