As barley enters a new month, posted bids remain virtually unchanged, but still at “sell” levels. In the prairies, FOB farm feed barley prices range from $5.50 to $6.00 per bushel, depending on the delivery timeline and location. While these values may not match bids seen this time last year, they are still quite favourable historically. There is a higher likelihood that these prices will hold steady or fall further rather than experiencing a significant market upswing in the near future. Several factors contribute to the current price stability, including the demand for, and continued shipment of corn into feedlots as well as the surplus of malt varieties that do not meet spec being redirected to feed markets. If you are uncertain about selling, it is recommended to make sales on at least a portion of your inventory to hedge against further downside. Maltsters have been very “tight lipped” in regard to this year’s needs, but if you’re sitting on good quality malt, we suspect they are willing to show firm bids once samples are submitted for review.
Chickpea values maintain a strong presence in the market, with posted bids sitting in the range of $0.54 to $0.55 per pound FOB farm. Higher valued grower targets have also been observed over the past couple of weeks and buyers continue to show interest. However, it’s important to note that sizing remains a significant factor in their decision to purchase these offers above posted bids. There are indications that seeded chickpea acreage for 2024 will increase, which makes sense given the favourable pricing and reduced susceptibility to soil born disease compared to crops like lentils. Therefore, it may be an opportune moment to consider selling some of the chickpeas that have been stored for a couple of years.
The wheat market is showing a positive trend after a period of falling futures. This week, tenders have been issued by countries like Jordan, Bangladesh, and Japan, with a preference for sourcing from North America or Australia. That said, Russian product continues to enter the market at discounted values, underpinning the market. Domestic bids, so far, remain relatively consistent week to week. Current bids sit around $9.20/bu delivered for #1 CWRS with 13.5% protein throughout central Sask, while red winter and soft white wheat are priced at $8.50/bu delivered. Feed demand has been quiet, and values are holding at $8-$8.50/bu FOB, rivaling delivered plant milling bids.
The canola market is moving sideways at time of writing, with January futures at approximately $677/MT after transitioning from November. It seems the market is still searching for a bottom, but at this point we can’t say it has found one yet. Sellers seem content with waiting at this stage and once a floor has been established, we’ll see what kind of, if any, correction is made. Canola futures are largely influenced by the soybean market, so monitoring American and South American production is crucial. For now, it essential to keep an eye on local basis levels and on farm storage to avoid any quality issues. Early expectations indicate that canola acres for next year’s crop will remain relatively stable at around 21-22 million, though it is early, and this may change over time.
The lentil market is full of “tricks and treats” this week, with green lentils leading the way in value. Spot large green lentil bids sit between 65 and 66 cents per pound FOB farm for Nov-Dec delivery. New crop large greens have traded based on firm grower targets as well, with values fluctuating pending on shipping window and location. Call your merchant for details! Small green lentils have reached 62 cents this week for old crop and 45 cents FOB with an Act of God for new crop. Medium green lentils are trading at 45-46 cents per pound in U.S. dollars, again contingent on location and shipping window. Specialty lentils like french greens and belugas are maintaining bids at 60 and 70 cents respectively, without much mention of new crop programs yet. Red lentils remain quiet with bids as high as 37 cents per pound FOB in strong freight locations, although most are still quoting 35-36 cents FOB farm. The small red lentil market is expected to remain uneventful until the market gets a better handle on the Australian harvest. The large green lentil market is approaching its 2016 high, while small green lentils are also nearing record levels. Typically, large green lentils tend to plateau rather than spike, and this plateau period often starts in early-mid fall and lasting until mid-late winter. It is important to note that this is only the third time in 10 years that prices have pushed over the 60 cent per pound mark. It remains to be seen whether the market will flatten or continue to climb.
Soybean futures have seen a slight increase due to Brazil’s planting pace reports, with Brazil falling behind expected pace due to irregular rainfall patterns. Export orders to Mexico and China, along with strong domestic crush, are supporting prices as well. Bids range from $15.20 to $15.70/bu FOB depending on the farm location. Dry bean bids are expected to receive late-season support from Mexican demand due to lower production. Feed quality fabas continue to be supported by pet food values, with local bids ranging from $11.50 to $12.00/bu FOB for export quality #2 fabas and $9.00-$10.00/bu FOB for feed quality, depending on the farm location.
The final Sask Ag report shows canaryseed production at 19.5 bu/acre, slightly lower than StatsCan’s estimate of 21 bu/acre. Based on estimated acreage reports, no matter how you slice it, supply for the 23/24 marketing year will still be less than 22/23. Despite the smaller crop, export demand has been slow, falling behind previous years. Locally, canaryseed seems to have a bearish tone, with pricing holding flat to slightly lower this week. Top end bids still sit at 43-44 cents per pound FOB farm, but some purchasers have moved lower on suspicion of the downward trend continuing. Freight and shipping timeframe will play a significant role in price determination, so reaching out to your merchant for the latest information is recommended. New crop pricing is at $0.35/lb delivered with an Act of God.
Green peas have seen some price improvement in select areas over the past week, with bids reaching $17.00/bu picked up in the yard. Some room remains on this program, but tonnage is limited, so if interested, please reach out to your merchant for details. Farmer selling is ahead of the 5-year average, suggesting strong sales to the end-user market. Imports of peas into China are currently below the 5-year average, and with lower production in key growing areas such as Canada, more peas may enter the market from Russia and Ukraine. Yellow peas are holding steady at $11.00/bu delivered, and there is still interest from buyers for maple peas.
Flax exports have been quiet, and supplies are not expected to be tight despite lower 2023 planted acres. Some flax is trading at $17.00/bu picked up in the yard for December to February movement, with most of it going to the US, but this buying pool seems to be shrinking. Canadian exports to China have also decreased, with most of their demand being supplied by Russia and Kazakhstan. Interestingly, Canadian market share into China for September was reported as less than 2000MT. There is speculation that there is a significant amount of flax stored in Chinese warehouses, so the smaller crop in Canada may not impact Chinese buyers significantly.
Mustard markets remain sluggish, with little reaction to recent reports from Sask Ag indicating an ever so slight increase in yields in their late October report. The provincial average yield was reported at 636lbs per acre, leading to a bump in overall tonnage compared to last year. Brown mustard has shown some weakness, with quoted values dropping to the 68 cent per pound range. Overseas demand for brown mustard remains slow. On the other hand, yellow mustard bids remain stable at around the low to mid $0.80 per pound, while oriental mustard prices remain unchanged, hovering in the high $0.60s per pound range. Despite an increase in inquiries about new crop mustard pricing from the grower side, there are currently no new crop programs available, so we’ll have to wait and see how things unfold in November. Mustard seed sales have begun, and there are various options available, including treated and untreated seed with free delivery to the farm for the upcoming year.
In the oats market, there’s some reshuffling of chairs as buyers calculate new crop values, while growers stand ready. Due to the lack of acres and production last year, buyers are looking to bolster their supplies without flooding the market. To strike a balance, the market needs more acres than last year, but not to the extent of the previous year; a delicate dance to ensure markets make sense for both producers and buyers. If you’re considering new crop oats, be sure to reach out to your merchant. As for old crop milling values, they continue to range from low $5 to $5.25 per bushel, depending on the farm’s location. Feed values remain relatively unchanged, with prices penciled in at $4 to possibly $4.50 per bushel.
Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.