The feed wheat market remains sideways this week as the recent drier and warmer weather has finally allowed a considerable amount of harvesting to get done and the harvest pressure we normally see much earlier seems to have set in later. Current feed bids are hovering from $5 to $5.50 range depending on where you are located in the province. High moisture discounts have notched up a bit with the continuation of harvest as lots of tough and damp product have hit the trade and many end users are quoting $6/mt per point over dry (14.5%). If you are looking for a market on milling wheat we do have some options popping up here and there so touch base with the office for further details, but bids are in the high $6’s per bushel as a delivered to plant number as of late.
Canola prices are down again from last week. Prices indicating $10.40-$10.50/bu delivered to plant in Sask. While Australian canola production is likely dropping to it’s lowest levels since 2008-09, it is still recommended to get some canola sold from many analysts. The main capping issue for canola price this year is cheap US origin soybeans. Record soy yield will be the first step towards prices remaining flat unless 2019 delivers a wreck. Market attitude implies that Sask canola pricing does not need to trade at $11.50-$12.00/bu like the past couple of years. If you have missed some spot opportunities to sell over the last few weeks at the $11.00/bu range, there could be a shot in a couple of months, however, there is also the risk of South American yield potential. Call your Rayglen merchant to get a FOB price out of your area.
The mustard market this week has been fairly consistent, and prices have not fluctuated a whole lot. There has been definite improvement in the weather the last few weeks which has helped to get the last 20% of the remaining mustard harvest in Saskatchewan cleared up, there may still be a few stragglers, but the majority of the crop is in the bins now. Late harvesting has not provided any bolster to the mustard prices as the world supplies are still comfortable but not burdensome. Yellow mustard has been trading around 33 to 34 c/lb and brown mustard has been sitting around 31 c/lb. Oriental mustard of the forge variety has been trading around 27 c/lb while Cutlass type oriental is majorly discounted with indications of 23 c/lb. If you have contracted mustard and have not already sent representative samples to your buyer, please do so as soon as possible.
This week we are seeing a bit of a bump in pea prices. With demand from China and elsewhere, prices are moving up about 25 cents per bushel on both yellow and green peas. With most peas off now with the nice weather we are starting to see more trades go through. We have buyers that are looking for both yellow and green peas for prompt movement, so if you are needing the bin space talk with your merchant. Today’s prices on yellow peas are $6.50/bu FOB farm, and greens peas at $8.50/bu FOB farm both depending on freight. But not sure how long peas will hold at these prices though. Left Field Special crops cautions that “Once this latest round of buying is over, bids could turn sideways for awhile until fresh demand shows up again. Further gains are still expected as the 2018/19 season progresses.” Time will tell what comes to pass but some good news back in the market is welcomed for sure.
Reports of record soybean production indicate commercial markets will likely not tolerate quality issues without large discounts. This in turn could provide some gain on #2 quality beans with a deep spread down. Locally #1 Soybean prices @ $10.25-10.50/bu FOB farm. Fears of a global Faba bean shortage has spiked buyers interest in Canadian production. Egypt has relaxed their standards on import quality with continued news out of Australia of damage cause by drought to their faba production. Prices for #2 quality hovering around $9.50/bu FOB farm for specific zero tannin varieties with a bullish feel.
Canary seed harvest was making good progress this past week and more calls were coming in regarding picked up pricing. Canary seed was trading at 24 cents delivered to plant or 23.5 cents/lb picked up on firm offer. Looking at Stat reports, Argentina’s production is expected to be down from the 5-year average which will allow for more opportunities into Brazil for Canada. Currently, our pricing seems to be on par with the 2017 high that we reached due to drought concerns. It may still take some time to see how small the 2018 crop is, but supplies seem to be limited which is keeping pricing firm.
The barley market has not changed a lot since last week meaning the price has not deviated and sales have been light. Grain coming off this week seems to be drier than most producers expected but there is still enough tough barley for everyone to deal with. Most companies have reasonable discount schedules to compensate for tough and/or light weight product. Often the discounts we are seeing are roughly 8¢/bu for 15.6%-16% moisture up to 24¢ for max 17%. The same sort of scale is being used for test weights under 57lbs/bu and most will take grain testing as low as 53 lbs/bu. These are options to consider when thinking about drying grain this fall; is the grain worth the cost of drying or are the discounts reasonable enough to just sell “as is” before the market fills up on tough grain and the discounts change.
Very little news coming out of the chickpea market this week as prices remain flat across the board. With Australia having a poor growing season, desi chickpeas are still sitting strong at 28 cents/lb picked up in the yard for #2 quality. If you are looking for some desi seed for the upcoming year it may be difficult to find but let us know as we are working on lining some up and we may be able to help you out. Large Kabuli chickpeas are trading around 23 cents/lb picked up on the farm for across the board pricing. If you have Kabuli’s with a large number of 9/10 mm chickpeas, let us know as we may be able to find a slightly higher price for a premium product. We always have options on the feed side as well if you have any out of spec product around so be sure to let us know what you have.
Lentil ending stocks were updated last Friday by AAFC. Large carryover inventory due to slow global demand, will increase the total available supply year over year by 8% or 233,000 MT. Some minor adjustments were made to production and exports, ultimately resulting in a 2018-19 carryout of 750,000 MT or 31% stocks-to-use ratio. Granted this is a reduced stocks-to-use ratio versus 2017-18, but we are dealing with a 330,000 MT decrease in production so rightfully so. Specifically, red lentil production is down year over year and green lentil production is up. The over-arching market sentiment is lack luster demand. Recent export stats indicate higher seasonal shipments. However, many in the trade feel we are simply shifted slightly ahead of the curve and we are destined to lock into a similar reduced shipping trough to 2017-2018. Red lentils show no real sign of a breakout and remain around 15 ¢/lb picked up for #2, large green lentils are hovering around 17-17.5 ¢/lb picked up for #2 and small green lentils 16-16.5 ¢/lb picked up for #1.
We are getting reports of serious advancement in the flax harvest province wide over the last 10 days. The weather delays that were concerning, are easing. Samples still seem to be grading #1 so far and with the weather continuing for another handful of days before turning, things are looking much better than they were only 2 weeks ago. Prices though, have had under-lying strength even through all the weather changes. Canadian prices are $13.00/bu picked up for milling quality, while yellow flax is indicating $13.50/bu picked up with fewer sales. For #1 product, $12.75 FOB has traded for November movement. We would be interested in your offer in that $12.75 to $13 FOB range for #1 in hopes of that trading in the near future. Let your merchant know and come up with an appropriate target for you.
Milling oats have been strong the past couple weeks as bids in Sask have pushed to $3.25 to $3.40/bu range as delivered prices in many areas and in the far southeast corner of Saskatchewan some of those numbers are attainable as a FOB farm number as the roll product into Manitoba. If you have a number in mind we have buyers looking for firm targets that they can work with so touch base with your favorite merchant in the office. Feed oats markets have been maintaining prices around $2.50/bu picked up in the yard in most areas of the province with freight premiums in a few pockets.
Rayglen Market Comments are for informational purposes only. Rayglen Commodities and its agents or employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of reliance on any of the contents contained within these products, whether such loss or damage arises from negligence or misrepresentation or any act or omission of its agents or employees.