A bit of an outlier in chickpeas bids this week as one of our buyers puts out a $0.33/lb FOB farm for #2 chickpeas with min. 30% 9mm sizing. Given the recent reports out of Sask Ag that this year’s production was over 95% quality of #2 or better, this bid smells of opportunity. There is no indication that the rest of the buy side will follow suit or how long it will last, but it is good to see some fiscal uptick congruent with interest in chickpeas again. If you are thinking about changing up seed or want to talk 2021/22 crop give us a call.
The oat market is steady again this week, with prices between $4.00-$4.25/bu delivered into Manitoba depending on movement. Prices reverting back to Central Sask for #2CW are closer to $3.30-$3.40/bu, picked up for movement out to March. Feed oat prices are hit and miss but remain to be in the $2.25-$2.50/bu FOB range. There are some opportunities to sell at stronger values if the feed oats weigh up. With most buyers long on movement, it could be a good time to start to look at those values. As more time passes, the movement continues to go into summer months.
Flax bids have been wild over the last month, but values seem to have settled this week. For those who are willing to work with a pushed-out movement window, $18.00/bu FOB is available; for those looking for nearby movement, that price is closer to $17.00/bu picked up. In either case, flax prices are at record levels and should be considered by growers. Recently, there have been flax exports heading to Europe and the US, but we haven’t seen an updated USDA flax acreage report since the end of June, which could shift things. Analysts are expecting Chinese flax demand to be strong for the remainder of 2020/21, while the Black Sea Region’s flax prices are rallying as well. There has also been reports of a bottleneck of shipments moving from Kazakh into China. This, along with their farmers holding back flax, could explain some of the recent price surges we have seen. If the situation with the bottleneck corrects itself overseas, there will be flax supplies waiting in the wings.
Over the past couple weeks, feed barley markets have been softening and trading has slowed. Bids have come down about 10 to 25 cents/bu across most of the Prairies, but even with this price correction values are still attractive and should be considered. Currently, feed barley is quoted around $5.00/bu FOB the farm in Southwest Sask and closer to $4.30/bu in Northeast Sask, confirming the age old saying: “the closer you are to feedlot alley, the better”. The price of feed barley could bounce back to previous highs, but with what looks to be ample supply and delivery pushed into winter months already, it may be a stretch. Comparing these values to the malt market, we still see minimal to no spread as malt bids remain around $5.00/bu delivered, with movement well into the new year. Demand on malt is very slow at best and growers still may decide to ship malt quality into feed markets.
The pea market has not seen many changes since last week with yellows still holding strong at $8.75/bu and greens at $10.00/bu, both delivered plant. As we near $9.00/bu on yellow peas, growers may want to take a look at marketing some product; historically, yellow pea bids don’t get much better. Green peas at $10.00/bu delivered may warrant holding on for a bit longer, but also not a bad starting point to make some hedges. Moving to specialty peas, maples remain strong, trading at $10.00 – 10.50/bu picked up on farm. In most cases, peas harvested this year were of good quality and the majority of product we see has been making #2 quality. We do have some movement options for sample/feed peas if you do have off spec. Higher bleach green peas have been priced around $7.00 – 8.00/bu picked up. New crop values haven’t surfaced quite yet, if you have a target price in mind let your merchant know.
Soybean futures have been buoyed by a rally in palm oil and continued positive Chinese export numbers. Local soybean bids now hover around $11.50-$12.00/bu picked up depending on location. Increased export competition with Australia seems to be holding back the Canadian export faba market. Buyers are taking a “wait and see” approach with export bids being scarce. Feed faba bids are in the range of $6.00-$7.00/bu FOB farm location dependent. Dry bean harvest is largely wrapped up across North America. With that brings a forecast of increased production and bid pressure on some classes dependent on production levels. That said, decent demand exists across the sector if producers find themselves looking for buyers for additional production. New crop dry bean bids are soon to be released. Contact Rayglen if you are interested in new crop.
As we get into November, our attention transitions to the January futures. After an up and down week, the January futures are sitting almost exactly equal to the same time a week ago at $544.80/MT. This is mostly due to some strength in vegetable oil markets around the world pushing the futures price up Tuesday and Wednesday. The price was held down a little bit due to strength in the Canadian dollar this week. There is a slight carry in the market out to the March futures which sit at $549/MT at time of writing.
The canary seed prices have tabled off a little this past week or two. Buyer bids remain at $0.30-$0.31/lb range FOB farm depending on the movement window you prefer (the latter being into the new year). For a short period, we had been making a few trades into mid-winter timelines at $0.32 FOB farm, but those values do not seem attainable today. If you have a price in mind over market value, we are always taking targets to post if the market happens to move in your direction. One piece of info. that came across our desks as of late, is to note that as of today, the CGC has not officially brought canary seed sales under the coverage on the bonding system and at this time. Sales you make on canary are not covered by the CGC. The CGC is working to extend coverage to canary but it appears adding a new crop is not a turn-key operation and this is still outstanding work.
Lentils markets have gone quiet this past week, with some buyers even lowering their bids by a cent. The India and Turkish markets have both seen lentil prices drop as well. This is the opposite of what most people expected after India extended the lower tariffs until the end of December. The reality of the tariff extension is that the cargo that is already on route to India will now not face the chance of an increased tariff before it reaches port. To date, about 30% of this year’s crop has been shipped so, this has likely given India enough product to cover them until the Australian crop is harvested. Then, once March hits, the India crop will start to come off and local supply will be available. If both countries get an average crop the red lentil market could remain in the $0.26/lb to $0.30/lb range until at least spring. Prices this week are as follows: red lentils – $0.29-$0.30/lb delivered; large green lentils – $0.37/lb-$0.38/lb delivered; small green lentils – $0.30-$0.32/lb delivered.
China’s feud with Australia may end up affecting more than just barley. There is some noise out and about that China may add wheat to their banned list. If so, the doors will open to Canada, the US and France to fill the void, which would definitely have an impact on pricing. Feed wheat prices continue to hover around $6.25/bu picked up in the yard, with better pricing the closer you get to the feedlots and detract the further East you go. On #1 13.5% pro HRSW, pricing is hovering around $6.45/bu delivered into Central Sask, with roughly a $0.28/bu spread on 12.5% protein. If you push out to Spring and Summer, you will be right around the $7.00/bu range with similar spread on 12.5% protein sitting around that $6.70/bu range.
Mustard continues to stay range bound this week. Slow offshore shipping continues to be reported by buyers and we are not expecting much change in the near term. Bids today are steady sitting at $0.40/lb FOB farm for yellow with a delivery window of Dec./Jan. Brown sits at $0.31/lb FOB for Jan./Feb. pickup and Oriental Forge sits at $0.28 cents for Jan./Feb. movement. Oriental Cutlass variety remains at $0.26/lb for the same new year shipping. New crop mustard and seed has started to trade, please call your merchant for the latest in prices.
Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.