Pricing remains elevated for old crop milling oats at $4.65/bu delivered in. These prices should maintain as long as the demand is still there. If you’re looking ahead to new crop, $3.50 – $3.60/bu delivered into Manitoba is the going rate right now with the latter for pushed out movement into 2021. We continue to also see feed hold value at $2.50 – $3.00/bu FOB farm. A little tidbit of information from StatsCan, they pegged the oat acres to jump up 6.5% from the average. Saskatchewan continues to lead the pack in acres increasing 3.3% to 1.9 million acres versus the total oat seeded acres at 3.8 million.
Flax prices remain similar to previous weeks even after the StatsCan report came out earlier this week. Flax acres have a projected increase from 2019 acres, however with the tight supplies going into the new crop year, prices are being supported. There are still firm bids for milling quality flax, at the same time, the exports are slowing, and the market will start to shift into new crop pricing. The only indication for new crop prices to trend up would be lower than expected yields or lower acreage than reported. On the other hand, upside could be limited to a bigger Black Sea crop. New crop flax prices are currently at $13.00/bu picked up with an act of God.
The pea market has hit a bit of a slump this week, which was expected. Old crop and new crop values have edged closer and right now it is normal to see a seasonal lull. It is getting harder to find $7/bu yellow peas today, with most bids closer to $6.75/bu FOB. Green peas are trading at $10.00/bu delivered and maple peas also edged lower to $8.00-8.50/bu FOB. The updated StatsCan report came out and peas are still sitting at 4.2 mil acres. Therefore, if China continues to import at current levels then our 2020/2021 supplies will end up being tighter. New crop values are at $7.00/bu on yellows and $8.50/bu on both green and maple peas.
StatsCan updated numbers are posted and wheat acres have increased compared to last year but have been adjusted lower from the May acreage report. Wheat is sitting at 25,188 mil acres with durum and winter wheat acres increasing and spring wheat down from last year. The feed market has been trading at competitive values, which resulted in a good chunk of lower quality wheat and durum getting moved into the feed lots. Feed values are trading around $5.00 – 5.40/bu FOB with no dockage being deducted. New crop feed wheat values are trading around $4.85/bu picked up. If you have some lower quality wheat and durum in the bins that you are wanting moved before the harvest rush, let us know as we still have some prompt movement options available.
Statcan reported chickpea acres slightly up from their original report in late May from 255k to 298k acres on June 29th. This does not come as a surprise as growers may have reduced their acres but not taken them out of rotation entirely. Positive weather reports are showing the drier areas of Western Canada are finally getting a drink from mother nature. Not sure if it is a little too late to reverse the yield but it is welcome. There is still a bullish feel to the market, but buyers are in no rush to push demand as we move through the motions of summer. Old crop values hold around $0.27-0.28/lb and new crop slightly below that with an AOG.
Canola futures start the week out strong with a $5/MT gain on Monday. Today (Tuesday) as we write, the market seems to be holding those gains. Support comes from lower planted acreage than 2019, despite StatsCan increasing their numbers from the march report. StatsCan currently has acreage pegged at 20.8MMT. Support today comes from strong soybean with China showing demand in that market. Producer bids delivered into plant are very similar to last week, sitting as high as $10.45/bu in northwest Sask and down to $10.15/bu range in southeast Sask. Call for a firm bid on your farm.
The canary seed market is still holding up pretty strong in recent weeks with bids at 27 to 28 cents/lb picked up on yard still available for summer timelines. New crop prices on canary are 25 to 26 cents on farm with act of God for Sept-Dec movement period. Historically, these are strong-ish spot and new crop values. We are seeing some sellers take advantage of these bids while the iron is hot, so to speak, as the canary market can be a very tough sell when said iron has gone cold. The seeded acreage report shows that canary acres are pretty much sideways from recent years at a projected 268,000 ac, slightly down from May’s 276,000. Seeded canary was 269,000 in 2018 and 243,000 in 2019 so you get the idea, sideways.
The soy complex recently followed corn markets higher despite concerns that more US acreage may go into soybeans this year. Strong crop conditions and potentially good yields may weigh on markets in the coming weeks. Over 160,000 bushels of soybeans were exported to China last week. While the movement was welcomed by U.S. exporters and growers, the volume remains woefully below Phase 1 commitment levels. Local soybean bids continue to hover around $10.00/bu picked up depending on location. New crop faba bids are in the range of $8.00/bu for #2 export quality. This is would be in line with long term new crop bids and represents an opportunity for growers. Firm prices available for any old crop dry bean inventory based on last year’s North American production shortfall. New largely contracted and acres are anticipated to be up 12% year over year.
The StatsCan report came out on Monday morning……and there was a big development concerning mustard. The May 7th report had acres at 395,000 and the new report on June 29th has acres at 257,000. This was a very surprising and dramatic drop which definitely raises some eyebrows. Is this a bit low? Either way, there has been a little bit of reaction in higher prices. Yellow mustard is now up at 38 to 39 cents for spot and new crop. Please show your merchant any offers at 40. Spot oriental mustard sits at 26 cents for Forge and 25 cents for Cutlass; summer movement from June to July. New crop is up at 30 cents FOB for Forge or Vulcan and up to 28 cents now for Cutlass. Brown trades have jumped to 30 cents FOB for spot and as high as 31 cents for new crop. Call your merchant with any offers on new crop and discuss the acreage report just out.
Feed barley prices have stayed strong this week again. Heavy and dry feed barley is still trading anywhere from $4.10-$4.50/bu FOB farm, with movement being pushed into August now. The majority of this barley is heading into southern Alberta so freight gets better the further west you are located. We have pricing available for light or tough barley with reasonable discounts to be applied as well. The malt industry is quiet for old crop, but we do have some buyers looking for a bit of Copeland at $4.60/bu delivered to the plant in south central Saskatchewan.
The StatsCan acreage report was released this week with no real surprises. With the increase in lentil prices just before seeding, the report saw a 500,000 acreage increase in seeded acres. The breakdown is 2,581,000 of reds, 907,000 large greens and 256,000 small greens. Reds saw the biggest increase while large greens remained the same as last year, and small green acres were reduced by 100,000 in Saskatchewan. Alberta saw an increase in reds lentil by approximately 80,000 acres, large greens at 40,000 acres with a decrease of 5,000 acres. These numbers will likely change a little come the August report and we expect the overall lentil number to increase slightly, with the major change in reds lentils. These numbers were expected by most in the industry therefor the market has not been affected this week. Prices remain flat with reds trading around the 31 cent market, large green lentils 31 for a #2, and small green lentils 29 cents. New crop pricing also remains stable with reds trading around 25-26 cents with an act of God, large green lentils 29-30 cents for a #2, small green lentils 27 cents.
Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.