What can we say about the pea market that hasn’t already been discussed? Much of the conversation still revolves around India’s decision on the extension of reduced import tariffs as well as monitoring demand from China. Both these factors will influence yellow pea pricing, though to what extent is unknown. Anticipated increases in pea acres this year, particularly in green and maple peas, add to the uncertainty. Currently, old crop yellow peas are priced at $13/bu FOB  crop and $10 – 10.50/bu for new crop with an Act of God (AOG). Green peas command prices of $17 – 17.50/bu FOB based on a max 3% bleach spec, while new crop prices hover around $13.00/bu on farm with AOG. Higher bleached old crop green pea demand is still seen as well and we encourage growers to reach out with their specs for firm bids. Spot maple pea bids range from $25-26/bu, while new crop is indicated at $18-19/bu, both location and variety dependent.

Mustard values seem to have stabilized after a period of volatility. Prices have remained relatively flat for a few weeks, signaling a sense of calm in the market. With an anticipated reduction in acreage this year, attention turns to final planting decisions and just how many acres will hit the dirt as we approach mid-March. Spot pricing for yellow mustard remains steady in the low 50-cent per pound FOB farm while new crop is indicated at 48 cents on the high end, including an Act of God clause. Brown and oriental varieties continue to be quoted in the 40 cent per pound range for spot and production contracts. We still have a good supply of all types of certified mustard seed, though delivery schedules are being made, so if you’ve been undecided, now is the time to act. Starting with high quality seed increases the chances of achieving a #1 grade. Reach out to your merchant to discuss further.

Barley values continue to hold, but uncertainty looms over how long this will last. Old crop values still range from $4.50 – $5.00/bu FOB farm depending on area and delivery timeline into the feed market. Malt barley bids, both spot and production, are scarce. Maltsters seem content with current old crop purchases to carry them into the next harvest and reports suggest they have secured decent new crop coverage as well. This week, there have been soft indications of $5.00/bu FOB farm for new crop feed barley and it is advisable to consider these values. As always, these new crop programs are Deferred Delivery Contracts (DDC) and do not include an AOG. Considering the expected carry-over from the 2023 crop year, significant upward movement in new crop pricing is unlikely.

Big numbers are emerging from StatsCan regarding chickpea acres, with estimates showing a 27% increase over last year. Export volume reports have been robust, raising questions about ending stocks and highlighting discrepancies in production estimates over the past few years. Globally, Mexican acres are up, but reports of poor growing conditions suggest potential yield effects. Australia’s weak exports hint at supply issues, while conflicting reports emerge from India, with government data indicating reduced chickpea planting compared to informational sources. In essence, the market is a mixed bag of uncertainties. Values remain unchanged from last week, and while selling opportunities exist, it’s advisable to offer out bushels rather than solely seeking the best bid.

According to this week’s StatsCan report, 2024/25 Canadian flax acres are estimated to be 16% lower compared to last year. Unsurprisingly, the anticipated carry-over into 2024/25 is also expected to be lower. Exports in the first quarter of 2024 have been relatively quiet, with the majority of Canadian flax supply still heading to the US. Internationally, soft Chinese demand has led to reduced movement of Kazakh flax into China. For those holding flax in bins, bids of $15.00-$15.50/bu picked up are still possible for select freight areas, contingent on delivery timeframe. Analysts don’t foresee any significant rallies as we head into spring and unless global supplies are reduced, prices are expected to trend sideways.

Canaryseed markets maintain the sideways trajectory they’ve been on for some time. New crop values persist at 34 to 35 cents per pound as a picked-up-in-the-yard price with an act of God clause. Seeded acreage reports predict just shy of 300 thousand acres of canaryseed, but with weakness in other cereals, canary may attract a bit more attention yet. We suggest canary as a decent option for hedging sales in the fall with a contract including an act of God clause, as such contracts aren’t available for every crop, making it a safer play. Spot trade remains at 40 to 41 cents a pound FOB depending on the area, this week, and growers continue to make incremental sales at these levels without flooding the market, thus maintaining stability for the time being.

Once again, the oat market sees little change from last week. This week’s StatsCan report estimated a 21.6% increase in oat acres for 2024, pegging the crop at 3.1 million acres versus 2.5 million acres last year. Analysts dub oats the acreage winner for this report, but some believe the estimated increase is understated, possibly leading to further increases. Local markets witness soft demand, with buyers having already met current and near-future needs. Old crop values sit between $4.30-4.75/bu for milling quality and summer movement. Feed oats trade around $3.75/bu FOB farm for spring movement. While new crop pricing remains elusive, if you’re planning acres and have a firm sell price in mind, consider reaching out to your merchant with an offer to be among the first to secure some acres should a window of opportunity arise.

What not long ago felt impossible is unfolding before our eyes. The canola market has been experiencing a modest upward trend over the past ten days. The looming question is whether this trend will persist. The rally seems driven by China’s purchase of Canadian canola, something they have been avoiding for a while now. China wields significant influence over markets but tend to be value purchasers. Should futures values continue to rise, the question arises: at what point will they reduce Canadian origin purchases? With ample canola still on farm in Western Canada, it would take a rapid export pace to deplete stocks. Therefore, making some sales during these market rallies is advisable for those still holding a higher percentage of their production. May futures currently stand at $628/MT, up from $596/MT at this time last week.

The wheat market has exhibited some volatility this week. Despite initial market pressure as China balked on their third red winter wheat sale with the US, there was a brief uptick in prices. However, bids have generally remained subdued due to the large global supply. Moving forward, challenges are anticipated in this market, making it crucial to capitalize on any temporary market rallies. While total wheat acres are forecasted to decrease by roughly 2%, strong production expectations may cause total supply to climb by a couple of percentage points. Overall, a cloud of uncertainty hangs over this market. A #1 CWRS 13.5 protein is currently being bid at approximately $8.70/bu delivered into central Sask, with feed bids holding in the $7 range. Shifting focus to durum, the outlook isn’t much brighter. Increased production from Turkey, Kazakhstan and Russia is putting pressure on the market, with some end-users opting for wheat over durum due to price disparities. Consequently, expect to see more “regular wheat” entering the durum market, potentially leading to durum pricing aligning with spring wheat, especially if this year’s yield is strong. Grey clouds loom over this market.

The lentil markets experienced a slip this week, particularly affecting large green lentils. The drop in large green lentil prices appears to be a reaction to the projected seed acres released by StatsCan on Monday. The report suggests a 4% increase in acres from last year, although it’s worth noting that this data was collected in December. Since then, there has been a surge in new crop pricing, causing a considerable shift in seeding intentions. The trade now believes that seed area for lentils will be 10% or higher than last year, with the only limiting factor being seed availability. New crop large green lentils have lost 4 cents since Monday, while old crop prices remain stable at 80-82 cents. Small green lentils have not been as severely affected as large greens, with prices for new crop remaining in the 50-cent range with AOG and old crop at 80 cents. Red lentils struggle to gain traction, as the market finds cheaper and closer sources than Canadian product. The red lentil market is also impacted by India reducing imports due to expectations of a large crop in 2024. Old crop is trading in the 32-34 cent range, FOB farm, with new crop indicated at 29-31 cents FOB with an AOG.

The soybean market continues to largely trade based on weather reports, given the “much ado about nothing” USDA report from last Friday. Some concern over South American production levels have been offering momentum to this market, however, now there is a bit of a tug-o-war between South American pending harvest pressure and recent heavy rains threatening to impede harvest or perhaps quality. Bids are in the range of $14.25-$14.75/bu FOB farm, location dependent. New crop Canadian faba acres are anticipated to see an uptick though new crop bids for #2 quality tannin varieties remain in the $10 FOB farm range.  Old crop #2 faba bids are quoted around $11.50-$12.00/bu FOB farm, while feed quality values are near $10.00-$11.00/bu FOB farm, location dependent. Dry bean exports to Mexico have bolstered the market. Pinto and black beans are fetching attractive bids, with black beans leading the way and pintos a little slower to respond. New crop great northern opportunities exist in the mid-50¢ range picked up on farm with AOG.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.