Mustard markets remain fairly stable this week with spot and new crop bookings rolling in at a much slower pace. More accumulative snow was seen from the winter storm that streaked across southern Saskatchewan over the weekend, offering better planting moisture even if just marginal, which is seen as a positive for the upcoming crop. Spot values remain in the $0.90/lb range for yellow mustard, and the $0.82-$0.85/lb range for brown and oriental. It is very important to talk to your merchant as these prices fluctuate daily depending on needs of the buyer. New crop pricing remains the in the $0.60’s for oriental and brown, with yellow showing bids in the $0.75/lb today, all including an AOG for full crop year movement. Even with softer new crop values now, all three classes of mustard are showing returns with great margin rankings according to analysts. Pair that with an expected large increase in acres and growers are still encouraged to get the first 10bpa locked in. Seed sales are wrapping up and our supplier has begun treating and packaging. There may still be a chance to book some last-minute product at this late stage, so talk to us if you are in need.
Lentil markets remain strong this week mainly due to speculation that the Indian pigeon pea crop will be smaller than expected. Other factors include reduced Canadian acres and limited shipping capacity out of Australia, all working together to provide a much-welcomed uptick in bids. Green lentils will see a pricing benefit from the poor pigeon pea crop, while reds will benefit from Australian news and speculation of reduced acres. Large green lentil prices are fairly stable at 53 cents/lb FOB for old crop with the odd target triggering slightly higher. New crop large green pricing ranges from buyer to buyer with the highest trades taking place at 48 cent/lb FOB with an act of God. Red lentils have a handful of buyers looking to purchase old crop at 34-35 cents/lb FOB farm, while new crop trades as high as 33 cents FOB farm with act of God. Small green lentil spot bids have hit 50 cents/lb again this week and targets at 45 cents for new crop have also triggered. Of all the forementioned bids, new crop large greens have seen the most uptick as many growers see the expected increase in acres next season. All options for lentils right now look better than only a month or two ago. We encourage growers to take a hard look at these values and not miss the opportunities that present themselves today.
Canaryseed markets remain virtually unchanged this week without much new to report. Old crop is still trading in the $0.36 – $0.38/lb FOB farm range witch contracts carrying some quicker movement options along with them. This quick shipping window can offer growers prompt cash flow at historically high values and some are taking advantage of it. If you are looking to catch a cent or two more, throwing your product up on firm offer is not necessarily a bad idea. Bids have been fairly comfortable in their trading range, so if your target doesn’t trigger, then at least you have reassurance you didn’t leave money on the table and you can still sell at today’s posted values. New crop bids also come with little change this week. Current quoted values sit in the $0.34 – $0.35/lb FOB farm with contracts including an act of God. We’ve said it before, and we will say it again: This is a great program to get something locked in while taking the risk of market volatility and production shortages off your plate. Early movement + early cash flow + good price = Great farm management skills!
When looking at crop rotation for next year, large Kabuli chickpeas are one of the leaders in gross margin profit. Some analysts predict a 39% increase in acres compared to last year, going from 234K to 325K. This is still above the average on a 5-year high, with 19/20 crop year being 392K acres. Spot contract values in 2019/20 for a #2 large Kabuli were high teens to mid 20’s, while production contracts were being booked at $0.26-0.29/lb FOB farm with an AOG. Today, growers are booking spot #2 large Kabuli’s at $0.48-0.53/lb for old crop and $0.45/lb new crop with an AOG, both FOB farm. While, of course, global supply has a factor in value, it cannot be ignored that right now, in your back yard, chickpea values are strong despite heading into a potentially larger production year. Feed and pet food markets have not wavered from their values in weeks and while the demand is always there, it is not strong enough to push higher bids. Serious consideration should be taken with chickpea production contracts and how those pencils into your book. Call your agent for details.
Flax prices are down slightly again this week, which comes as no surprise at this point. We have been writing about the competition in flax pricing from the Black Sea region for several months now and the same story continues. It’s no shock that prices overseas are much cheaper than domestic values and that product continues to get sold into the Chinese and European markets. Market analysts expect Canadian flax acres to be down in 2023, which could help offset some of the expected larger carryover. If flax production in the US sees a decline in 2023 as well, we may see more demand from our neighbours to the south, which would be supportive for markets. Whether or not that happens is to be seen, but until then, flax prices will likely remain under pressure going into 2023/24. For those with flax in the bins, call our office as prices are ever changing; at time of writing, we are seeing $16.75/bu delivered.
There’s no way to put it lightly, the canola market looks like it has just gone ten rounds with Mike Tyson in his prime; futures have been on a steady decline all week. A large Australian rapeseed crop has been supplying major areas of the world while Canadian canola was considered expensive for a very long time. That, paired with what is expected to be a huge Brazilian soybean crop, is resulting in the perfect storm for our canola markets to fall off in a big way. At time of writing, May futures are at $754/MT, which is down roughly $60/MT in just one week. Local bids have slipped to around the $17.25-$17.50/bu mark delivered to plant, with basis levels remaining relatively unchanged. July futures are similar and sit at $751/MT representing a slight discount for movement into the summer. New crop bids have followed suit and have dropped down to around $16/bu delivered to plant. We’ll need to see the market stop the bleeding before we can assess the total damage and make plans moving forward.
A decision should be coming down from the WTO sometime in Mar or Apr regarding the China/Australia dispute over the barley tariff. More recently, the two sides have been communicating which is viewed as positive when it comes to relations. Whether terms are adhered to or not is another story depending on how the WTO comes down. The longer this stays unresolved, the longer Canadian barley markets reap the benefit. Bids in Saskatchewan range anywhere from $7.50 – $8.15/bu picked up on the farm with the latter quoted for product along the #1 highway near the SK/AB boarder. New crop values are also holding strength with bids ranging from $6.40 to $7.00/bu picked up in SK pending farm proximity to feedlots. Locking in a bit of new crop grabs you some cashflow at harvest time, along with a bit of bin space, and although these contracts do not include an act of God, conservative sales are still encouraged.
Soybean futures are facing headwinds this morning due to sluggish U.S. export pace, Brazil’s harvest, and concerns over Chinese purchases due to swine fever. Despite these issues, local bids are still holding up quite well at $18.50-$19.00/bu FOB farm, location dependent. Local dry bean bids in Mexico have shown a promising increase due to lower production. New crop dry bean contracts are available with price points ranging from 46¢/lb on higher volume more common classes to 70¢/lb on specific specialty classes. Canadian faba exports have been light, largely due to competitive export pressures from countries such as Australia. Australia is reporting their 3rd largest faba crop in the last 10yrs. Feed quality fabas continue to be supported by pet food values. Local bids on export quality #2 faba’s are being quoted in the range of $13.50-$14.00/bu FOB farm, while feed quality values are near $10.00-$10.50/bu FOB farm, location dependent.
It’s anticipated that peas will see a 3rd straight year of declining planted acres, with most of it incurred in the largest segment, yellow peas. Coupled with a decline in planted acres, is the anticipation that carryout will remain in single digit percentages. Exports are running behind what’s deemed to be “normal” and can largely be attributed to modest Chinese demand. Local yellow pea bids are in the range of $12.00-$12.50/bu FOB farm, location dependent this week. Green peas are hanging in there at $14.00/bu delivered or $13.50 FOB farm in many areas across SK and AB. New crop pea programs remain largely unattractive and this has kept trade to a minimum. Call your merchant for details on today’s new crop programs.
It’s difficult to find any positive news in oat markets these days. The supply is large, and the bids are few. Milling markets seem to be mostly filled up for the foreseeable future and options for emptying bins are pretty limited. Feed quality trades have slipped below $3.50/bu on farm in many areas of the province, with homes for oats as feedstock being limited. Worth noting in feed oat markets is the need for a good bushel weight as the discount for light oats is drastic, and the prices you see fall apart quickly if your product is underweight. New crop options are few and far between, but if you need to get something on the books, we suggest possibly putting some offers out in the $3.50/bu range FOB farm, which might be in the cards to facilitate trade.
Wheat has made gains to a one-week high after last week’s slippage. Spot prices for CWRS 12.5 pro and CWSWS delivered Saskatoon sit at $11.32/bu and $11.52/bu respectively. Spot durum bids continue to look similar to weeks past, at $12.25-12.50/bu delivered various plants in Sask, with new crop trading around $11.50/bu on DDC contracts. Spot feed wheat delivered to Lethbridge comes in between $11.17-11.30/bu. Watching the world markets, many are paying close attention as the Black Sea Grain Initiative between Ukraine and Russia is only a few days away from expiry. Moscow has proposed a 60-day renewal, but with that proposal being only half the duration of the last two terms of the agreement, Ukraine has countered and wants to see the deal extended for a full year. With the quickly approaching expiry, some importers like Saudi Arabia, Tunisia and Algeria have made a push for wheat imports with recent reports of tenders totaling 2MMT.
Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.