The red lentil market saw a slight change this week, particularly in new crop values, which have started to firm up slightly. We can now secure 33 cents/lb delivered with an Act of God on 10 bu/acre to a couple different locations. Those looking for FOB farm pricing are encouraged to reach out to their merchant. Otherwise, the lentil market has remained largely unchanged. Old crop red lentils are priced at 33-34 cents picked up. Meanwhile, old crop green lentils appear to have reached their peak, with #2 large greens at 80-82 cents and #1 small greens at 80 cents, both picked up on farm. New crop green bids continue to retract as buyers are mostly satisfied with their previously signed-up acres. New crop large greens might still find a market at 54 cents delivered, but 50 cents picked up is a common bid. Similarly, new crop small greens are also seeing bids at 50 cents picked up. If you haven’t already, we highly recommend locking in 10bpa on your green lentil acres. With the expected increase in acreage, there’s a likelihood of significant green lentil stocks on farms if we achieve average yields.

Mustard prices have remained steady for both old crop and new crop, with minimal changes in yellow, brown, or oriental varieties. New crop yellow mustard continues to be offered and purchased in the $0.50/lb price range, including an Act of God, while old crop triggers around the same range. Although there has been some discussion around oriental and brown mustard, penciling in the $0.40/lb FOB farm value appears to be a safe bet. A reasonable firm offer on these varieties may catch buyers’ attention today, but it seems that the desired tonnage remains relatively soft. Given the timeframe from now until the 2024 harvest, it seems prudent to avoid waiting for a significant price surge. We still have a decent supply of certified mustard available, but deliveries are being planned. Therefore, if you’re on the fence, it’s highly suggested to make a decision and avoid any potential increase in freight costs.

Producers are facing a dilemma in deciding what to grow as they observe slight fluctuations in the wheat market, generally trending downward from desirable levels. It is predicted that acres will likely decrease in both the US and Canada for the upcoming seeding season. This decline is partly due to the lackluster value of wheat, intense global competition, which is leaving bushels in the bins, and, to a lesser extent, growing conditions. With reduced acres, it’s evident that this could impact values in the latter part of 2024. Currently, #1 CWRS 13.5 protein is being bid at approximately $8.65/bu delivered into central Sask, with feed bids holding in the $7 range. The durum market mirrors a similar story, with plenty of bushels left in the bin from last year, limited current overseas interest, and growers deliberating on acreage decisions. While there is a feeling that there is more potential for a rally in durum prices, growers remain uncertain about the market’s direction compared to spring wheat.

Oat prices have remained stagnant, fluctuating between $4.00-$4.50/bu delivered for old crop, while new crop prices hover around $3.75/bu delivered. This lack of movement is primarily attributed to demand rather than supply. Globally, oat supplies are lower than average, and heading into the 2024/25 year, Canadian oat stocks have minimal cushion. Experts note a decline of approximately 12% in the use of milling oats in North America, largely due to inflation costs. The outlook for seeded acres this year is positive, with expectations of increases not only in Canada but also in the UK, EU, and Australia. However, favorable weather conditions and decent yields will be crucial in preventing the market from becoming chaotic due to such low ending stocks. Organic oats continue to see demand, with prices at $10.25/bu delivered into Manitoba.

In the barley market, trade activity has been light this week. While bids have remained steady, and possibly slightly stronger in some regions, overall activity has been subdued as buyers and sellers remain relatively inactive. Improved weather conditions and the onset of road bans typically lead to a slowdown in trade during this time. Most areas of the province can secure $5/bu picked up on farm for both old crop and fall sales, while stronger values are observed to the west, benefiting from freight advantages to feedlot alley. Malting markets remain quiet, with new and old crop bids proving elusive. Factors such as strong corn imports and weak barley exports contribute to the pricing challenges compared to recent years. Lower seeded acres may alleviate some pricing issues, but the extent of this impact remains uncertain.

The pea markets continue to show stability, with only minor changes compared to last week. There’s increased activity in new crop pricing, with buyers showing interest across all classes of peas. Maple pea pricing is leading the way, ranging from $20 to $21 FOB depending on variety, with an Act of God clause. Green peas are priced between $13.00 and $13.50 FOB with an Act of God, although values are slightly lower compared to earlier offered contracts. Yellow peas are trading in the range of $11.00 to $11.25 delivered with an Act of God. For old crop maples, buyers are still interested in purchasing, but prefer to see firm offers. Green peas trade between $17.50 and $18.00 FOB farm, depending on movement and location. Yellow peas, on the other hand, are mostly trading at $12.50/bu, with a few contracts triggering slightly higher on firm offer. Pea markets are expected to remain stable in the short term as they await further news from India regarding the pea tariff. The India Rabi season will soon head into its harvest, which may temporarily pause market activity until production numbers are known. Additionally, it’s important to monitor reports on the completion of the Pakistan harvest and the upcoming China south harvest in May/June for further market insights.

Canaryseed pricing remains unchanged this week, with demand holding steady as buyers continue to seek supplies. Sellers are meeting the needs of buyers, resulting in steady trading activity. Spot trades are occurring at 40 cents picked up on farm for movement in April/May. With trade volumes unsubstantial, the market remains fairly stable. Some analysts speculate that StatsCan’s projected seeded acres may be overstated, suggesting that actual acres may be closer to last year’s numbers. That said, canaryseed compares favorably to other crops in terms of profitability, so a slight increase in acres is likely to occur. New crop contracts are currently trading at 35 cents per pound picked up on farm, including an act of God clause covering drought. Additionally, we have seed available, so be sure to discuss your options with your merchant.

Canola prices are experiencing a decline today ahead of the USDA’s report and the Easter long weekend. At the time of writing, May futures have dropped by roughly $20/mt compared to the previous week, now sitting at $626.1/MT. This drop is not unexpected, especially considering the pullback in bean values as the Brazilian bean crop is nearly 70% harvested. According to StatsCan numbers from February, crush was up by 10.6% compared to the same time last year, which may have influenced market sentiment. Additionally, new crop values have also taken a hit, with November futures coming in at $643.9/MT. Given the expectation for a decent carryover of old crop tonnage into the new crop year, finding pricing bumps in the market like last week can be significant. We encourage growers to take advantage of small price rallies in this market and capitalize on better returns.

The flax market has seen notable activity over the past two weeks, with strong bids carrying over into the week leading up to Easter weekend. From March 10-15th, Week 33 of the shipping year, reports indicate the highest number of flax deliveries in 23/24 at 5500 MT. Internationally, the European Commission has proposed an import tariff on Russian and Belarus oilseeds. While not yet imposed, if established, the EU could shift some attention back to Canadian supplies. Depending on the timeframe of a potential tariff, both old and new crop prices might receive support, though only time will tell how this scenario unfolds. Buyers have been active in purchasing old crop brown flax at $16.00/bu FOB farm for spring movement, with some smaller purchases on yellow at $22.00/bu FOB farm in SE Saskatchewan. New crop values have remained unchanged from recent weeks, at $15.50/bu FOB farm or $16.00/bu delivered on brown, while values for yellow are still pending for the fall.

Chickpeas are facing challenges this week in attracting bids for both new and old crop. Old crop prices have weakened, with indications at $0.52/lb FOB farm on product with 30% 9mm sizing. New crop values are becoming harder to find as many buyers await India’s harvest news. In recent weeks, India has observed a decline in domestic kabuli prices, suggesting a larger harvest. Similarly, Mexico had anticipated larger acres for this year’s harvest, but unfavorable growing conditions have led to vegetation maps predicting lower yields. While Canada’s acres are expected to increase, the sudden lack of bids will likely limit this increase. New crop values today are indicated around $0.40/lb FOB farm on 10bu with Act of God.

The soybean market has retraced some of its gains from last week, with domestic traders adjusting positions ahead of the USDA Prospective Planting report on Thursday. It is anticipated that US soybean acreage will increase by 3 million acres compared to 2023 planting. Additionally, Brazil continues to revise down its soybean export forecasts, further reducing to 495.7 million bushels. Local soybean prices are currently in the range of $14.00-$14.50/bu depending on the farm’s location. Meanwhile, there is an expectation of an uptick in Canadian faba acres for the new crop season. Bids for #2 quality tannin varieties are around $10/bu FOB farm.  Old crop #2 faba bids range from $11.50-$12.00/bu FOB farm, while feed quality values hover near $10.00-$11.00/bu FOB farm, depending on the location. Dry bean exports to Mexico have strengthened the market, with attractive bids for pinto and black beans. Among these, black beans are leading the way, while pintos are responding at a slightly slower pace. Opportunities for new crop great northern beans are available in the low 60¢ range, picked up on farm with an Act of God clause.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.