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Rayglen Market Comments – November 28, 2018

The oat market hasn’t done much this week and remains range bound between $2.75 to $3.00 per bushel on milling grade product. Bids are indicated as picked up on the farm and price variance is based on which part of the province you live in. The closer you are to the Manitoba border, the more likely you are to see stronger values. On a feed oat, you can expect to see bids around $2.25 to $2.50 per bushel, FOB. With oat yields to be about average this year, you are most likely not going to see values make big climbs, but rather growers should take advantage of any small blips that arise. There are a lot of good quality oats in the bin as well, so we expect prices to remain generally flat for months to come. If you are looking for prices in your area, please call your Rayglen merchant for most up to date information.

Chickpea bids have been very active and several contracts have been done this week. The buy side has started to peek interest and it is hard to pinpoint why. Globally, Australia has reports of smaller than expected Desi crops, which has Pakistan and Bangladesh looking elsewhere for pulse supply replacement. India’s Rabi chickpea planting is still around 5% behind compared to last year and their exports of kabulis remain strong, which might support bullish speculation if weather does not cooperate. These factors could be the pressure we are seeing in the Canadian market. Hard to say if there is a long game at play here, but if these values, or some where near them, pencil out at your needs you might consider opening some of the bins. Orion/Leaders trading between $0.25-$0.27/lb FOB farm #2 quality and Frontiers at a $0.02/lb discount. High green and damaged chickpeas are also in demand being valued at $0.17-$0.20/lb FOB farm depending on location. We are still on the lookout for Desi chickpeas and happy to discuss new crop options and offers.

Lentils continue to strengthen on rumors of India having precipitation problems. Most states in India are reporting they are short rainfall at this point. Moisture seems to be the major issue as previously concerning pulse seeded acres are improving according to the last seeded acre report. They are still behind last year’s pace, but not that far behind the 5-year average. With prices rebounding, the question now is: will they continue to climb or stall out?  This week showed buyers that 18c/lb on red lentils was a trigger for many sellers and brought a decent number of bushels to the table. This market is still very unstable as a couple of timely rains will likely have India less concerned with purchasing. Taking advantage of these small blips in the market maybe the best way to put some sales on the book. Sellers able to take advantage of the small price bump were farmers that had a firm target in place. For the short-term markets will likely bounce up and down, so having a set price in place and on paper will likely give you the best chance to achieve your marketing goals.

There is finally excitement in the pea markets and buyers have been looking at targets. We had green peas trading at $9.75/bu FOB, yellows at $7/bu FOB and maple peas at $15/bu FOB. Most movement on these contracts have been January through February/ March, so they won’t move very quick, but pricing is attractive. We haven’t seen any India import restriction changes yet, however there was some buyer speculation due to their lack of rain. As per Stats reports, we may not see restriction changes until the April/May elections in India. Though even without India, China has been showing a strong demand, which is keeping peas moving. Our office still has a supply of pea seed for yellows, greens & maples. Contact your merchant for pricing and pickup locations.

The canola futures have seen some small gains the last few days with the bean and oil market seeing some upside.  We have also seen some local basis levels improving in some areas resulting in cash bids ranging from $10.50/bu for nearby delivery and $11.00/bu delivered for a July timeframe.  The G20 meetings scheduled for this weekend could swing this market in either direction depending how the meetings between the US and China unfold.  We will also see Statistics Canada release its final Canadian production estimate in early December with some analysts feeling the crop will shake out around 20-21MMT.  Growers should keep an eye on things and take advantage of either future or basis opportunities that arise in the coming weeks.

The flax markets are staying sideways as far as prices go.  #1 quality is indicating $13.25/bu delivered, while milling is $13.25/bu picked up.  Movement varies.  Yellow flax markets are indicating $14.00/bu picked up, with movement out to March. The recent exports will have impact on Canadian flax supplies and provide additional support for bids. There are also reports that Chinese inventories are decreasing. The Black Sea region has expected to increase their volumes of flax in the last couple of months, due to the late harvest. Those volumes will limit the upside potential on Canadian prices. While Canadian prices have gained some momentum over the last couple of months, part of that support also comes from the weaker Canadian dollar. Make sure your samples are sent to our office, so we can get a grade on it and go from there for marketing.

Barley markets are very similar to last week. Until temperatures drop, we will likely not see much price fluctuation. Corn is also the same price as feed barley, which is keeping the market at bay as well. Prices are sitting between $4.25-4.50/bu FOB farm for Jan-Mar movement, with little to nothing for quick movement as the feedlots are all bought up. If you know you’re putting in feed barley in 2019, we have some pretty attractive new crop bids with an Act of God, so call your merchant if you’re interested. Also offers are a great way to catch a high in the market if you have a specific price in mind.

The feed wheat market remains sideways in recent days with bids floating around $5.25 to $5.65/bu picked up in your yard depending on area. As the weather got better and the grain dryers did their job, we haven’t heard much for high moisture issues from the trade. With that, comes the opportunity to move tough grain and we have a few available markets if you are sitting on tough wheat. If you are willing to wait into the new year on movement the prices do get a fair bit better, but if you need space and are willing to take the discounted option, prompt movement is available. Milling wheat markets are at similar values as of late, with over $7/bu delivered elevator as the recent indications on CWRS.  If you are located in the south east part of Saskatchewan we have had a few options for milling durum for deferred movement. Touch base with your merchant for further details on durum in the bin or in next year’s rotation.

Mustard markets have been quiet this week as pulses seem to be taking center stage with some interesting bids. No real changes in mustard price as buyers report similar selling conditions overseas and to the US. Yellow mustard has traded at 34 c/lb for December movement, and 35 is available for January/February. These are great prices and movement is fairly quick to receive cash in a timely manner. Brown mustard is sitting at 30-31c/lb depending on movement timelines. Oriental mustard, of the Forge variety, has been trading around 27c/lb. Cutlass type oriental is heavily discounted with indications of around 24c/lb.  Please call your merchant for details. We have certified seed available for new crop and have many options, including untreated, treated and delivered to your yard.

The canary seed market has remained flat this week as little news has been released. The market remained unfazed by the last Sask Ag yield being lowered by about 100 lbs/acre. We do, however, expect the on-farm supply to be a bit tighter this year and typically the next big round of sales take place in the spring. This could allow us to see a slight jump in the market, but how big that jump may be remains to be seen. The current market is trading at 23c/lb delivered to plant although in the right areas we may be able to find that 23c/lb picked up on your farm.

Soybean futures went up today on short-covering as investors waited to see if expected talks between US and China at a G20 summit (Friday Nov. 30) will begin to repair the ongoing trade dispute that has stemmed U.S. soybean exports to China. Local soybean bids are in the range of $10.30-$10.50/bu picked up on farm. Faba beans remain a hot topic with several buyers. Although almost types of fabas have an opportunity this year, there is particular focus on the large seed zero tannin varieties. Local faba bids are in the range of $10.50-$11.00/bu picked up on farm for good quality large seed zero tannin varieties. Dry beans are still indicating decent demand for most classes. North American dry bean production numbers are down, which is lending strength to the market. New crop dry bean contracts should be available again this year, call our Rayglen office for more information.

Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.