Flax prices are up slightly from last week, with some buyers showing bids at $16.50/bu FOB on brown varieties and up to $18.00/bu FOB on yellow. For the most part, bids are pushed into the new year for those values, but the odd trade is being done for Nov/Dec. Buyers have had some aggressive bids to meet export sales and with the low carry-over, 2020/21 supplies are projected to be tight again going forward. There are some unanswered questions about the size of the Russian / Kazakh crop, but for the time being, the rally in prices overseas has stalled out as the end of harvest season approaches. With these early strength in prices, we know that there is something happening in the market, but no one is reporting an actual disaster anywhere.
Stability in a market would typically be a good thing, but when talking chickpeas, we are all on the edge of our seats waiting for something to happen. News out of Argentina give initial reports of issues with the quality of the chickpea harvest. They are still a few weeks away from harvest, but this does give the ray of hope everyone is waiting for. Despite the uncertainty there is one thing that rings true, growers have waited this long and will continue to wait before moving chickpeas below their target prices. While buyers are more interested in purchasing, the bids remain the same. Jan-Feb bids for #2 Kabuli’s hit $0.30/lb FOB farm, but nearby remains $0.27-$0.28/lb FOB farm. Sample/feed bids at $0.14/lb FOB farm.
The yellow and maple pea market had a few prices bumps this week. Yellows saw bids up to $8.25/bu delivered to a couple areas within Saskatchewan, while maple peas traded at $9.00/bu picked up for movement into the new year. Green peas remain stable at $9.00/bu picked, but there is less grower interest at this price point and fewer trades being done. Right now, most of our export interest has been coming from China, which has been the major supporter in yellow pea bids. As farmers becoming more bullish, we may also see bids firm up into the new year as bin doors remain closed. As per reports, India still has not been a big player in the market, therefore, if anything changes and they start looking to import again, we can only expect the pea market to become more bullish. On the other hand, should India remain a non-player and China decides to step back, we could see values fall.
The oats market has been fairly quiet as of late as buyers have been mostly bought up in the nearby windows. We have a few buyers posting bids delivered out into Manitoba on a #2 milling oat at $3.70 to $3.80/bu into spring and summer months. If you are looking for a FOB farm price we can work that back for you, just touch base with your favorite merchant. If you have milling oats and want to move them this fall, we do have some options, but the prices likely work back to $2.60 to $2.95/bu range on farm pending location. Feed prices on the oats seem to have settled in at $2.25 to $2.50/bu range on farm but there has been the occasional opportunity to sell heavy feed oats at stronger levels.
Canary seed continues to plant its flag and remain firmly entrenched, trading sideways again this week. That being said, most will take trading sideways at $0.30 – $0.31c/lb as a win on a commodity that historically bangs its head on the ceiling at those levels. On the export side, things have been quiet these last couple months as inventory was on the lighter side and product wasn’t off yet. Though, we may start to see export numbers creep up a bit as product is now in the bins and the price remains supported. There may be room to give on pricing moving forward, but at the same time the canary seed market can also be pretty finicky and cool down in a hurry when quotas are meet.
Planting delays in Brazil due to dry weather and labor disputes at Argentina crush plants has offered more strength to the soybean complex. US soybean harvest is well underway and could wrap up in early September if good harvest weather continues to hold. Local soybean bids now hover around $11.00-$11.50/bu picked up depending on location. Fabas bids are aligned with long term trading values at $7.50 -$8.00/bu for #2 export quality. Increased global competition and the reestablishment of typical global trade patterns will regulate our local faba bids. North American dry bean harvest is approaching completion. Common classes of beans are expecting large production increase this year, whereas specialty beans will see tighter production volumes. Dry bean demand still exists, and buyers will be interested in purchasing any new crop contract overages.
Overall barley production and quality is a positive “glass half-full” situation this year, with most producers giving favorable reports for both. Feed barley bids are quite strong for this time of season and bids are plus/minus $5/bu FOB farm in SE AB and SW SK. Values start to drift closer to $4.50/bu FOB farm as you move east further away from feedlot alley. Malt bids are sparse and maintain a very narrow premium to feed bids, thus many producers are opting to sell feed. Casual reports indicate malt bids are near $5.00/bu delivered with small variety specific premiums.
Lentils remain solid this week as all varieties and colours either hold their value or see slight increases. Reds seem to have settled in between that 27 cent and 28 cent mark and likely won’t see much change until we hear what India is going to do with tariffs at the end of the month. Green lentils on the other hand have strengthened slightly with #2 large greens at 36 cents FOB farm for Nov/ Dec movement. Small greens also seen an uptick and are trading as high as 31 cents picked up in some cases. The Saskatchewan crop report states this year’s lentil crop yielded 1487lbs/acre compared to 1413lbs/acre last year and harvest is 100% complete compared to only 93% the year prior. The report did not say what this year’s grade breakdown was for the lentils but based on good harvest conditions and what we’ve seen so far, majority will likely be #1/#2 grade.
Wheat prices have continued to gain strength this week as some dryness in the US and Russia causes some concerns. In the Black sea, wheat prices continue to climb despite last year’s crop showing strong yield. This all comes after the USDA stayed neutral on wheat ending stocks in their latest report. Milling wheat is trading locally around the $6.75-$7/bu delivered range. On the feed side of the market, bids have gained strength and range from $5.50-$6/bushel FOB farm depending on location and movement timeframe.
November canola futures sit at $526/MT at time of writing. This is up slightly from the same time last week when they were at $525/MT. There was very little fluctuation in price over the past week, despite the USDA report coming out last Friday and dropping expected soybean acres slightly. There is a bit of carry into the January futures, which sit at $533/MT today. The next big report for Western Canada will be the StatsCan production report on December 3rd. That will play a large role in which way this market heads moving forward.
Once again, mustard prices remain in the same range as previous weeks. We have seen slight bumps over the past month on yellow and oriental, but reports continue of very sluggish shipping and demand from overseas, so bids remain basically flat for now. Bids today are sitting at $0.40/lb FOB farm for yellow; show us offers at $0.41 as they might be looked at for shipping in the new year. Brown sits at 30 to 31 cents/lb; again the 31 cents may be available for shipping further out. Oriental Forge sits at 27 to 28 cents depending on movement and cutlass is at 25 to 26 cents for new year shipping, both FOB farm. We are now creeping up on the end of October and it may be a good time to actually start new crop contracting soon. Call your merchant with offers and the latest in prices.
Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.