Canola markets continue to face challenges, with futures dropping further this week. At the time of writing, both November and January futures sit below $710/MT, signaling a possible dip below the $700/MT mark soon. This situation mirrors what we’ve been observing for the past couple of weeks. Despite reduced overall production this year, export demand has also declined, leading to a lull in the market. A decrease in production doesn’t necessarily translate into better post-harvest pricing as canola trades on a global scale, and although we see weaker Canadian stocks, importers are finding new homes to replace the lost tonnage. The million-dollar question remains: Where is this market headed? Unfortunately, recent indications are not pointing towards a significant increase in futures anytime soon.
Pea markets maintained their stability this week with minimal changes in values across all varieties. Maple peas have experienced a slight decline in demand, with posted prices now hovering around $24.00/bu FOB farm bid. However, it’s worth noting that firm targets above posted bids may still catch the attention of buyers. Green peas continue to trade at approximately $16.50/bu FOB farm for #2 or better quality, and there are a few buyers inquiring about higher bleach product. If you have peas that fall outside #2 spec, please don’t hesitate to get in touch with us, and we’ll work bids based on your quality. Among the three major types, yellow peas continue to see the lowest values, ranging from $10.00 to $10.50/bu. However, late yesterday, a few companies raised their bids to $11.00/bu delivered plant, suggesting a potential revival in their market.
Barley prices have remained consistent this week, ranging between $5.50 and $6.00/bu picked up. However, delivery timelines vary, and in some cases, top end bids are showing delivery windows pushed out beyond the new year. In comparison, corn continues to be a more cost-effective option for feedlots and buyers are not anticipating any shortages this year. Considering all these factors, gradual/incremental sales may make sense on this year’s books. On the malt side of things, although locking down firm bids can be challenging, there is some interest with indications hovering around $7.00 to $7.25 per bushel FOB. Rather than waiting for more active price movements, it’s advisable to have malt specs on hand and present offers to potential purchasers.
Canary prices are stable this week, currently quoted at 45 cents per pound FOB farm. Yield estimates from September’s reports have seen little change, but the actual number of seeded acres remains uncertain. Some analysts speculate that there may be more acres planted than officially reported. If this is the case, it could provide some relief to tighter supplies, although not to the extent of a significant production increase. In recent months, the outlook for canary exports has been relatively muted, with most Canadian products headed to Mexico and lower exports from Argentina to Brazil. Given canaryseed serves as a pricier option for bird feed, reduced exports might be an indicator that demand will remain relatively stable.
Mustard prices have experienced a slight decline this week, attributed to reduced end-user demand according to local purchasers. Most buyers are currently more focused on managing production contract movement rather than actively pursuing uncontracted tonnage. Sellers are not aggressively pushing sales either. Many sellers believe that this year’s crop was not as robust as desired, and they anticipate better opportunities in the future, so they are adopting a wait-and-see approach. Some have only produced enough to fulfill existing commitments, with little or no surplus for sale. Current pricing options are not particularly remarkable when compared to the past couple of years, but they can be considered quite strong historically. Oriental and brown mustard prices are currently in the mid-70s for bids, while yellow mustard is showing values in the mid-80s. Having firm targets in place might garner a slight premium, as there is some interest in such offers, but buyers are generally not aggressively pursuing high value offers at this time.
Flax markets in Canada are well-informed about the recent harvest, and despite its smaller size, there’s still a substantial supply of last year’s production in storage. As a result, both buyers and sellers aren’t overly concerned about facing a supply shortage when meeting export demands. China has been consistently importing flax from Canada, as well as sourcing it from Russia and Kazakhstan, even though some may consider the prices to be on the higher side. What remains uncertain is how long this demand will persist, given the readily available product. European flax has experienced a slight decrease in value recently, which could potentially discourage interest in Canadian supply from EU purchasers. While exports continue and local trade is consistent, market stability is currently uncertain. Current crop bids are around $17 per bushel FOB farm for November-December, and there have been discussions about new crop values, but no official bids have been made thus far.
Regarding chickpea production, discussions have highlighted a notable issue with sizing this year. Growers have been proactive in assessing sizing and grades ahead of marketing, and a significant number of Canadian growers are reporting that 40-50% of their chickpeas are 7mm in size. Conversely, growers on the other side of the border are not experiencing the same widespread issue. Many are reporting high percentages of 8mm and 9mm, with low 7mm sizing and yields being average or above average. It will be an interesting year for marketing, particularly in determining where the supply will end up, especially with pet food being a major consumer of undersized chickpeas. There is already talk of an expected increase in chickpea acreage next year due to disease management and crop rotation, but pricing remains uncertain. The value for chickpeas has remained unchanged for the week, and sellers are strongly encouraged to make the most of the current market conditions.
The oat market has remained relatively stable compared to the previous week. Milling bids, which vary depending on farm location and the expected timeframe of delivery, are currently in the range of $4.75 to $5.25 per bushel for on-farm pickup. To enhance your chances of securing bids, it’s advisable to provide product specifications when communicating with your merchant. On the feed side, bids are fluctuating in the low $4 range per bushel, with a preference for oats with heavier bushel weights. If you have light weight product, it’s a good idea to inform your merchant so they can work on securing an appropriate value.
The wheat market faced some challenges yesterday, with attempts to stabilize and exit the red zone on today’s chart – so far unsuccessful. Milling wheat bids for 13.5 protein have declined to approximately $9.25-$9.30 per bushel, delivered in central Saskatchewan, depending on the delivery timeframe. In contrast, feed values are hovering at $8-$8.25 per bushel for on-farm pickup. This price difference is prompting many to await a potential price increase, albeit with some anxiety. In global news, Indonesia has edged out Egypt to claim the top position in the list of the top 10 wheat importers. Shifting to durum, bids have receded slightly, with the highest prices reaching around $14 delivered in western Saskatchewan for deferred movement into late spring 2024.
The “shine” has finally worn off red lentils this week, with prices falling by at least 2 cents since Friday, and in some cases, even more. Red lentils are currently priced from as low as 32 cents for immediate delivery to 35-35.5 cents for December-January movement. Reports suggest that Australia has begun making forward sales, and North America is experiencing a lack of export activity due to this. Early predictions continue to indicate smaller Canadian and Australian crops, but the extent of this reduction’s impact on the market remains uncertain. Green lentils have also seen modest price declines, typically by one or two cents, and the market appears to be in a state of pause. Large greens are trading in the range of 62-63 cents, small greens at 58-60 cents, and medium greens at 42-43 cents in USD. The major question at this moment revolves around whether global turmoil will have a positive or negative effect on the markets.
The soybean market is currently in search of direction, with the upcoming October USDA report looming on the horizon. Traders are taking steps to square their positions, and the futures prices reflect a sense of caution among market participants. Adding to the mix, today, exporters have announced two substantial soybean sales to China and an undisclosed destination. Bids for soybeans fall within the range of $15.25 to $15.75 per bushel, depending on the farm location. Meanwhile, the dry bean market is expected to gain support later in the season due to increased demand from Mexico and reduced production. However, it is currently facing challenges from an oversupply of old crop carryover stocks. Canadian faba bean volumes are projected to decrease year over year, while feed quality faba beans continue to enjoy support from the pet food industry. For those dealing with #2 export quality faba beans, local bids range from $11.50 to $12.00 per bushel, depending on the farm’s location. Feed quality faba beans are fetching values in the vicinity of $10.00 to $10.50 per bushel, with the price being location dependent.
Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.