As November progresses, little change is observed in the value of most pea varieties. Green peas maintain their position as the frontrunners among the “big players” (yellows and greens), and although bids have softened slightly, firm targets are still catching interest around $17.00/bu FOB farm contingent on farm location. It’s important to note that this price pertains to good quality #2 spec with less than 3% bleach. Demand for higher bleached greens is tough to find this week, but we are looking for grower offers to show our buyers. Yellow peas seem poised for a price surge, but the starting gun hasn’t been fired yet. Bids still hover at approximately $11.00/bu delivered to most locations, but grower selling is slow and targets at $11.00/bu FOB, or higher, are encouraged. If a demand window opens up, it’s likely that tonnage will be filled quickly, so having your peas in front of purchasers is key. Maple peas continue to attract interest in the mid $20’s, but market demand appears to have softened slightly, which is understandable given the recent surge in purchases.
After a few weeks of stability, feed barley resumes its reaction to the market conditions we’ve been reporting on over the last few months. For the most part, bids across Saskatchewan have now dipped below the relatively stable level of $6.00/bu with many indications now sitting around $5.50 to $5.75/bu FOB farm. Those on the fence may want to consider making sales as buyers are still considering offers at these levels, although their appetite seems reduced. Purchasers are also reporting larger-sized lots becoming available, making it easier to secure their required tonnage while not having to chase bits and pieces across the prairies. There isn’t much new to report on malt, and while maltsters may still purchase, there’s a sense that many are stepping back to reevaluate their needs for the upcoming months. Showing good quality product is likely still worthwhile, but don’t expect immediate responses as they refine their wants versus needs for the remainder of the crop year.
Regarding old crop oats, demand may not be exceptionally strong, but prices continue to be quoted in the range of $5.00 to $5.25/bu delivered plant. Buyers appear content with their current positions, unwilling to “overbid” to secure more tonnage and these price levels likely represent a comfortable margin for the time being. Shifting to 2024 production, it’s not surprising that we’ve now seen some new crop demand pop up as oat buyers tend to plan their early harvest needs well in advance. Prices for the September to November 2024 shipping period are being quoted around $5.50/bu delivered for #2 spec, glyphosate free. Since these programs are relatively fresh, it’s unlikely that buyers are willing to pay values above quoted bids at this time. However, if you are looking for a bit more value, setting a firm target price might be a sensible approach. Historically, milling oat buyers tend to fill their early shipping windows sooner than later, so again, if you’re on the fence, consider making your decision with some haste.
Domestic lentil values are subject to outside market factors and each type of lentil can respond independently of another depending on what those factors may be. While India has traditionally been a significant importer of Canadian red lentils, diplomatic tensions have recently posed some challenges. On top of this, Australia is experiencing its second-largest lentil crop, and analysts anticipate ample supply for global markets. However, if the pigeon pea crop in India continues to show low yields, increased local pricing, and the world supply of large green and small green lentils dwindle, we may see a shift towards increased demand for reds. That said, currently, red lentil markets are stable with no noticeable increase in demand or value with bids sitting comfortably between 35-36 cents per pound picked up. The green lentil market seems less sensitive to these changes, with prices for large greens ranging from 65-69 cents per pound and small green lentils at 62-64 cents per pound both FOB farm after the new year. The relatively small price difference between green lentil varieties suggests that end-users are already substituting products. Offers on green lentils are still available, and these levels make sense to make incremental sales. Take advantage of this market!
The mustard market has been relatively quiet lately, as overseas end-users have not shown much interest, while domestic buyers are content with moving the contracts they purchased last spring for delivery during this crop year. While the supply in Canada is tight, it’s not overly restrictive. Other sources, such as the USA and the FSU, have helped mitigate the market impact and keep prices in check. Some growers are inquiring about new crop prices for the 2024/2025 crop year, but buyers have been unwilling to provide contract values at this point. Current spot prices are approximately 80 cents for #1 yellow mustard and in the mid to high 60s for brown and oriental varieties. However, the main issue is the availability for movement, as most buyers are already full until the new year. If you require mustard movement sooner, there are options, but you may have to accept slightly lower prices, given the reduced number of buyers capable of facilitating prompt deliveries.
The flax market has become subdued this week, with most buyers reducing their bids. Prices this week range between $16.00 and $16.50/bu FOB. The export market remains quiet, with minimal shipping activity for the 2023/2024 season so far. The Chinese market continues to favour purchasing from Kazakhstan and Russia. With a limited export market, ending stocks are expected to remain at a moderate level, which will likely keep pricing in check. The domestic market has shown strength in recent weeks but declined towards the end of the last week and traders are facing challenges in securing new domestic sales at the moment. Until the export market picks up, expect flax prices to remain sluggish.
Wheat futures are in the green today, and cash prices have seen a slight increase since the beginning of the week. Canadian wheat exports are up by 11% compared to last year, totaling 5.1 million metric tons through Week 13 of the shipping year. Locally, wheat bids delivered to plant in Saskatchewan include SWS and RWW at $9.40 per bushel for December, CWRS 13.5% pro at $9.30 per bushel for February, and CPSR at $9.10 per bushel for December. If you’re looking to market any type of wheat, consider discussing with your merchant to explore potential premiums by extending delivery into the new year. The feed wheat markets have been quiet, but buyers are encouraging offers, and prices will depend heavily on freight costs. Moving to the durum market, recent news suggests Russia has banned durum exports until May 31, 2024. Despite this, it hasn’t had a significant impact on the market, as Russia has already shipped the majority of its exportable surplus – some state as much as 80%. Durum prices range from $13.00 to $13.75 per bushel delivered in Saskatchewan, with stronger bids extending into May to July delivery. For growers in Southeast Saskatchewan, there is buyer interest at CAD $13.25 per bushel FOB farm for #1 US milling quality.
Soybean futures have seen a sharp increase due to export news and planting delays in Brazil. The USDA WASDE report is set to be released tomorrow, with early speculation suggesting a slight increase in US soybean ending stocks, though still at the lowest level in eight years. It’s also anticipated that US production will be adjusted downward based on lower yields. Bids for soybeans range from $15.50 to $16.00 per bushel, depending on the location. Dry bean bids are expected to receive late-season support from Mexican demand due to lower production. Feed quality fabas continue to be supported by pet food values. Local bids for export-quality #2 faba beans range from $11.50 to $12.00 per bushel FOB farm, while feed quality values are around $9.00 to $10.00 per bushel FOB farm, depending on the location.
Chickpea markets are reporting smaller sized, but favourable quality crops in Canada and a shortage of supply in India, which should lead to increased demand from North America. However, Canadian buyers remain cautious, and market values have seen a slight drop in the past seven days. Globally, the Indian government has increased the Minimum Support price for chickpeas by 2%, while lentils and wheat are up by 7%. This does not necessarily indicate concerns for chickpea production in India, but it is still early to determine whether this will discourage Indian growers. Reports suggest that Argentina’s production will be notable, but it may not have a substantial impact on market prices. Current #2 large kabuli chickpeas are bid at around $0.52 per pound FOB farm for January to February. This lower value reflects buyers’ response to the emergence of smaller sizes and the belief that a significant portion of large-sized chickpeas has already been exhausted from the market. While the #2 market has seen some changes, the lower quality and sample grade market remains flexible, with bids around $0.36 per pound FOB farm. Discussions regarding new crop plans and increased acreage are ongoing, but final decisions are still some time away, and weather conditions will play a significant role in determining the outcome.
Despite last week’s report mentioning that canaryseed production is down this crop year, the price continues to struggle. Export demand remains slow and sluggish compared to previous years. It appears that the canary price has softened again this week, with bids now in the low 40-cent range per pound FOB farm. There might be a possibility of reaching 41 cents for a Jan-Feb movement, but options are limited. Shipping timeframes will significantly influence price determination, so it’s a good idea to contact your merchant for the latest information. New crop pricing is uncertain, given the current weakness in spot prices. Feel free to give us a call if you’d like to explore the possibility of putting up an offer in the 35-cent range with an ‘act of God’ clause. If you require new seed for the spring, please let us know.
The canola market has seen a healthy increase since last Wednesday. January futures are currently sitting at $701.7/MT at time of writing, up from last week’s $677/MT. Soybean prices are on the rise due to weather concerns (rain) affecting Brazilian production. If these concerns persist, there’s potential for soybean prices to increase further due to quality issues, which should offer a glimmer of optimism in the canola market. This may especially ring true if South America encounters challenges on the crushing side, which could drive canola prices upward further. It’s still early, so we’ll need to wait and see how things develop; perhaps there is still hope for an upward trend in pricing. Locally, there’s enthusiasm surrounding the proposed canola crushing plant and renewable diesel project, scheduled to begin construction in 2024/2025. If everything aligns as planned, this project could provide more opportunities in the domestic market.
Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.