Barley continues to be one of the most stable commodities this past year and will remain that way with values still unchanged this week, sitting at, “sell,” levels. Old crop feed barley bids continue to be quoted in the $7.25 – $8.00/bu FOB farm range depending on area and shipping window. A potential price pull back still looms in the back of most minds with anticipation of a coming resolution between Australian and Chinese trade disputes, but so far, those concerns have yet to come to fruition. On the new crop side of things, indications around $6.00 – $6.50/bu FOB farm still ring true, but we suspect buyers might engage on reasonable firm offers posted over and above the listed values. Not much is seen in the way of malt markets on either old or new crop, but if you have something firm to show buyers, we think they just might be willing to entertain some purchases. With decent starting moisture and more falling throughout the prairies over the past couple of days, we can only hope it gives us some strong conditions to get the barley crop headed in the right direction.
Lentil markets remain stable this week with no change in pricing. StatsCan is stating that the ending stock for March 31, 2023, was 900,000 tonnes, which is 14% lower than last year, and estimations show that these could be the lowest stock since 2014-15. Our buyers feel that this number may improve a little with beliefs that on farm product has been underestimated. None the less, supply will still be tight. So why do prices remain stable? World production is the main reason; Australia is still trying to work through their supply, Turkey’s crop looks to be in okay condition, and this is the time of year when sales and prices normally soften. Low ending stocks and reduced acres should help keep this market stable moving forward. This market could run before fall due to weather concerns, and/or if acres are further reduced than already estimated.
The flax market has been a little more active this past week with brown flax sales going through at $15/bu FOB farm. Most of the flax trading has still been for movement in early summer, but things are filling up day by day, and most other bids are closer to $14/bu once the current opportunities fill. Acres look to be low, likely lower than the StatsCan initial estimate of 689,000ac to what many presume will be sub 600,000 when it’s all said and done. Even with lower acres, ample carryover and lackluster export opportunities look to keep a cap on this market based on today’s picture. We will need to see flax exports perk up a bit more in the last few months of the crop year to see any significant price change as it looks right now, which is possible if sales to China open up a bit more. New crop pricing options are quiet for the time being, but we are always accepting offers to put on the table for buyers to consider. Give us a call if you have a number in mind to start some sales.
Wheat pricing made some gains earlier this week with indications on #1 HRS at $11.06/bu delivered for July/ August. Reports suggest exports from Canada are ahead of the five-year average, according to analysts. The lackluster U.S. HRW crop has also helped support the price rally. While seeding has just begun in most areas, most data for yields will be modified July – August, during the critical weather months. For now, predictions of an 8% increase in wheat acres along with a slightly higher yield than the last five years, could put a drag on pricing. On the flip slide, durum markets took a slide, and with some overseas tenders getting sale and the strength in the Canadian dollar, it only pushed Canadian prices lower into the $10.25-$10.50/bu range.
StatsCan’s chickpea acreage estimate is just over 10% of 2022 production and although there are some big question marks surrounding the timing of that report, chickpea values have remained fairly consistent since the data collection. This means the expectation is that actual plantings should be similar to the intentions at the time and that chickpea acreage likely hasn’t made a swing into other crops. An increase of acres would be welcomed as there is minimal old crop currently available, which paired strong demand, is keeping bids supported. Old crop values remain around $0.54/lb, but on offer you may be able to snag a bit more depending on sizing. Indian prices have tamed down now that rabi harvest has concluded, but there is some question around quality as there seems to be a larger than normal spread between larger and medium sized Kabulis. As well, Mexican crop sizing is questionable lending support to increased sizing. New crop values maintain strength at $0.47 – $0.48/lb with an aog.
Canola futures are showing marginal gains this morning despite other comparable markets taking losses. At the time of writing, both July and November are in the green, albeit only showing gains of $1.50/MT and $0.10/MT, respectively. StatsCan’s latest estimates suggest stocks are tighter than expected, down about 2.81MMT from the 5-year average, which is likely providing support. Current local cash bids are ranged from $16.80-$17.80/bu delivered plant while new crop bids sit around $15.60-$16.00/bu delivered, pending location and basis level. Growers in Southern AB with canola on farm are encouraged to call our offices to discuss the stronger quoted old crop bids as we currently have a buyer searching for product with May shipping.
Quiet oat markets continue as growers steadily try and find homes for an oversupply in the bin. Opportunities with buyers are popping in here and there to cover a short or trying to create an opportunity for a new sale, but for the most part it is more leg work than actual trade for both buyers and sellers. Eastern parts of Canada are seeing better values as cargo is moving into Manitoba and being used for milling. Feed lots are always on the lookout, but they lose interest quickly in over market offers or sellers pushing for a few nickels over the bid. Saskatchewan/Alberta bids maintain $3-3.50/bu FOB farm and new crop is coming in around $3/bu FOB without AOG and extremely freight sensitive. Eastern SK and Western MB draw values closer to $4/bu FOB farm on old crop but no premium for new crop.
Impressive planting pace and waning Chinese purchases have exerted some pressure on the market as of late. Available new crop Brazilian supply continues to be a preferred option for global trade. Any hopes of a market uptick are hanging on the prospects of US crop progress and weather, along with domestic demand. Local bids are still holding up quite well at $18.00-$18.50/bu FOB farm location dependent. The dry bean market remains markedly unchanged. Channel inventories continue to off-set any potential production concerns. Some analysts feel that later production cycle support may emerge based on a reduction in planted acres and Latin American production shortfalls. It is largely accepted that the Canadian Prairies will see fewer acres of fabas planted this spring. Feed quality fabas continue to be supported by pet food values. Local bids with export quality #2 faba bids being in the range of $13.50-$14.00/bu FOB farm and feed quality values are near $10.00-$10.50/bu FOB farm location dependent.
Old crop mustard bids continue to cascade towards new crop values. This is an indication of expected adequate new crop supply and thinner spot trade volumes. It is generally accepted that planted mustard acres will increase year over year, both north and south of the border. Our US neighbors are reporting much better planting conditions than previous years. Spot markets for yellow mustard are down a little, trading at $0.80-$0.83/lb FOB farm, brown remains stable around $0.70/lb, and oriental sits at $0.68-$0.70/lb, pending variety. New crop bids with an AOG, 10bpa and FOB farm are quoted as follows: yellow at $0.64/lb, brown at $$0.55-0.60/lb, and oriental at $0.65/lb. These contracts would all be for Sept-July 2024 movement, with possible options for quicker shipping at a discounted value.
The canary market continues to hum along with no significant interruptions. Bids continue to be relatively supported at $0.37-$0.38/lb picked up on the farm and have remained at these levels for the last month or so. Buyers do seem to be getting what they need to cover off sales, so don’t expect to see pricing pick up in this second quarter unless crop conditions come into play. With maybe a slight increase in seeding intentions and an average crop, market hypothesis may remain close to right around where current values lay. Now, that’s based off an untimely seeding intention report and a normal growing season. What happens this planting and growing season remains to be determined. New crop values remain entrenched at $0.35/lb delivered in with an AOG.
Pea pricing remains a bit of a challenge this week as demand seems fairly quiet. Not much is actually moving as growers are in the field heavily this week with priorities set on getting the crop in the ground. Prices seem to continually dip slowly lower, and the latest trades show this trend. Green pea bids sit at the $13.50/bu picked up range, while new crop is sitting around $12.50/bu range delivered to plant. Delivered bids can be had in the $14/bu range. New crop yellow pea demand remains lackluster and not much has booked at all. Old crop yellow peas hover around $10.50- $11.00/bu picked up and is very sensitive to freight. Again, Chinese yellow pea demand will dictate the outcome of supply for 2023/24 and we hope to see some strong demand, but as always, this will likely remain somewhat of a mystery for now. Buyers do not seem to be in an aggressive mood. Maple peas are still indicating values around $16.00/bu FOB, so, for those with old crop in the bin, it might be a good play to get those moving as time now starts to slip away as planting continues.
Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.