The canola market has seen two consecutive days of price recovery after a weak Monday following losses in the soybean market. This is not to say canola prices are good, because they are not, but at least they are a bit better than they looked Monday. Analysts are not expecting this strength in the market to push for too long, but more so a reactionary bounce coupled with a few smaller circumstances, like the Japanese market re-opening after a holiday. Many bids out there are in the $9/bu range, but we have heard reports of higher bids popping in and out as buyers look to cover off orders. Keep your ears open for these small selling opportunities if you’re still holding product in the bin.
If you have ever watched paint dry or grass grow, then you have a good comparison to the current activity in chickpea markets. Old and new crop pricing, sizing differences and pet food values are amongst the topics we question our buyers on and the responses have been lackluster at best. Talk of how pet food supply has been hot the last two years continues to be a glimmer of light but in reality, we hear those markets did not develop as quickly as projected and the buyers are currently over bought. While it is still a viable outlet for lower quality product, it isn’t as exciting as it previously has been. Desi chickpeas are currently going in the ground and yet again, no one knows where to value a fall contract. Growers are looking for $0.23-0.25/lb off the farm and buyers say, “It’s too early to know”. This is the perfect scenario for showing an offer at a level that is workable for the farm. Let the buy side know where they need to be and then work it. Best advice today on chickpeas in general…get out your pencil, figure out what makes it work and put that number out there. Current bids on large kabuli chickpeas remain in the $0.23-$0.24/lb range.
The Chinese market is still a popular topic for Canadian peas, as similar issues in the canola market are now posing barriers to peas. Not only that, but throughout the 2018 marketing year, China was importing Canadian peas for pig feed rations. These feed purchases have since stopped, not only because China and the US trying to setup a trade deal, but also because of the swine fever that swept through China’s hog barns killing over 200 million. Despite our pea markets being negatively affected by both India and now China, we did see a price change in yellow peas this week. We have opportunity to trade some volume at $6.75-6.80/bu delivered. Otherwise, prices remained unchanged from last week. Green peas and maple peas, which were once a hot market, have now fallen back in pricing with new crop coming around the corner. Green peas are indicated at $11.50/bu and maple peas at $9.00/bu picked up – that is if you can find a firm bidder. New crop values are $6.00/bu for yellows, $8.00/bu for greens and $9.00/bu for maple peas.
The canaryseed market hasn’t produced any strength over the past few weeks, which leads us to a couple scenarios; 1. stocks are higher than reported (which always seems to be the case) and 2. demand has slowed. Recently, Mexico and Indonesia, two purchasers who have been significant buyers in recent years, have decelerated imports leaving markets stagnant. It seems for canary prices to rise near term, we will have to see some kind of weather issue, here or elsewhere, limiting supply. This, or a drop in seeded acres, which isn’t projected to be the case, may give this market the steam it’s looking for. Prices on new crop canaryseed have been trading between 20 to 21 c/lb FOB the farm with an AOG, while old crop remains in the 22c/lb FOB farm range. Growers may catch slight bumps throughout the summer when buyers need to purchase product, so it is important to keep in touch with your merchant.
Well, another week has come and gone with little change to the oat market. We continue to see pockets of strong prices for milling oats ($3.40/bu delivered) popping up in select locations. These opportunities seem to be short lived and growers should consider making sales on these small rallies to maximize return. On the feed side, the markets are pulling back and slowing down as demand has decreased due to most of the animals feeding on grass now. Expect to see feed pricing in that $2.25 – $2.50/bu picked up on the farm. There are some new crop oat bids floating in at $3/bu and up delivered to plant on milling quality. If you have a target in mind give us a call at 1-800-Ray-Glen (729-4536) and we’d be happy to show it to our buyers.
Flax prices have trended up this week, with $14.00/bu FOB farm trading. New crop prices are slightly lower and tougher to find after recent trade last week and early this week. $12.00/bu picked up with an AOG is the indication in certain areas. The bump in spot bids could be to fill some upcoming sales and the US market is weaker, which has provided some price support for Canada. However, the lull in US flax crushing will put a hold on Canadian imports. Weather permitting, with a larger 2019 Canadian and US flax crop going in, it will only be a matter of time before old crop prices start to line up with the lower new crop values. Chinese demand is slipping, and Russia can likely be accountable on sending sizeable supplies. If you have any off-grade flax or yellow flax in the bins, we have markets available as well, but opportunities are hit and miss.
Soybean market is in grips of the US/China trade talks, just as other North American commodities are. Talks are scheduled for Thurs/Fri in Washington; however, prospects of a deal look shaky after the U.S. threatened new tariffs in response to the Chinese retreating on some of its earlier promises, allegedly. It’s anticipated that the USDA will raise its forecast of ‘18 inventory in Friday’s report due to exports tanking in the absence of a trade deal with China. Local soybean bids are trading in the range of $9.00/bu picked up on farm. Canadian new crop faba acres will increase significantly predicated on lofty old crop bids. Old crop #2 faba bids remain supported near $11/bu FOB farm for good quality whereas new crop #2 bids hover near $7.50/bu FOB farm. North American dry bean export trade isn’t setting any records; however, specialty bean classes continue to show good opportunity.
Over the past week we have seen some renewed interest in red lentils. Does this mean things are opening up in India or is it simply that companies are looking to get business on the books and have grain moving through the plant? Likely the latter, but no matter the reason, the real takeaway here is there has been participation in the market with slight increases in value and producers should take advantage of these bumps. Red lentils seem to be in a bit of tug of war lately; on one side we wonder if the oversupply in Canada will keep prices from rising and the other questions India’s crop condition and whether it is in worse shape than is being discussed. There is also the uncertainty on the outcome of the India election and how it will effect tariffs. In today’s markets, with so much uncertainty, it makes it hard for everyone in the industry to make commitments on marketing their product. Here are the trade numbers from the last week: 19 cents delivered on reds, 20 cents delivered Large greens, 18 cents delivered small greens and US richleas have trade at 13 cents picked up.
Milling spring wheat prices have stumbled a bit this week, as bids into elevators around the prairies continue to soften. Spot bids are sitting in the $6.25-$6.50/bu range delivered into plant, while new crop bids are closer to $6/bu delivered in. These prices are based on #1 grades with a minimum 13.5% protein. Milling durum bids for movement in the new crop year have popped up in the south east at aggressive values so if that sounds like it may be of interest to you be sure to give us a call. Feed wheat prices have continued to be strong as we have seen little change this week. Bids range from $5.40-$5.80/bu picked up on farm with the best prices being closer to Alberta feedlots.
Mustard markets remain relatively stable this week with oriental mustard the only type that has taken a hit. We have yet to hear any reports of areas needing to reseed after the cold spell over the past couple weeks, despite speculation that there may be a few problem locations. Spot contracts are available picked up on your farm at $0.35/lb on yellow, $0.30/lb on brown, and $0.22/lb on oriental based on #1 grades. On the new crop side of things, full crop year movement contracts are available at $0.35/lb on yellow, $0.28/lb on brown, and $0.25-$0.26/lb on oriental depending on variety. If you do run into issues or are looking for some last-minute seed, give us a call and we will try to help you get some certified seed in the drill.
Nothing major really stands out in barley markets this week. Buyers are still looking for product, but not over paying as they know new crop is only a few months away. With that being said, bids are still strong so if you have product left in the bin and needing it moved out before harvest, now might be the best time. New crop bids are holding steady between $3.50-3.90/bu FOB farm for movement before Jan 2020. Old crop bids remain firm at $4.40-$5.00/bu depending on freight, you may find better the further west you go. New crop malt prices are getting few and far between but offers have been somewhat successful in getting product booked – specifically Metcalfe Variety. We also have a couple lots of Certified Copeland variety available if you are needing some.
Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.