Canaryseed remains to be one of the more stable crops as we move into June with values and demand virtually unchanged. Old crop canaryseed is triggering around $0.37/lb FOB farm, but it appears the tonnage left on farm is not overly abundant. Buyers, however, don’t appear to be, “throwing their backs out,” stretching for product, but rather are happy to sit and wait for offers to come to the table. New crop values are posted in the $0.36/lb FOB farm range with an act of God included. Given the current spread (or lack thereof) between old and new crop, locking in what’s left in the bin is a power play move right now. If looking for a bit over the posted market value, we can always try a firm target as you never know if/when buyers need to cover off sales or shortages.
Seems like quite a few world wheat events to report on today. For Canada, diplomatic ties with Saudi Arabia have been restored, reopening a market for Canadian wheat and barley. While Saudi Arabia has a focus on barley, they are expected to import up to 5MMT of wheat, which will be sourced from the EU, Black Sea, Australia, and now, Canada. Secondly, one of China’s main wheat growing provinces, Henan, experienced serious rainfall and flooding at the end of May. With more rainfall expected and estimates between 30-50 million tonnes of affected wheat, China appears to be a favourite for the world’s largest wheat importer this year. This bodes well for Canadian wheat, as China is already the top buyer of Canadian wheat through 2022-2023. Looking locally, wheat bids have been scarce. Many mills continue to have coverage until new crop comes off, placing CWRS bids in the $9.60/bu delivered SK range for November. Feed markets continue to buy, but movement is being pushed further out, with bids between $9.00-9.60/bu FOB farm in SK. For growers close to feedlot alley, there are opportunities to sell at $10.50/bu delivered into Lethbridge. With that being said, opportunities for different types of wheat continue to pop up, so reach out to your merchant and let us explore a few options for you. Turning to durum, Italian harvest is firing up and they continue to see rain, which will affect quality. With the majority of Canadian durum areas getting a good start due to timely rains, the situation in Italy shows promise for Canadian product that grades well in the fall. On the downside, it appears Italy will have adequate supplies of their own low-grade durum, which will push lower graded Canadian product to trade at a strong discount. Pricewise today, durum continues to drop. Old crop is trading for $10.75/bu delivered SK while new crop trades for $9.75/bu delivered SK.
Yellow pea bids remain unchanged from last week, trading for $9.50/bu FOB farm or $10.00/bu delivered SK. A few higher priced opportunities have appeared in specific locations, including SE Sask and MB, so reach out if you are looking to move the last of your yellows. New crop yellows have a bit of a range depending on contract choice – AOG contracts are available at $9.00-10.00/bu FOB farm/delivered, while those looking for higher can sign for $10.50/bu delivered SK on a DDC. Green bids continue to hold strong, but we have heard mumbling of oversea buyers quieting down. Old crop continues to trade at $14.00/bu FOB farm/delivered in SK, with new crop values starting to improve. Multiple buyers are beginning to look for new crop green peas, with our strongest bids at $13.00/bu FOB farm for Aug-Sept movement. Maples are trading between $15.00-16.00/bu FOB farm/delivered in SK, with new crop trading between $14.00-15.00/bu depending on freight and contract choice. Looking at world markets, the development of El Niño looks to affect Australian pulses. While Aussie seeded acreage is only down slightly, pea production is expected to be down 26% due to the drier conditions.
Australian canola production has had ample effect on the market, and therefore prices, as the EU feels there is an oversupply. As in previous weeks, the prices have been on a downward trend. At time of writing, old crop sales are in the $15- $15.50/bu delivered range, while prices for after harvest range from $14.00 – $14.30/bu delivered. May futures were the lowest since 2021 following a decline in other vegetable oil prices. The extension of deals done in the Black Sea region also contributed to prices slipping lower. Questions have arisen about increasing Canada’s ability to meet higher crush demand. Analysts feel the growth would only mean additional domestic use or possibly products moving back and forth between Canada and the US.
Flax prices are mostly sideways this week, but the amount of buyer’s actually interested in taking any product are slim. Price indications are around $14.50/bu delivered give or take, depending on area for movement in the next couple of months. With the majority of flax destined for China supplied by the Black Sea region, Canadian exports have been moderately slow. Even with seeded acres estimated to be down for the 2023/24 crop year, a large carryover will be seen, and it comes as no surprise that the prices on flax will likely stay sideways for the unforeseeable future. If you need to move flax out before harvest, now is the time to sign it up. If you have the patience, then it might be best to ride the market out and see what happens six months down the road.
The chickpea market is still on flatline as seeding wraps up and growers start to take a look at what is left in the bin. Bids have not really moved over the last several weeks, but if there was an uptick in sellers, we feel it could very easily soften. Very few growers have locked in new crop values despite several conversations on the topic. We’re not sure exactly what the hesitation is there given the act of God clause, but it is not a priority today in grower minds. Old crop pricing sits somewhere around $0.50/lb FOB farm for #2 or better quality in select locations and new crop contracts are around $0.48/lb FOB farm including an act of God. Feed markets have been very quiet as well with buyers showing bids around $0.30-$0.35/lb FOB farm depending on the downgrading factor, and those bids have not changed in months. Typically, we will see peaks and valleys in buying, but it has been relatively quiet the last several weeks. There are talks of almost “too much rain” in chickpea growing areas, so it is something to keep an eye on regarding quality concerns. Call if you need any firm bids or just want to go over marketing options.
Oat prices remain unchanged this week with opportunities in the milling market next to nonexistent. On the bright side, feed options are available, which look surprisingly decent when compared to the few and far between milling values you do see. Feed bids are sitting around $3.50/bu picked up on farm in the majority of the province with areas of freight advantage getting a little kiss above those levels. Obviously, with the poor values on oats over the winter, and thin prospects into the summer, a decent amount of #2 milling oats are moving into the feed market, but it’s not an overwhelming amount, so opportunities are still available. The carryover into new crop still looks cumbersome and thus far, the production of the smaller seeded acres here still looks strong, so it seems like it will be some time before these prices work their way out of the gutter. We hope the increasing milling industry in Canada continues on its current trajectory to secure some much-needed markets for this high yielding crop.
Export volumes and the weather forecast are the current influencers of the soybean market. These factors have created a bit of a split in old and new crop values. There may be precipitation in the forecast for eastern soybean growing regions. Analysts anticipate a net gain in both old and new crop export sales for Thursday’s upcoming report. Local bids are still holding up quite well at $17.50-$18.00/bu FOB farm, location dependent. Dry bean bids are stubbornly unchanged. From a larger perspective, the market remains well supported, just generally inactive. Feed quality fabas continue to be supported by pet food values. Local bids with export quality #2 faba bids being in the range of $13.50-$14.00/bu FOB farm and feed quality values are near $10.00-$10.50/bu FOB farm location, dependent.
Lentils continue to lead the way in the pulse markets. Old and new crop green lentils saw gains once again this week. Old crop large green lentils have traded as high 61 cents/lb on firm offer, while new crop has traded as high 54 cent FOB Farm with an AOG. Small greens are quoted at 50-51 cents/lb FOB farm for old crop and 47 cents for new crop. Reds remain consistent at 33-34 cents for old and new crop, but trade remains light. Buyers are really trying to fill the last of 2022/23 crop year needs on large green lentils and growers sitting on product are urged to take a look at the opportunities present. One buyer informed us this week that once their needs are met for this year, the old crop price will start to back off. As the cereal and oilseed markets keep losing ground from their early highs, maybe it is time to consider taking advantage of the good returns in lentils.
Barley bids continue to hold their own for another week. Old crop pricing ranges from $7.25-$8/bu depending on farm location with freight being the biggest kicker. New crop bids sit around $6-$6.25/bu for a deferred delivery contract (DDC), meaning no AOG, for movement in the last quarter of the year. Interesting news coming out of Australia as El Niño patterns indicate dryness on the horizon with expectations of barley production dropping 30%. It is expected that Europe and the Black Sea would be the biggest benefactors of this shortfall. Closer to home, Canada and Saudi Arabia have restored ag trade after a tweet in 2018 had ended the relationship; the Saudi’s are the second largest importer of barley behind China. How much trade actually happens might be a bit hit and miss, but this could add an additional home for Canadian product as China and Australia mend fences.
Mustard markets remain generally unchanged this week, with the focus still seeming to be on old crop yellow mustard. We have been speaking with quite a few growers and on farm reports suggest a decent start for mustard crops so far. Timely rains have hit some of the driest areas and growers seem excited for the year to come. Germination appears to be a non-issue for now, but the battle with flea beetles and grasshoppers has started. New crop mustard prices have continued their downward slide and most new crop mustard bids are really just indications at this point. That said, there is still some purchase interest out there, so call your merchant to discuss options. As mentioned, spot yellow mustard seems to have the most buyer interest again this week and has been catching bids around $0.85/lb or slightly higher if you’re in the right area. To capitalize on the best value, it’s important to talk to your merchant as prices are volatile.
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