Feed barley is a shining light again this week. Strong prices have been maintained by the dry weather and minimal carryover. This combination has the feedlots calling for product, which is reflected in the price. Expect to see bids in that range of $4.60 – $5.20/bu FOB farm, with the latter in select locations, for that June/July movement. However, if it ever decides to rain, these old crop prices will disappear in a hurry with the rejuvenation to the pasture land and new crop around the corner. New crop feed barley comes in around that $3.75 – $4.00/bu FOB farm with the possibility of an act of God in some cases. On the other hand, old crop and new crop malt barley prices have been difficult to locate. Putting out an offer may be the best way to go.
With seeding mostly wrapped up in Saskatchewan, many are waiting for a rain. Soil moisture is lacking in quite a few areas, which has some expecting a slight uptick in lentil pricing. However, lentil carryover may keep this uptick at bay. India had shown a bit of optimism late last week, as per Stat reports, which brought up more export business. With this we saw an increase in old crop lentil pricing. Red lentil targets were hitting at 18.50-19 cents FOB, large green lentils were trading at 22 cents FOB on a #2 and small greens edged up to 18 cents delivered on a #1 quality. New crop is slowly getting started with producers looking to lock in a price with an act of God. Red lentils bids remain at 17 cents FOB, large greens at 20 cents FOB and small greens trade at 17/16 FOB on a #1/#2 quality
Oats continue to hang in there as one of the most unchanged and strongest priced commodities. Bids hold firm as buyers look to purchase the remaining product in the bin. Feed bids continue to bounce around $2.75- $3.00 per bushel FOB farm on decent quality 40lb oats for quick movement. Milling oats have been trading around $3.65/bu delivered or $3.25 FOB in select locations. It all depends on freight costs, but with the stronger sentiment, we feel some buyers may be willing to stretch those numbers. The closer you are to the Manitoba border the better. New crop oats still hover around $3.00/bu delivered to plant.
Canola has been rising on the futures markets these past few days. This has been a nice change as of late as we see canola around $457MT for July at time of writing today. There are serious concerns on a very wet Midwest US and that has been propping up grain and oilseeds markets in the last few trading sessions. It’s becoming apparent that a lot of short positions are being closed and fund traders have been buying the market up. US plantings are also far behind the 5-year average as of this week. This news has been taking over the Chinese import issues that Canada is having, for this week anyway. We are starting again to see bids around that $10-dollar mark delivered.
While desi chickpea prices are trending higher in India, kabuli prices are still sitting sideways. This suggests India’s desi supply is not as plentiful as estimated. With the Indian election complete, what changes, if any, will there be to the tariffs imposed by the Indian government? Indian prices have risen from their record lows and have just about breached the specified minimum support price. Chickpeas are India’s largest pulse crop followed by their pigeon pea crop. This upward movement in prices, could hopefully lift other pulse prices as well. The trade has slowly built up inventory in anticipation of moving some of that product. Indian monsoons are reported to be normal to below normal, however that season runs until September, so reports could change. Indian acres look ambitious right now, but considering weather risks and grower fatigue, the government may have to look at tariff restrictions once the kharif harvest begins in September and October. The sideways pricing on Canadian chickpeas is due to our carry-over, so the large supplies could limit prices well into the 2019/20 season.
Soybean market is up again today fueled by concerns over mid-west wet weather and the resulting delays. Soybean planting is running at a record slow pace of 29% complete. The 3 critical “I” states are reporting some of the lowest and slowest planting progress. Fundamentals and trade issues still remain but, are taking a backseat at this point. Local soybean bids are trading in the range of $10.00/bu picked up on farm. New crop #2 faba bean bids continue to hover near $7.50/bu delivered. Canadian dry bean planting is on the home stretch for many across the Prairies this week.
Feed wheat prices have smartened up a little this week, with growers able to catch a $6/bu in most areas of the province on firm target. Some areas with freight advantages should be able to tag a bit of a higher number, picked up on farm. Milling hard red wheat prices have swung up a bit, with delivered elevator bids on #1 13.5% pro back in to the high $6’s range. Not great but showing signs of life at least. Durum numbers have pushed up slightly too. Fall bids are back to $7/bu or better delivered in for #1, 13.5% Pro to various locations around the province. Fall prices for milling wheat are a bit weaker than the summer prices and not really worth noting at this juncture. Feed prices for the fall are hovering around $5/bu picked up in many areas, so if you have interest we can get a bid tailored to your farm.
Mustard remains flat once again this week. With seeding wrapped up for most of the key mustard growing areas, we now hope for rain. Dry conditions are scattered throughout the province, and if we don’t see any moisture within the next couple of weeks, you may see prices move up for both new and old crop. But for now, reports are still showing prices staying steady for yellow, oriental and brown. Keep in mind targets may provide a couple cent increase on all varieties. Spot bids are as follows: 35c/lb on yellow, 29-30c/lb on brown, forge/vulcan variety oriental at 26c/lb, and cutlass variety at 23.5c/lb. New crop bids are still being shown by buyers, with the most attractive bids being posted for the full crop year movement. 35c/lb on yellow, 29/lb on brown, and 26c/lb on oriental depending on variety are quoted bids FOB farm with act of God. If you are looking for a quicker movement, please call your merchant.
After seeing a build up of canaryseed stocks at the Thunder Bay terminals recently, confirmation has been received that vessels will soon be moving over to Europe, bumping up our export totals for the year. This round of buying took place quietly with relatively no affect on our local prices. This tells us that stocks on farm are more comfortable than the last Stats Canada estimate showed and that prices should stay flat moving forward, barring no major weather concerns this growing season. Current bids for sound quality canaryseed are around 22.5-23.5 cents/lb picked up on farm for June/July movement.
Year to date flax exports are around 273,000MTS which is low compared to last year of 325,000MTS during the same period. With a major US crusher backing off the market, there has been a downward trend in US values, while Canadian bids climb where supply is “tight”. On the opposite side of those points, according to reported acres and yield for the 2018/2019 crop, it is still expected that exports by the end of the crop year should hit the 5-year average of 396,000MTS, which means there is potential for a lot of activity left in the coming weeks before harvest. Bids for old crop still coming in at the $14-$14.25/bu FOB farm with new crop bids at $12/bu FOB farm with an AOG. Offers are trading slightly higher. In addition, we have been seeing a demand for organic flax on both old and new crop. Seeing some action this week in yellow peas as prices reach $7.00/bu delivered plant for old cop and a couple of buyers also showing interest in new crop yellow peas at 6.50 FOB farm. India seems to have curiosity in Canadian peas as the local Indian chickpea price has been increasing. Yellow pea prices will remain a topic of interest as ending stocks are projected to be lower than earlier perceived. Also on some minds are weather concerns, not only in Canada, but also in India and what direction the Indian Government will further take on outside agriculture trade. Green peas seem quiet at the moment, but the weather will also play a major role in where future prices end up, as our carry out will be well below the five-year average and if yields are sub average expect prices to improve. Spot bids are tough to find this week, but indications pop up at $10-$11/bu. Old crop remains indicated at $8.00/bu range FOB farm with AOG.
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