No change this week in the feed wheat market. Low vomi feed wheat trades today around $4.75/bu picked up in the yard in most areas of the prairies assuming it is under 1 PPM Vomitoxin, heavy and dry. In certain areas, that price may be able to get closer to $5.00/bu when put out on firm offer so be sure to keep in contact with your merchant on what values you are looking for. For feed wheat that is over 1 PPM Vomitoxin, the price will be around $4.00/bu picked up depending on location. We are still seeing some stronger opportunities for durum in the South-East corner of Saskatchewan. $7.75/bu picked up will work depending on location based on a #1 US durum spec with a discount schedule to be applied. If you have any interest ask your merchant to discuss the discount schedule and price in your area.
We have seen a slight bump in flax prices this week with some bids at $12.25/bu delivered to plant on a #1 quality. We are also seeing up to $12.50/bu picked up on milling quality for a later movement. US and European prices have moved up over the last couple of weeks, however Russia and Kazakhstan are sitting on comfortable supplies, so these increases could be short term. Once Chinese demand firms up, we could see more strength in the Canadian prices. The yellow flax market has been quiet with prices indicated at $14.50 delivered and not much for buying interest. For those with off quality/ spring thrashed flax left on farm, we still have options for that. Call your Rayglen merchant to discuss.
Lentils had another week of price softness on all varieties. Markets look bearish for the near future as trades slow and buyers remain hesitant to stick their necks out and become a price leader. With India expecting to export lentils, imports should slow down for the short term, which does not encourage price improvement. Large green lentils, according to our buyers, are fighting pigeon pea and the differential in value of other sources of food. Based on today’s information, Australian crops are going to be decent and India has potential for another large pulse crop. This does not hold well for pricing going into the new year. If for some reason these situations change for the worse, we may see some price stabilization if not a slight increase. The next real price influencing factors will be: North American moisture levels going into seeding, number of seeded acres in western Canada and 2017 carry over. Large carry out from ‘17, combined with good moisture and average seeded acres in ’18 would limit late spring/ summer time rallies. If we see improved export numbers to decrease carry out and low moisture with decreased acres then things likely improve, but any other combination is expected to change much. Prices of old crop large green #2 lentils are still profitable at the 34¢/lbs to 36¢/lb range. Reds at $0.20/lb are getting closer to most farmers break even points, but are still profitable on normal yields. If you haven’t sold any lentils, it may be a good time to sit down and run the numbers and lock in a profit before we see continued price weakness.
The chickpea market is starting to get a little more quiet in recent weeks as many buyers have tapered off the aggressive push for product and seem to be trading a little more hand to mouth. On large kabulis bids still hover around 65-70 cents at the yard for #2 quality depending on sizing. These bids are still a great opportunity to finish the 2017 crop sales if you have not yet sold your production. Desi chickpeas are currently bid around 30 cents per lb picked up in the yard for the handful of growers that are still dabbling in desi crops. We do have fall 2018 pricing on kabulis available at 43 cent range for #2 quality if you have your seed and plan to grow kabulis.
The mustard market continues sideways this week, but at relatively strong prices on both brown and yellow. #1 yellow and brown mustard are both trading at $0.40/lb picked up in the yard, while oriental mustard is at $0.32-0.34/lb picked up in the yard. Movement is mostly in the new year, but if you need movement quicker, limited tonnage may be available for faster delivery at those levels. We do have options at slightly lower values for quicker movement as well if you are needing bin space or cash flow. It’s never too early to start thinking about next year, so be sure to give us a call to discuss seed and 2018 new crop contracts. We have treated seed available, delivered to your yard.
Yellow pea bids were looking a little more favorable this week. We had pricing come up to $8.25-8.00/bu delivered to multiple plants with $8.00 FOB still attainable in the Southeast corner of Saskatchewan. Reading through a stat report, we still haven’t seen a resolution for the Indian fumigation issue. However, this shouldn’t halt the importing of Canadian peas, it will just keep pricing under pressure. What is keeping pricing at bay is the competition we are seeing. Russia, Ukraine and Europe are still moving peas into India at more favorable values. India also has a comfortable amount of their own desi chickpeas and peas. It is expected that yellow peas will remain sideways for the year and green peas should show some strength later into 2017-2018.
Feed barley this week has pulled back with bids starting to feel pressure as feedlots increasing their corn rations. With an over supply and low prices, corn is taking the place of thousands of tonnes of barley, so until we see corn markets rally our barley prices will continue to be depressed. Bids today are around $3.50/bu FOB farm in most areas. We aren’t seeing anything for quick movement malt, but we are indicating $4.25 picked up in certain areas for Oct- July 2018 movement on Copeland/ Metcalfe, and 6 row varieties.
The oat market has continued its sideways trend over the past week, although there has been renewed interest in some feed oats. We have seen buyer interest in some lower quality feed oats with pricing ranging from $1.75-$2.00/bu picked up in the yard for January movement. This price likely works for light, heated and slightly high moisture oats. Value increases as we move south and east of Regina. Milling oats remain around $2.50/bu picked up in the yard out of South West Saskatchewan, with slightly lower bids the further north you go.
Canola futures dipped slightly lower today following soybeans and a stronger currency. The Canadian dollar moved half a cent in the positive direction making canola less attractive to foreign buyers. Soybean markets also had marginal losses today, pulling canola down with it. Basis levels remain attractive though, right around -$15/MT delivered to plant. After November’s $1.00/MT loss, the future value sits at $498.20/MT. January futures are slightly better coming in over $500/MT. Bids today work back to roughly $11.00/bu delivered or $10.50FOB in West-central Saskatchewan. Contact your broker for more information and firm bids FOB your farm.
Harvest has been completed for much of the prairies and the last few canary acres are getting wrapped up as well. As of last Friday, 94% of canaryseed was reported to be in the bin. The estimated yield has bumped up too, from 22bu per acre to around 26bu per acre, as yields weren’t quite as bad as farmers originally thought. The estimated tonnage is around 130,000 to 135,000, which is an estimated 15,000MT over earlier Statscan estimates. It will also bump supplies to 215,000 tonnes total. Canaryseed has been trading around 20.5c/lb FOB the farm. If you are looking for current and most up to date pricing, please call your Rayglen merchant.
Soybean futures rallied 28 cents in response to the latest USDA report, in which the estimated soybean 17/18 ending stocks were shaved from 475 million bushels to 430 million bushels vs 301 million bushels for 16/17. Keep in mind that this rally occurred on the doorstep of an estimated record high US soybean harvest of 4.43 billion bushels. Since Friday the market has back-pedaled about 20 cents but still remains 20 cents above Thursdays pre-report open. The next big soybean production story is Brazil (planting now), and early estimates for the March 2018 harvest is 3.93 billion bushels. Current Brazilian planting conditions are dry, providing a bullish tone to global soybeans considering the forecasted razor thin 90 million bushel Brazilian 17/18 ending stocks. Local soybean bids are $10.50/bu FOB farm range. Faba bean average yields appear to be 33-35 BPA once northern growing areas are factored in. Recent protein fractionation facility announcements should offer additional future markets for fabas. Local faba bean bids are in the $6.00-$6.20/bu FOB farm range.
Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.